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211.
200起危险化学品公路运输事故的统计分析及对策研究 总被引:46,自引:7,他引:46
本文基于200起典型危险化学品公路运输事故,从事故发生的环节、引发事故的危险化学品类别、泄漏和起火爆炸的特点、事故发生地点、事故发生月份等方面,研究了事故发生的特点及规律,并对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了对策建议. 相似文献
212.
G.L.L. Reniers B.J.M. Ale W. Dullaert B. Foubert 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2006,19(6):604-620
Solid major accident prevention management is characterized by efficient and effective risk assessments. As a means of addressing the efficiency aspect, decision support analysis software is becoming increasingly available. This paper discusses the results of a survey of decision support tools for investigating (internal and external) major hazards in the chemical industry. The most significant features, such as the usability and the functionality of the toolkits are discussed. Toolkit characteristics are analyzed in the light of the different major risk decision process stages. Consequently, valuable supportive information for company decision makers purchasing such software is given. Furthermore, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are formulated for establishing priorities for future risk toolkits developments. 相似文献
213.
214.
中国村镇突发性水污染事件特征及产生根源分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
鉴于中国村镇突发性水污染事件研究的重要性和必要性,本文通过对中国近五年来发生并被报道的64件村镇突发性水污染事件的统计分析,剖析了中国村镇突发性水污染事件发生的地点、诱因、主要污染物、污染类型、危害以及应急措施等状况,以揭示其发生的规律;在此基础上,本文又深入研究了中国村镇突发性水污染事件发生的根源,指出中国村镇污染源复杂多样、村镇工业布局不合理和管理不到位、农业生产用水需求增加以及村镇饮水工程抵御自然灾害能力弱是造成村镇突发性水污染的风险。 相似文献
215.
216.
基于关联维的事故时间序列分形特征分析 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
根据我国"十五"期间事故统计数据,构造了一个事故时间序列;基于相空间重构理论,对事故序列进行了相空间重构,应用G-P算法,对事故时间序列的分形特征进行了研究,计算得出事故时间序列的关联维数。研究结果表明:当嵌入维数达到8以后,该事故动力学系统具有稳定的关联维数4.7,说明至少有5个因子在影响着事故时间序列的动态变化,并且该系统的有效自由度为8。本研究对建立事故时间序列的预测模型有较大的参考价值。 相似文献
217.
对城市重大事故应急的安全学内涵进行了研究,提出了城市重大事故可持续应急的概念.提出对于某个城市特定事故的应急响应过程,应该符合自组织规律,运用自组织理论建立了城市重大事故应急的可持续性模型.研究表明,城市重大事故应急的发展过程,按照其内部应急资源的响应速度,可以分为预防、预备、响应和恢复4个阶段,在理论上丰富了应急的内涵.同时指出了提高城市重大事故应急系统效能的途径. 相似文献
218.
In chemical industrial areas, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) may escalate. Complex cascading multi-hazard scenarios with high uncertainties may be caused. Resilience is an essential property of a system to withstand and recover from disruptive events. The present study focuses on the change of the resilience level due to (possible) interactions between cascading hazards, chemical installations and safety barriers during the dynamic evolution of fire escalations triggered by a natural hazard (certain cascading multi-hazard scenarios). A quantitative resilience assessment method is developed to this end. The state transition of a system facing accidents in the context of resilience is explored. Moreover, the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution are quantified using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, allowing a detailed analysis of the system performance in different time steps. System resilience is measured as a time-dependent function with respect to the change of system performance. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a case study, and the effects of different configurations of safety barriers on improving resilience are discussed. The results are valuable to support disaster prevention within chemical industrial areas. 相似文献
219.
In order to identify and clarify the association between the factors leading to accidents in a petrochemical tank area, this study analyzes investigation reports of 212 petrochemical tank farm accidents and combines this with the “association rule” mining and science related to complex networks. The main risk factors are determined and a risk factor data set is constructed; 75 association rules are extracted from the factor data set based on the Apriori algorithm. Then the obtained association rules are used to construct an accident factors network of the petrochemical storage tank area, and the topology characteristics of the network are further analyzed to reveal the importance of factors. Factors with large node degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficients are obtained, such as “violation of operating regulations”, “high concentration of flammable gas in the air”, “lack of experience and professional skills”, etc. These factors play an important role in the formation and development of accidents. The results also show that the accident cause network of the petrochemical storage tank area has a small average shortest path length and a large cluster coefficient, indicating a relatively close connection between the accident factors. The contributions of this study is not only extracting the hidden relationships among contributory factors to tank farm accidents using association analysis, but also revealing which factors are more important for the tank farm safety through the complex network. 相似文献
220.
李榕 《中国安全科学学报》2010,20(11)
对我国工伤事故死亡率的历史数据进行分析,介绍ARIMA模型预测法。根据统计学理论,运用ARIMA模型,借助相关软件预测我国工伤事故死亡率,可知未来几年,工伤事故的千人死亡率总体上呈逐年下降的趋势;与移动平均法、指数平滑法预测结果作比较,可知ARIMA模型预测效果最佳;同时,由于影响工伤事故的因素很多,与长期预测相比,ARIMA模型更适合于对工伤事故死亡率作短期预测。 相似文献