我国区域道路交通安全形势对比与影响因素分析

根据2007年的政府统计数据,将全国划分为4个社会经济发展区域,并对比各区域道路交通的发展状况与安全形势,然后运用SPSS统计软件分析道路交通安全评价参数与社会经济发展水平之间的相关性。发现社会经济发展梯次靠前的区域,其道路交通与安全状况也相对较好;GDP、人口、机动车保有量、机动车驾驶证普及率、道路条件和交通运输规模等因素分别对交通事故的死亡人数、万车死亡率、亿元GDP死亡率和百公里道路死亡率等指标具有显著影响。针对各区域的道路交通安全现状,必须进一步加快交通基础与安全设施建设,建立和完善交通事故紧急救援体系,加强交通安全宣传、教育、管理以及区域间的交流与合作。     

交通运输企业交通事故法律适用问题探讨

交通运输企业的交通运输事故法律适用问题引起了社会广泛争议。如不明确这个问题,对于执法主体、执法权限就不能明确,既会产生安全管理的盲区,有时候也会损害企业的相关权益。文章对《中华人民共和国安全生产法》适用范围条款进行了分析解读,阐明道路交通运输企业的交通运输安全问题既适用《安全生产法》,也适用《道路交通安全法》,二法之间不会有交叉,更不会产生冲突;同时也对道路交通事故的属性进行了分析,并探讨了交通运输企业交通事故的法律适用问题。     

我国“十二五”期间生产安全死亡事故直接经济损失估算

对“十二五”期间发生的、已经公布的生产安全死亡事故报告进行检索,选择事故调查报告要素比较齐全、具有代表性的生产安全死亡事故219起进行直接经济损失统计分析,计算每死亡1个人造成的直接经济损失。建立以事故死亡人数测算全国生产安全死亡事故直接经济损失的计算模型,根据公开的年度生产安全事故死亡人数,估算全国年度生产安全事故直接经济损失。估算结果表明,“十二五”期间我国生产安全死亡事故直接经济损失达到4 651亿元,约占国内生产总值的0.16%,占全国财政收入的0.72%,生产安全死亡事故的直接经济损失巨大。     

交通事故现场物证点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法

为了研究满足交通事故现场记录图的技术性、证据性要求的交通事故现场测绘方 法,针对现有现场图定位方法的不足,重点从交通事故证据审查的视角,提出物证定位 观点,分析其技术构成并构建内容体系;在此基础上,依据技术标准基本要求,运用平面 坐标定位原理,以交通事故现场物证定位思想为基础,研究开发交通事故现场点线系列 直角坐标测绘定位方法及其具体应用技术。研究表明:物证定位是能够将现场元素定位 和现场道路定位协同考虑的一种交通事故现场物证固定技术,以其基本思想与原理可以 开发交通事故现场点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法;该方法有多种变换方法可适用不同 情况的交通事故现场测绘;应用该方法绘制的现场记录图,可以满足现场记录图技术性 及证据性的双重要求。     

Major accident management in the process industry: An expert tool called CESMA for intelligent allocation of prevention investments

A tool (called CESMA) was developed to carry out cost–benefit analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of prevention investments for avoiding major accidents. A wide variety of parameters necessary to calculate both the costs of the considered preventive measures and the benefits related with the avoidance of accidents were identified in the research. The benefits are determined by estimating the difference in (hypothetical) major accident costs without and with the implementation of a preventive measure. As many relevant costs and benefits as possible were included into the tool, based on literature and expert opinion, in order to be able to deliver an all-embracing cost–benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to assist in the investment decision process. Because major accidents are related to extremely low frequencies, the tool takes the uncertainty of the unwanted occurrence of a major accident into account through the usage of a so-called ‘disproportion factor’. Compared with existing software, the CESMA tool is innovative by striving for an as-accurate-as-possible picture of costs and benefits of major accident prevention, and taking the uncertainties accompanying disastrous events into consideration. Furthermore, an illustrative example of CESMA is presented in the paper.     

危险货物运输的安全注意事项

危险物品运输事故频发,造成了人员、财产和环境的重大损失。究其原因,其中绝大部分事故是运输单位或者从业人员没有遵守危险物品运输的安全要求而诱发、扩大事故的。从法律法规、技术、管理的要求及工作经验中总结了危险货物运输的安全注意事项。     

事故的共性原因及其行为科学预防策略

任何事故都是有原因的,事故的原因可分为人和物两个方面,事故的严重度与事故频率间存在三角形分布规律.运用这三条安全科学基本原理和案例分析方法,分析多起不同类型事故.结果表明,事故的共性直接原因是安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯所引起的组织成员个体的不安全行为和物的不安全状态.用行为科学方法和系统化安全管理理论,制订了一个由规范组织成员个体安全行为的安全管理方案、个人行为纠正方法和安全培训组成的通用事故预防路线图,并阐述了路线图实施时所需要的组织行为分析、个人行为纠正和安全培训方法研究的最新进展.     

Environmental federalism and environmental liability

Environmental federalism considers what level of government should optimally regulate pollution. This paper addresses this question for accidental pollution, which government regulates through the ex post liability regimes of either negligence or strict liability. We find that decentralizing the choice between these regimes does not, in general, induce the socially optimal outcome. When firms can pay all damages, all regions may choose negligence and impose an overly strict standard of due care. When firms may be bankrupted by damages, all regions may choose strict liability, which induces too little care. In addition, asymmetric equilibria are possible in which some regions choose negligence, others strict liability. Combining negligence with a Pigovian tax, or strict liability with a bonding requirement can align regional authorities' incentives with those of a central government.     

基于鱼骨图和层次分析法的石油静电事故影响因素分析

针对石油静电事故影响因素的复杂性、多层次性和不确定性的特点,采用鱼骨图分析法,找出了引发石油静电事故的影响因素,确定出6个主因素、25个子因素的石油静电事故评价指标体系。应用层次分析法确定了各个影响因素的重要程度,分析出导致石油静电事故的重要因素。结果表明,6个主因素中,隶属于生产操作工艺和安全生产管理的操作错误、人体静电和接地故障3个主因素权重之和高达0.792,是引发石油静电事故的主导因素;子因素中预防的重点应放在喷溅式装卸油、化纤品与人体摩擦和接地线损坏方面。鱼骨图分析法和层次分析法的联合应用,合理地解决了石油静电事故影响因素分析难题,具有一定的推广应用价值。     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.