Pedestrian fatality and impact speed squared: Cloglog modeling from French national data

Objective: The present study estimates pedestrians' risk of death according to impact speed when hit by a passenger car in a frontal collision.

Methods: Data were coded for all fatal crashes in France in 2011 and for a random sample of 1/20th of all road injuries for the same year and weighted to take into account police underreporting of mild injury. A cloglog model was used to optimize risk adjustment for high collision speeds. The fit of the model on the data was also improved by using the square of the impact speed, which best matches the energy dissipated in the collision.

Results: Modeling clearly demonstrated that the risk of death was very close to 1 when impact speeds exceeded 80 km/h. For speeds less than 40 km/h, because data representative of all crashes resulting in injury were used, the estimated risk of death was fairly low. However, although the curve seemed deceptively flat below 50 km/h, the risk of death in fact rose 2-fold between 30 and 40 km/h and 6-fold between 30 and 50 km/h. For any given speed, the risk of death was much higher for more elderly subjects, especially those over 75 years of age. These results concern frontal crashes involving a passenger car. Collisions involving trucks are far less frequent, but half result in the pedestrian being run over, incurring greater mortality.

Conclusions: For impact speeds below 60 km/h, the shape of the curve relating probability of death to impact speed was very similar to those reported in recent rigorous studies. For higher impact speeds, the present model allows the curve to rise ever more steeply, giving a much better fit to observed data. The present results confirm that, when a pedestrian is struck by a car, impact speed is a major risk factor, thus providing a supplementary argument for strict speed limits in areas where pedestrians are highly exposed.     

Surveillance of traffic incident management–related occupational fatalities in Kentucky, 2005–2016

Objective: Traffic incidents occurring on roadways require the coordinated effort of multiple responder and recovery entities, including communications, law enforcement, fire and rescue, emergency medical services, hazardous materials, transportation agencies, and towing and recovery. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify and characterize transportation incident management (TIM)-related occupational fatalities; (2) assess concordance of surveillance data sources in identifying TIM occupations, driver vs. pedestrian status, and occupational fatality incident location; and (3) determine and compare U.S. occupational fatality rates for TIM industries.

Methods: The Kentucky Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation (FACE) program analyzed 2005–2016 TIM occupational fatality data using multiple data sources: death certificate data, Collision Report Analysis for Safer Highways (CRASH) data, and media reports, among others. Literal text analysis was performed on FACE data, and a multiple linear regression model and SAS proc sgpanel were used to estimate and visualize the U.S. TIM occupational mortality trend lines and confidence bounds.

Results: There were 29 TIM fatalities from 2005 to 2015 in Kentucky; 41% of decedents were in the police protection occupation, and 21% each were in the fire protection and motor vehicle towing industries. Over one half of the TIM decedents were performing work activities as pedestrians when they died. Media reports identified the majority of the occupational fatalities as TIM related (28 of 29 TIM-related deaths); the use of death certificates as the sole surveillance data source only identified 17 of the 29 deaths as TIM related, and the use of CRASH data only identified 4 of the 29 deaths as TIM related. Injury scenario text analysis showed that law enforcement vehicle pursuit, towing and recovery vehicle loading, and disabled vehicle response were particular high-risk activities that led to TIM deaths. Using U.S. data, the motor vehicle towing industry had a significantly higher risk for occupational mortality compared to the fire protection and police protection industries.

Conclusions: Multiple data sources are needed to comprehensively identify TIM fatalities and to examine the circumstances surrounding TIM fatalities, because no one data source in itself was adequate and undercounted the total number of TIM fatalities. The motor vehicle towing industry, in particular, is at elevated risk for occupational mortality, and targeted mandatory TIM training for the motor vehicle towing industry should be considered. In addition, enhanced law enforcement roadside safety training during vehicle pursuit and apprehension of suspects is recommended.     

Testing the validity of the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF) used to assess UK safety measures

The “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), the maximum amount that it is notionally reasonable to pay for a safety measure that will reduce by one the expected number of preventable premature deaths in a large population, is published by the UK Department for Transport (DfT). The figure, updated for changes in GDP per head, is used by the DfT, the Health and Safety Executive and other UK regulatory bodies as well as very widely in the process, nuclear and other industries as the standard by which to judge how much to spend to reduce harm to humans. The paper tests the validity of the 1999 study on which the VPF is based and finds that that study fails numerous tests of its validity. It is concluded that there is no evidential base for the VPF that has been used for many years in the UK and is still in standard use today. Given the difficulties evident in the interpretation of survey results, an urgent re-appraisal is needed of alternative statistical methodologies that can allow robust regulatory and industry safety decision making and, vitally, give adequate protection to the UK public and to those working in the UK's transport, process, nuclear and other industries.     

Poverty as a determinant of young drivers' fatal crash risks

Problem

U.S. teenaged and young-adult drivers' elevated rates of fatal traffic crash involvement typically are attributed to biological and developmental risk-taking associated with young age. However, young drivers differ from older ones along several sociodemographic dimensions, including higher poverty rates and greater concentration in poorer areas, which may contribute to their risks.

Method

Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System, Census, and Federal Highway Administration data for 1994-2007, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted of fatal motor-vehicle crash involvements per 100 million miles driven by driver age (16 through 74) and state along with 14 driver-, vehicle-, and state-level variables.

Results

Driver age was not a significant predictor of fatal crash risk once several factors associated with high poverty status (more occupants per vehicle, smaller vehicle size, older vehicle age, lower state per-capita income, lower state population density, more motor-vehicle driving, and lower education levels) were controlled. These risk factors were significantly associated with each other and with higher crash involvement among adult drivers as well.

Summary and Discussion

The strong association between fatal crash risk and environments of poverty as operationalized by substandard vehicle and driving conditions suggests a major overlooked traffic safety factor particularly affecting young drivers.     

The impact of state level behavioral regulations on traffic fatality rates

Introduction

A state by year panel is analyzed to simultaneously explore the statistical correlation between state level traffic fatality rates and state level behavioral regulations regarding teen licensing, seat belt use, and driving under the influence (DUI) in a model that also controls for other correlates.

Method

By including measures of all three of these policies, the estimated policy effects should not be overstated due to underspecification bias. The panel includes the 48 contiguous U.S. states for the time period from 1999 through 2003. State fatality rates are measured as fatalities per million miles traveled. Measures of state policies regarding traffic safety related behavior are based on information gathered by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Estimates are calculated via a time fixed effects model that uses the double-log form to allow for interaction effects between the independent variables.

Results

Least squares estimates indicate that, on average, more restrictive graduated teen licensing and DUI policies significantly reduce traffic fatality rates, while stricter seat belt enforcement policies have a statistically insignificant negative impact on fatality rates.     

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF FATALITIES AND INJURIES DUE TO FLOODS IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: This paper provides a framework for analyzing flood fatalities and injuries, and it describes the derivation of a generalized flood risk (i.e., flood consequences and their probabilities) function by introducing an integrated index (the number of residential buildings affected by a flood) that represents the major change in the power relation among the flood intensity, regional vulnerability, and resilience. Both the probabilities and the numbers of fatalities and injuries clearly increase significantly after the flood severity (in terms of the number of inundated buildings) passes a branch point. Below the branch point, it is still possible for fatalities and injuries to occur because of the variability in the data and the uncertainty in the predicted fatality values. The empirical models of fatalities and injuries due to floods in Japan suggested the usefulness in predicting fatalities and injuries and evaluating the efficacy of the warning or other emergency response measures.