建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

基于AHP-熵权法的基层地震科普能力评价*

为提高基层地震科普评价工作的客观性和精准性,根据“环境-投入-产出-效果”的评价框架,建立涵盖保障能力、队伍能力、设施能力、产出能力、活动能力5类26项指标的基层地震科普能力评价指标体系,选用AHP-熵权法计算指标的组合权重;以天津为例进行验证,并提出相关工作建议。结果表明:建立的评价模型对于开展定量化的区域基层地震科普能力评价具有较强的参考价值,评价结果与实际情况基本相符;天津市基层地震科普在硬件建设方面取得较好成效,但整体能力依然偏弱,16个区平均得分仅为0.344 8;发展不平衡、软实力不足是制约当前发展最重要的2个因素;提出相关的工作建议可为优化基层科普工作布局、提高工作实效提供有益参考。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

Lower flammability limits of flammable ternary organic mixtures: Synergistic behavior

Organic flammable liquids and their mixtures, which possess high risk of combustion and explosion, are widely used as raw materials and solvents in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Lower flammability limits (LFL) is one of the most important parameters to characterize the combustion and explosion hazards of combustible gases and liquid vapors. The LFL of various ternary organic mixtures consist of ketone (acetone and butanone), ester (ethyl acetate) and alcohol (ethanol and isopropanol) were tested at 25 °C and atmospheric pressure. The results showed that resulted LFL values of the experiment were always lower than those calculated by volume fraction weighting method when the volume fraction of alcohol was less than 20 vol% but more than 10 vol%. The co-existence of alcohol and ethyl acetate had synergistic effect on reducing the LFL values of ternary organic mixtures and thus increased their explosive risk. The mechanism of synergistic effect was analyzed, and the results showed that the OH· and H· radicals produced by the oxidation decomposition of alcohols and esters accelerated the oxidation process of ternary organic mixtures, which led to the decrease of experimental LFL values and thus corresponding increased of their explosive risk. This study would be expected to provide some guidance for designing or choosing safer and more suitable ternary organic mixtures prior to their applications for engineering.     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷,提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态;依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量;根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系,针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题,采用模糊证据推理技术,通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例,验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确,是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题,采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法,计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率;在此基础上,以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络,建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型,对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下,由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大,从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析,贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

波浪与抛石潜堤相互作用的MPS法数值模型研究

为了研究波浪与抛石潜堤相互作用过程中大自由表面变形和堤内渗流等强非线性紊流运动问题,利用改进的MPS法,建立了模拟波浪与抛石潜堤相互作用的MPS法数值计算模型。模型将抛石潜堤假定为均质多孔介质,采用Drew的二相流运动方程描述多孔介质内外的流体运动;通过在动量方程中增加非线性阻力项,并引入亚粒子尺度紊流模型,模拟波浪与可渗结构物相互作用过程中的紊流运动。选取“U”型管中多孔介质内渗流过程和孤立波与可渗潜堤相互作用两个典型的渗流问题,通过将数值计算结果与理论解和实测值的对比分析,对所提出的MPS法紊流渗流模型的模拟精度进行验证。结果表明：基于改进的MPS法构建的垂向二维紊流渗流模型可以很好地再现 “U”型管中多孔介质内渗流以及波浪作用下可渗潜堤内外的复杂流场,显著缓解流-固界面处的压力震荡与粒子分布不均匀问题,实现了较高的模拟精度。     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

基于改进的SPAR-H化工实验室人因可靠性分析

近年来化工实验室事故屡禁不止,其中人的不安全行为是导致事故发生的主要原因.为评估实验人员可靠性,进一步管控化工实验室人的不安全行为,基于标准化工厂人因可靠性分析(SPAR-H)方法,结合化工实验室人因失误的特点,确定了更加适用于化工实验室的人因可靠性分析方法.首先依据"S-O-P"认知模型对人因失误类型进行划分;然后基...