危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究

统计分析了2008年1月～2010年5月我国发生的485起危险化学品公路运输事故。从事故发生的原因、事故涉及的化学品、事故造成的危害、事故发生的月份分布及年份变化等几个方面,分析了近年来危险化学品公路运输事故的新特点及变化规律。经统计分析,道路交通事故是引发危险化学品运输事故的主要原因之一;侧翻是危险化学品车辆最容易发生的道路交通事故;而随着我国高速公路的迅猛发展,追尾造成的危险化学品运输事故数量呈上升趋势;危险化学品公路运输过程中易燃液体事故起数最多,爆炸品和毒性物质事故造成的人员伤亡最严重;春节前后取代夏季,成为近两年危险化学品运输事故高发期。针对这些特点,对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了建议。     

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: a meta-analysis

Introduction

Through a meta-analysis, this study investigated the relation of errors and violations from the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to accident involvement.

Method

We identified 174 studies using the DBQ, and a correlation of self-reported accidents with errors could be established in 32 samples and with violations in 42 samples.

Results

The results showed that violations predicted accidents with an overall correlation of .13 when based on zero-order effects reported in tabular form, and with an overall correlation of .07 for effects reported in multivariate analysis, in tables reporting only significant effects, or in the text of a study. Errors predicted accidents with overall correlations of .10 and .06, respectively. The meta-analysis also showed that errors and violations correlated negatively with age and positively with exposure, and that males reported fewer errors and more violations than females. Supplementary analyses were conducted focusing on the moderating role of age, and on predicting accidents prospectively and retrospectively. Potential sources of bias are discussed, such as publication bias, measurement error, and consistency motif.

Impact on Industry

The DBQ is a prominent measurement scale to examine drivers’ self-reported aberrant behaviors. The present study provides information about the validity of the DBQ and therefore has strong relevance for researchers and road safety practitioners who seek to obtain insight into driving behaviors of a population of interest.     

区域综合公共安全管理模式及中国综合公共安全管理对策

中国政府将公共安全事件分为4大类,即自然灾害、事故灾难、公众卫生和社会安全。中国的公共安全管理体制包括在中央一级成立国务院应急管理办公室,以及针对上述4类公共安全问题相应组建的以管理自然灾害为主的国家减灾委员会;以管理事故灾难为主的国家安全生产委员会;以管理公共卫生为主的中国爱卫会和以管理社会治安为主的中央综合治理委员会。在地方政府一级,一般与中央有关公共安全管理体制的机构相对应,也相应组建了地方政府的应急管理办公室和上述4类的公共安全管理的委员会。此外,国家出台了各类公共安全管理的应急预案,并针对一些主要的公共安全因素,相继制定了一系列法律、规定和决定。由此可以认为,中国公共安全的管理体制是“以中央为主,中央与地方政府相互配合”。中国公共安全管理机制是中央与地方政府的相关部门,在灾前、灾中与灾后分别承担相应的责任,至今还没有一个政府部门就某一种公共安全因素承担全部的备灾、应急与恢复和重建任务。国家的公共安全管理战略一直是以“预防为主,防抗救相结合”,2003年SARS事件后,各级政府重视公共安全管理工作中应急管理体系的建设。文章提出了区域综合公共安全管理模式,即灾区政府、企业、社区在灾前备灾、灾中应急、灾后恢复与重建的减灾全过程中,形成一个有机的整体。在此模式的指导下,针对中国公共安全管理体制与机制中存在的问题,提出了进一步改进中国各级政府综合公共安全管理的对策：一是加大公共安全信息的及时公开力度,建立国家和地方公共安全信息共享体系;二是建立公共安全管理的纵向、横向与综合协调机制,全面提高各级政府的综合公共安全管理能力;三是从源头上降低公共安全事件的发生频率,建立发展规划的“风险”评价制度;四是鼓励非政府组织在综合公共安全管理中发挥作用,建立社区综合公共安全管理体系;五是大力提高减灾资源的利用效率与效益,建设区域综合风险防范关键技术示范基地。     

灰色预测在平朔煤炭工业公司安全生产中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,建立了平朔煤炭工业公司事故伤亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,并采用残差修正方法,提高了预测精度.对于该矿山有效地控制安全事故的发生,减少其造成的经济损失起到了重要的作用.     

煤矿安全从业人员心理测试指标体系研究

为了寻求有效解决煤矿安全人为事故屡禁不止问题的有效办法,探讨了煤矿作业对人提出的安全心理素质要求,对煤矿从业人员的心理因素与安全生产关系进行了工作分析与职务分析,建立了以能力与非能力因素为基本内容的心理测试指标体系,并对这一体系的科学性进行了验证.应用实践表明,该体系为从根本上解决煤矿安全问题提供了新的途径.     

重特大事故频发凸显生产安全的系统脆弱性——2013年几起特大事故反思

为深入探讨我国重特大事故频发本质原因,在对2013年四起特大生产安全事故调查研究基础上,分析了在事故发生和演变过程中所涌现出的系统脆弱性。对工程技术、管理系统和人员素质方面所出现的脆弱性做了评估和比较分析。认为,系统脆弱性涌现是事故灾难最本质原因,普遍存在的系统脆弱性是一种结构性缺陷。提出应采用现代风险管理方法,对具有潜在性的脆弱性进行识别、评估和控制,提高预防和控制重特大事故强鲁棒性能力。     

永磁同步曳引机冲顶事故分析

依据现行电梯标准中对安全控制的基本要求,从事故现象入手,对一起永磁同步曳引机冲顶事故进行分析,指出了电梯在电气控制回路设计和部件选型中存在的一些常见问题,模拟分析出了可能的事故过程,最后对改进电梯控制系统设计提出了一些建议。希望在电梯控制回路的绝缘保护等问题上能够引起业内人士对电路控制结构安全设计的足够重视。     

Impact of helmet use on traumatic brain injury from road traffic accidents in Cambodia

Objective: Rapid urbanization and motorization without corresponding increases in helmet usage have made traumatic brain injury due to road traffic accidents a major public health crisis in Cambodia. This analysis was conducted to quantify the impact of helmets on severity of injury, neurosurgical indication, and functional outcomes at discharge for motorcycle operators who required hospitalization for a traumatic brain injury following a road traffic accident in Cambodia.

Methods: The medical records of 491 motorcycle operators who presented to a major tertiary care center in Cambodia with traumatic brain injury were retrospectively analyzed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results: The most common injuries at presentation were contusions (47.0%), epidural hematomas (30.1%), subdural hematomas (27.9%), subarachnoid hemorrhages (12.4%), skull fractures (21.4%), and facial fractures (18.5%). Moderate-to-severe loss of consciousness was present in 36.3% of patients. Not wearing a helmet was associated with an odds ratio of 2.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15–4.22) for presenting with moderate to severe loss of consciousness compared to helmeted patients. Craniotomy or craniectomy was indicated for evacuation of hematoma in 20.0% of cases, and nonhelmeted patients had 3.21-fold higher odds of requiring neurosurgical intervention (95% CI, 1.25–8.27). Furthermore, lack of helmet usage was associated with 2.72-fold higher odds of discharge with functional deficits (95% CI, 1.14–6.49). In total, 30.1% of patients were discharged with severe functional deficits.

Conclusions: Helmets demonstrate a protective effect and may be an effective public health intervention to significantly reduce the burden of traumatic brain injury in Cambodia and other developing countries with increasing rates of motorization across the world.     

A study of fatal pedestrian crashes at rural low-volume road intersections in southwest China

Objective: Although intersections correspond to a small proportion of the entire roadway system, they account for a disproportionally high number of fatal pedestrian crashes, especially on rural roads situated in low- and middle-income countries. This article examines pedestrian safety at rural intersections and suggests applicable accident prevention treatments by providing an in-depth analysis of 28 fatal pedestrian crashes from 8 low-volume roads in southwest China.

Methods: The driving reliability and error analysis method (DREAM) is a method to support a systematic classification of accident causation information and to facilitate aggregation of that information into patterns of contributing factors. This is the first time that DREAM was used to analyze pedestrian–vehicle crashes and provide suggestions for road improvements in China.

Results: The key issues adversely affecting pedestrian safety can be organized in 4 distinctive thematic categories, namely, deficient intersection safety infrastructure, lack of pedestrian safety education, inadequate driver training, and insufficient traffic law enforcement. Given that resources for traffic safety investments in rural areas are limited, it is determined that the potential countermeasures should focus on low-cost, easily implementable, and long-lasting measures increasing the visibility and predictability of pedestrian movement and reducing speeding and irresponsible driving among drivers and risk-taking behaviors among pedestrians.

Conclusions: Accident prevention treatments are suggested based on their suitability for rural areas in southwest China. These countermeasures include introducing better access management and traffic calming treatments, providing more opportunities for pedestrian education, and enhancing the quality of driver training and traffic law enforcement.     

Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect in Natech scenarios triggered by lightning

Lightning strike is the natural event more frequency causing Natech accidents involving atmospheric storage tanks. Despite the resulting fires have usually limited severity and only local effects, domino effect may cause the escalation of these primary events, possibly affecting nearby pressurized storages and process equipment, thus resulting in relevant increase in the potential area impacted. A methodology was developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effects caused by Natech accidents triggered by lightning. A comprehensive procedure was obtained, tailoring lightning risk assessment to include probabilistic models for domino escalation based on probit approach and combinatorial analysis. The methodology was applied to a case-study to evidence the shift in risk figures due to domino effect and the credibility of the secondary domino scenarios. The results of the case-study show that an increase up to two orders of magnitude with respect to risk calculated for conventional scenarios is possible when considering lightning-induced Natech primary scenarios and their escalation.