Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

A Budget Model to Scale Nutrient Biogeochemical Cycles in Two Semienclosed Gulfs

The nutrient dynamics of the Strymonikos and Ierissos Gulfs, two semienclosed coastal water bodies, are studied using a simple steady-state budget model, according to the Land–Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone modeling guidelines. Strymon river plume dynamics prevailed in the area of the Inner and Outer Srymonikos Gulfs, comprising two layers, while the Ierissos Gulf was defined as a one-box system. Seasonal and mean annual model input data for river discharge, precipitation, evaporation, and concentrations of salt, phosphorus, and nitrogen were obtained during four field campaigns. Results from the nitrogen and phosphorus cycling revealed the importance of river discharge in the horizontal and vertical transport of these substances within the system. Furthermore, it occurred that the major biogeochemical transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus takes place in the immediate nearshore zone (Inner Strymonikos Gulf), while the outer system sustains its nutrient dependence on oceanic exchanges. Therefore, under the summer low flow conditions, the river-influenced inner system acts as a net source of nitrogen and phosphorus, while under increased Strymon River discharge, phosphorus is transferred to the biological material (and the sediments), and the system moves to an autotrophic state. The outer system showed an opposite behavior being autotrophic throughout the year and heterotrophic in February. The Ierissos Gulf, a system not directly influenced by significant river discharge, experienced a seasonally independent behavior with net heterotrophic and denitrification processes prevailing. Model scenarios demonstrated that phosphate concentration increases, even under low river flow conditions and stimulates primary production in excess of respiration, resulting in nitrogen fixation prevalence in the Inner Strymonikos Gulf.     

Distribution and abundance of western gray whales during a seismic survey near Sakhalin Island, Russia

Exxon Neftegas Limited, operator of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, is developing oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf off northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia. DalMorNefteGeofizika (DMNG), on behalf of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, conducted a 3-D seismic survey of the Odoptu license area during 17 August–9 September 2001. A portion of the primary known feeding area of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is located adjacent to the seismic block. The data presented here were collected as part of daily monitoring to determine if there was any measurable effect of the seismic survey on the distribution and abundance of western gray whales. Mitigation and monitoring program included aerial surveys conducted between 19 July and 19 November using the methodology outlined by the Southern California High Energy Seismic Survey team (HESS). These surveys provided documentation of the distribution, abundance and bottom feeding activity of western gray whales in relation to seismic survey sounds. From an operations perspective, the aerial surveys provided near real-time data on the location of whales in and outside the feeding area, and documented whether whales were displaced out of an area normally used as feeding habitat. The objectives of this study were to assess (a) temporal changes in the distribution and abundance of gray whales in relation to seismic survey, and (b) the influence of seismic survey, environmental factors, and other variables on the distribution and abundance of gray whales within their preferred feeding area adjacent to Piltun Bay. Multiple regression analysis revealed a limited redistribution of gray whales southward within the Piltun feeding area when the seismic survey was fully operational. A total of five environmental and other variables unrelated to seismic survey (date and proxies of depth, sea state and visibility) and one seismic survey-related variable (seg3d, i.e., received sound energy accumulated over 3 days) had statistically significant effects on the distribution and abundance of gray whales. The distribution of two to four gray whales observed on the surface (i.e., about five to ten whales in total) has likely been affected by the seismic survey. However, the total number of gray whales observed within the Piltun feeding area remained stable during the seismic survey. M. W. Newcomer, Deceased.     

Feeding of western gray whales during a seismic survey near Sakhalin Island, Russia

Exxon Neftegas Limited, as operator of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, is developing oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf off northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia. DalMorNefteGeofizika (DMNG) on behalf of the Sakhalin-1 consortium conducted a 3-D seismic survey of the Odoptu license area during 17 August–9 September 2001. A portion of the primary feeding area of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is located in the vicinity of the seismic survey. This paper presents data to assess whether western gray whale bottom feeding activity, as indicated by visible mud plumes, was affected by seismic operations. The mitigation and monitoring program associated with the seismic survey included aerial surveys during 19 July–19 November 2001. These aerial surveys documented the local and regional distribution, abundance, and bottom feeding activity of western gray whales. Data on gray whale feeding activity before, during and after the seismic survey were collected, with the whales assumed to be feeding on the benthos if mud plumes were observed on the surface. The data were used to assess the influence of seismic survey and other factors (including environmental) on feeding activity of western gray whales. A stepwise multiple regression analysis failed to find a statistically significant effect (α = 0.05) of the seismic survey on frequency of occurrence of mud plumes of western gray whales used as a proxy to evaluate bottom feeding activity in Piltun feeding area. The regression indicated that transect number (a proxy for water depth, related to distance from shore) and swell height (a proxy for sea state) were the only variables that had a significant effect on frequency of whale mud plumes. It is concluded that the 2001 seismic survey had no measurable effect (α = 0.05) on bottom feeding activity of western gray whales off Sakhalin Island. M.W. Newcomer, deceased     

基于多米诺效应的油品储罐区个人风险研究

介绍了多米诺效应的基本原理和多米诺事故发生的概率分析方法。提出在一定条件下进行储罐区风险评价时,多米诺效应对个人风险值的影响不容忽视,并给出了考虑多米诺效应的个人风险计算方法。最后利用开发的个人风险计算软件通过分析计算,给出了某储罐区的个人风险等值线分布图。结果表明,该罐区正北方向相邻的一劳动密集型工厂需搬迁,或采取相应安全保护措施降低风险。该方法考虑了多米诺效应对装置事故发生概率的影响,能提高个人风险计算结果的真实性与准确性。     

Instream and offstream environmental conditions and stream biotic integrity: Importance of scale and site similarities for learning and prediction

Two different methods to predict biotic integrity were tested and compared in the present paper. The first one tries to predict the fish indices of biotic integrity (IBI) at the state or regional scale based on the most similar observations to a specific target site of interest using the simple to implement k-nearest neighbors (or kNN) method. Two different distance functions were considered to find the k-nearest neighbors: the Euclidean and the Mahalanobis. The second method was applied on the same datasets and consisted of a step-wise multiple regression. The two modeling approaches yielded similar results but kNN proved to be more time-efficient and very fast computationally for the given dataset sizes, which allowed applying a leave-one-out cross validation.In an attempt to reveal the importance of scale in the prediction of IBI, regression models were constructed at the state (or regional) scale and at the more refined cluster of sampling sites scale. Clusters of sites were extracted using Kohonen's self-organizing maps (SOM) followed by k-means clustering of the SOM neurons. Cluster-level regression models, constructed after site patterning, performed better in IBI prediction than global regression models constructed without any previous site patterning. The importance of identifying groups of sites with similar environmental characteristics affecting the IBI was revealed. The combined use of site patterning and regression modeling for IBI prediction also helped identifying important variables acting at the local scale which remain latent at the global scale.     

A comparison of two models with Landsat data for estimating above ground grassland biomass in Inner Mongolia,China

Two models, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were developed to estimate typical grassland aboveground dry biomass in Xilingol River Basin, Inner Mongolia, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and topographic variables (elevation, aspect, and slope) were combined with atmospherically corrected reflectance from the Landsat ETM+ reflective bands as the candidate input variables for building both models. Seven variables (NDVI, aspect, and bands 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7) were selected by the ANN model (implemented in Statistica 6.0 neural network module), while six (elevation, NDVI, and bands 1, 3, 5 and 7) were picked to fit the MLR function after a stepwise analysis was executed between the candidate input variables and the above ground dry biomass. Both models achieved reasonable results with RMSEs ranging from 39.88% to 50.08%. The ANN model provided a more accurate estimation (RMSE_r = 39.88% for the training set, and RMSE_r = 42.36% for the testing set) than MLR (RMSE_r = 49.51% for the training, and RMSE_r = 53.20% for the testing). The final above ground dry biomass maps of the research area were produced based on the ANN and MLR models, generating the estimated mean values of 121 and 147 g/m², respectively.     

Surface installations intended for Carbon Capture and Sequestration: Atypical accident scenarios and their identification

With the advent of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technology the extent of CO₂ handling is set to increase dramatically. However, lack of substantial operational experience in such a novel process can lead to significant difficulties in identifying the associated hazards. This field may be characterized by atypical accident scenarios, i.e. scenarios not captured by common HAZard IDentification (HAZID) techniques because of omissions, errors or lack of knowledge. Recent atypical events evidence that consequences may exceed by far those of worst-case reference scenarios. Identification of atypical scenarios related to CCS is a challenge, considering also the public concern that this technology raises. This study focuses on new and emerging technologies of carbon capture and transport. A HAZID analysis was carried out by means of two different approaches (‘top-down’ and ‘DyPASI’). This allowed not only for a double check of results, but also for the comparative assessment of the methodologies and of their applicability. A general overview of the accident scenarios related to these technologies was given. No absolute showstoppers were found. Rather, a number of potential hazards were identified which will require the adoption of safe design principles to eliminate, prevent, control or mitigate them. Some possible safety barriers required for implementation were identified as a starting point in this process.     

Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Replacement of a multiple hearth by a fluid bed incinerator the Greensboro case history

The incinerator at the T.Z. Osborne Plant in Greensboro, North Carolina burns sludge from its own waste water treatment plant and sludge pumped from the nearby North Buffalo plant. The two plants have a combined capacity of 36 million gallons per day of wastewater. Because of the age of and increasing high maintenance on the existing multiple hearth incinerator, and the need to increase treatment capacity, the Osborne plant concluded a study in 1992 evaluating its options for future municipal sewage sludge disposal. Options which were evaluated during the study included; (i) rehabilitation of the existing eight-year old multiple hearth unit; (ii) addition of a new multiple hearth; (iii) addition of a new fluid bed system; (iv) drying, composting, or land application. The chosen option, based on both economic and environmental considerations, was a new fluid bed system with a capacity of 2.55 tons per hour, approximately double that of the existing multiple hearth. Design of the new fluid bed system began in December 1994 and equipment delivery for the incineration system was begun in April 1995. Initial operation occurred in August 1996. Primary and secondary sludge, dewatered to 28% dry solids by centrifuge, is delivered by piston pumps to the twenty-foot freeboard ID incinerator. A shell and tube heat exchanger recuperates heat from the exhaust gas and preheats the combustion air to 1250°F, resulting in minimal auxiliary fuel use. The air pollution control device is a high-energy Tandem Nozzle® scrubber. Greensboro was the initial installation of this scrubber design on a fluid bed incinerator and its characteristics and performance are discussed. Ash is dewatered in an ash thickener/belt press system prior to disposal to landfill. The system includes a state of the art Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) system for computer control of the operation. The unit was commissioned in August 1996 and has been in continuous operation since that time except for a one week inspection and maintenance shutdown in February 1999. The plant operates 24 h/day, 7 days per week. The initial performance test showed the system to readily meet federal and state air emission standards. Particulate released was 0.002 grains per dry standard cubic foot, carbon monoxide was 22.5 parts per million volumetric (ppmv) and opacity was 0.4%. These results show a significant emission reduction with the fluid bed when compared to the multiple hearth. Annual tests conducted since then and continuous emission monitoring have shown the unit to be in consistent compliance. Since the fluid bed system became operational, the old multiple hearth system has been maintained on standby as a backup, but its use has not been required. Operational experience is discussed, the most interesting of which is the relatively trouble-free operation. The minor problems which occurred and their solutions are detailed. Also included is a comparison of operation and maintenance experience of the fluid bed and the multiple hearth. Current sludge disposal actual cost data are also provided including the average cost per ton of dry solids treated. The almost three years of operational experience to date has shown that the decision to install a new fluid bed system was the correct one on both an environmental and economic basis. It has provided benefits to all interested parties — the wastewater treatment plant, the regulators, the taxpayers, and the surrounding community.