基于随机森林的南京市PM2.5和O3对减排的响应

自2013年《大气污染防治行动计划》实施后,南京市大气污染有所改善,但仍面临着细颗粒物(PM_2.5)和臭氧(O₃)污染问题.为探究污染物浓度对其前体物减排的响应,获得有效的减排策略,常利用大气化学模式进行多组基于排放扰动的敏感性试验,而这需要消耗大量计算时间和计算资源.应用随机森林算法对2015年大气化学传输模式(GEOS-Chem)模拟结果进行机器学习,高效地预测了南京2019年PM_2.5浓度日均值和日最大8 h臭氧(MDA8 O₃)浓度对不同人为源排放控制情景的响应.随机森林结果表明2019年中国人为排放每减少10%,南京ρ(PM_2.5)季节平均值下降2～4μg·m^-3.当2019年中国人为源减排比例高于20%时,南京ρ(PM_2.5)年均值将低于国家二级限值(35μg·m^-3).若仅对中国地区O₃前体物氮氧化物(NO_x)和挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)同比例减排,反而...     

Climate change and transdisciplinary science: Problematizing the integration imperative

In this article we critically examine the ‘integration imperative’ in transdisciplinary environmental science and build on social constructivist and political theories to suggest alternative approaches of knowledge co-production in transdisciplinary settings. Our argument builds upon a body of literature in social studies of science to cull insights about knowledge co-production, social learning, and the ecology of team science, particularly as it relates to climate change adaptation. Couched in this transdisciplinary literature, we demonstrate, is the assumption that integration necessarily can and should be a regulative ideal. We critique this assumption by examining the ‘messy’ politics of achieving consensus among radically different, and sometimes irreconcilable, ways of knowing. We argue that the integration imperative conceals the friction, antagonism, and power inherent in knowledge co-production, which in turn can exclude innovative and experimental ways of understanding and adapting to climate change. By way of conclusion, the final section explores three alternative models of knowledge co-production – triangulation, the multiple evidence-based approach, and scenario building – and illustrates their application in the context of transdisciplinary research in climate change adaptation in the arctic, focusing on alternative means of cross-boundary engagement with indigenous ways of knowing.     

Temporal variability of visibility and its parameterizations in Ningbo, China

Simultaneous and continuous measurements of visibility, meteorological parameters and air pollutants were carried out at a suburban site in Ningbo from June 1, 2013 to May 31,2015. The characteristics of visibility and their relationships with air pollutants and meteorological factors were investigated using multiple statistical methods. Daily visibility ranged from 0.6 to 34.1 km, with a mean value of 11.8 km. During the 2-year experiment,43.4% of daily visibility was found to be less than 10.0 km and only 9.2% was greater than 20.0 km. Visibility was lower in winter with a frequency of 53.4% in the range of 0.0–5.0 km.Annual visibility had an obvious diurnal variation, with the lowest and highest visibility being 7.5 km at approximately 06:00 local time and 15.6 km at approximately 14:00 local time, respectively. Multiple correspondence analysis(MCA) indicated that the different ranges of visibility were significantly affected by different levels of pollutants and meteorological conditions. Based on the analyses, visibility was found to be an exponential function of PM_(2.5) concentrations within a certain range of relative humidity. Thus, nonlinear models combining multiple linear regressions with exponential regression were subsequently developed using the data collected from June 2014 to May 2015, and the data from June 2013 to May 2014 was used to evaluate the performance of the model. It was demonstrated that the derived models can quantitatively describe the relationships between visibility, air quality and meteorological parameters in Ningbo.     

Seismological aspects of the Japan Sea earthquake of 1983

The Japan Sea earthquake of 1983 took place at the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which is a marginal sea situated west of the island are of Japan and the Japan trench in the Pacific Ocean. Its magnitude of 7.7 is the largest among earthquakes which have been known to occur in the seismic belt along the Japan Sea coast of Northeast Honshu, Japan. Since the seismic activity in the belt is not so high, the earthquake is especially important in the geophysical interpretation of tectonic process in the region. The aftershock distribution and the focal mechanism reveals that the earthquake is a thrust fault on a plane dipping eastwards by about 30°. The waveform analysis shows that the earthquake can be regarded as a double shock to a first approximation. Interestingly, there was a 10-second intermission between the two events. These are preliminary results, and more detailed studies are under development.     

Characteristics of roadside air pollution in Korean metropolitan city (Daegu) over last 5 to 6 years: temporal variations, standard exceedances, and dependence on meteorological conditions

The present study performed a roadside data analysis to provide baseline data for exploring associations between environmental exposure to four gaseous pollutants and health effects on residents living near roadways. The yearly roadside concentrations of CO and SO₂ showed a well-defined decreasing trend, whereas those of NO₂ and O₃ exhibited the reverse trend. In most cases, the diurnal trends of the roadside concentrations were well-defined for all seasons, plus the daytime concentrations were higher than the nighttime concentrations. In contrast to the other target pollutants, the daytime O₃ concentrations observed at the roadside sites were lower than those observed at the residential site, likely due to high-levels of fresh NO from traffic emissions that rapidly react with O₃, thereby reducing the O₃ roadside level. The Sunday roadside concentrations of CO, NO₂, and SO₂ were similar to or somewhat lower than the weekday concentrations. Conversely, for O_3, the Sunday roadside concentrations were similar to or somewhat higher than the weekday concentrations. The higher O₃ concentrations on Sunday may be due to the reduced titration from a decrease in NO_x emissions under VOC-limited conditions (low VOC/NO_x conditions). The monthly averages of O₃ concentrations exhibited the reverse seasonal variation to the other target compounds, with peak O₃ concentrations between April and June, and the second peak between August and October. It is also suggested that for O₃, the 8-h standard is more stringent than the 1-h standard, while for NO₂ and SO₂, the 1-h standard is more stringent than the 24-h standard. The multiple regression equations obtained from the relationship between the concentrations and five meteorological parameters indicated that the number and type of meteorological variables in the equations varied according to the pollutant, monitoring station, or season.     

Decision making for multiple utilization of water resources in New Zealand

The Clutha is the largest river in New Zealand. The last two decades have witnessed major conflicts centered on the utilization of the water resources of the upper Clutha river. These conflicts have by no means been finally resolved. The focus of this article is on institutional arrangements for water resource management on the Clutha, with particular reference to the decision-making processes that have culminated in the building of the high dam. It critically evaluates recent experiences and comments on future prospects for resolving resource use conflicts rationally through planning for multiple utilization in a climate of market led policies of the present government.The study demonstrates the inevitable conflicts that can arise within a public bureaucracy that combines dual responsibilities for policy making and operational functions. Hitherto, central government has been able to manipulate the water resource allocation process to its advantage because of a lack of clear separation between its two roles as a policy maker and developer. The conflicts that have manifested themselves during the last two decades over the Clutha should be seen as part of a wider public debate during the last two decades concerning resource utilization in New Zealand. The Clutha controversy was preceded by comparable concerns over the rising of the level of Lake Manapouri during the 1960s and has been followed by the debate over the think big resource development projects during the 1980s.The election of the fourth Labour government in 1983 has heralded a political and economic policy shift in New Zealand towards minimizing the role of public intervention in resource allocation and major structural reforms in the relative roles of central and regional government in resource management. The significance of these changes pose important implications for the future management of the Clutha.     

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

Female benefit,male risk: Polyandry in the true armyworm Pseudaletia unipuncta

In Lepidoptera polyandry is common and females may increase their lifetime reproductive output through repeated matings if they acquire essential resources from male ejaculates. However, the paternity of males mating with previously-mated females is far from assured unless sperm precedence is absolute. In this study on the polyandrous armyworm, Pseudaletia unipuncta, we used two strains of male (the black-eyed wild type and a red-eyed homozygous, recessive mutant), mated with red-eyed females, to determine (i) whether male investment has any impact on female reproductive output, and (ii) if females do benefit from multiple matings, to what extent males fertilize the eggs to which they contributed. Multiple mating resulted in a significant increase in both the fecundity and longevity of females. However, the degree of sperm precedence (those eggs fertilized by the second male) varied from 0–100%, but was not affected by either male size or age, or by the duration of copulation. In cases where sperm precedence was <50% (x = 12%) females produced significantly more eggs (1384 versus 940) prior to the second mating than females where sperm precedence was >50% (x = 89%), indicating that the quality of the first mating influenced the fertilization success of the female's second mate.     

Fitness benefits of multiple mating versus female mate choice in the cellar spider (Pholcus phalangioides)

Recent studies have demonstrated that mating with multiple males can be beneficial for females and her offspring even if males contribute nothing but sperm. This was mainly established for species in which sperm from several males mix in the reproductive tract of the female, thus allowing sperm competition and/or female sperm choice. However, in species with last male sperm precedence, female re-mating decides against the previous male by strongly limiting his reproductive success. We tested the effect of female re-mating behaviour using the cellar spider Pholcus phalangioides, which shows strong last males sperm precedence and moderate levels of polyandry under natural situations. We predicted that females prevented from remating even though they are receptive would show reduced reproductive success compared to females that accept two copulations and females that reject a second male, since the latter two treatments were allowed to behave according to their decisions. However, if the number of matings per se had an effect on oviposition or on offspring performance, double-mated females should perform better compared to both treatments of once-mated females. We measured female fecundity and fertility over a period of 140 days, comparable to the species' natural reproductive peak season. Two thousand one hundred and fifty-two offspring from 67 first egg sacs were reared under two feeding levels. We registered development time and survival, and measured offspring adult size and mass. We found a positive effect of double mating, as in this treatment, oviposition probability was higher compared to the other treatments. Interestingly, adult female offspring of the DM treatment that were raised under low food level had a higher condition index compared to those from FS and RM, but development time, size and mass at adulthood were not affected by mating treatment. Female choice only seemed to affect hatching latency of the offspring. Overall, the main predictor of female reproductive output and success was female body size.