对灾害研究中几个问题的思考

对灾害研究中有关的几个问题进行了探讨。认为： 灾害学是最重要的自然社会科学; 人文灾害比自然灾害更具毁灭性; 研究人文灾害中的公路交通事故、核战争问题、人口问题、环境污染问题等具有重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

The ecological effects of trichloroacetic acid in the environment

Trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) is a member of the family of compounds known as chloroacetic acids, which includes mono-, di- and trichloroacetic acid. The significant property these compounds share is that they are all phytotoxic. TCAA once was widely used as a potent herbicide. However, long after TCAA's use as a herbicide was discontinued, its presence is still detected in the environment in various compartments. Methods for quantifying TCAA in aqueous and solid samples are summarized. Concentrations in various environmental compartments are presented, with a discussion of the possible formation of TCAA through natural processes. Concentrations of TCAA found to be toxic to aquatic and terrestrial organisms in laboratory and field studies were compiled and used to estimate risk quotients for soil and surface waters. TCAA levels in most water bodies not directly affected by point sources appear to be well below toxicity levels for the most sensitive aquatic organisms. Given the phytotoxicity of TCAA, aquatic plants and phytoplankton would be the aquatic species to monitor for potential effects. Given the concentrations of TCAA measured in various soils, there appears to be a risk to terrestrial organisms. Soil uptake of TCAA by plants has been shown to be rapid. Also, combined uptake of TCAA from soil and directly from the atmosphere has been shown. Therefore, risk quotients derived from soil exposure may underestimate the risk TCAA poses to plants. Moreover, TCE and TCA have been shown to be taken up by plants and converted to TCAA, thus leading to an additional exposure route. Mono- and di-chloroacetic acids can co-occur with TCAA in the atmosphere and soil and are more phytotoxic than TCAA. The cumulative effects of TCAA and compounds with similar toxic effects found in air and soil must be considered in subsequent terrestrial ecosystem risk assessments.     

胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟

以胶带输送机运输事故树的计算机模拟过程为例 ,介绍了对事故树可靠性进行计算机模拟的原理、算法以及程序运行步骤 ,编制了模拟程序。用笔者提出的理论、方法及模拟程序 ,对平顶山煤业集团一矿胶带输送机运输事故进行了事故树分析与求解 ,同时将模拟程序运行结果与最小割集法求得的理论值进行了对比 ,计算结果误差小 ,所得结论准确可靠 ,为类似事故的模拟分析提供了一种新的方法和途径     

Preliminary indoor radon risk assessment at the Poços de Caldas Plateau,MG-Brazil

This paper aims to present an assessment of the environmental radiological exposure at a Brazilian area of high natural radiation and discusses the indoor radon exposure risk. A survey of inhabitant exposures arising from the inhalation of radon progeny and external gamma exposure was conducted in urban and rural areas of the Po?os de Caldas Plateau, which is recognized worldwide as a high natural radiation region. The results of this survey indicated that highest radiation exposure was restricted to the rural area of Po?os de Caldas. The radiation exposure in urban locations was quite similar to the values observed in normal background areas in some Brazilian counties. By the application of a constant relative risk model, an additional 20% in the lifetime risk of lung cancer mortality due to the exposure to radon progeny was estimated at Po?os de Caldas. It was also estimated that 16% of all lung cancer deaths at Po?os de Caldas county could be attributable to radon exposure.     

Evaluation of a Collaborative Model: A Case Study Analysis of Watershed Planning in theIntermountain West

Collaborative planning processes have become increasingly popular for addressing environmental planning issues, resulting in a number of conceptual models for collaboration. A model proposed by Selin and Chavez suggests that collaboration emerges from a series of antecedents and then proceeds sequentially through problem-setting, direction-setting, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation phases. This paper summarizes an empirical study to evaluate if the Selin and Chavez model encompasses the range of factors important for the establishment and operation of collaboration in watershed planning from the perspective of the planning coordinator. Analysis of three case studies of watershed based planning efforts in the Intermountain West suggests the model realistically describes some of the fundamental collaborative elements in watershed planning. Particularly important factors include the involvement of stakeholders in data collection and analysis and the establishment of measurable objectives. Informal face-to-face dialog and watershed field tours were considered critical for identifying issues and establishing trust among stakeholders. Group organizational structure also seems to play a key role in facilitating collaboration. From this analysis, suggestions for refining the model are proposed.     

A Multimethodological Approach for the Sustainable Management of Perifluvial Wetlands of the Po River (Italy)

/ Marginal aquatic systems (wetlands) of the Po River (Italy) have become the target of a renewed interest because of their value for recreation, natural reserves, and deposits of sand. To preserve these sites, wise management must be the objective of local administrations. In this paper a strategy for the sustainable use of 11 wetlands is presented. It uses simple economic analysis and multiple criteria techniques and provides suggestions to promote sustainability in terms of conservation of natural resources, economic self-sufficiency, and minimization of potential conflicts about the use of the wetlands. In the understanding that sustainability is framed in a long-term perspective, stability analysis is also considered and performed by means of loop analysis, a qualitative technique. Conditions for stability are then discussed about management opportunities.     

Determination of Q1, an unknown organochlorine contaminant, in human milk, Antarctic air, and further environmental samples

Q1, an organochlorine component with the molecular formula C(9)H(3)Cl(7)N(2) and of unknown origin was recently identified in seal blubber samples from the Namibian coast (southwest of Africa) and the Antarctic. In these samples, Q1 was more abundant than PCBs and on the level of DDT residues. Furthermore, Q1 was more abundant in seals from the Antarctic than the Arctic. To prove this assumption, gas chromatography-electron-capture negative ion mass spectrometry (GC/ECNI-MS), which is sensitive and selective for Q1, allowed for screening of traces of Q1 even in samples with particularly high levels of other organochlorine contaminants. Q1 was isolated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) from a skua liver sample. A 1:1 mixture with trans-nonachlor in electron-capture detectors (ECDs) was used to determine the relative response factor with ECNI-MS. The ECNI-MS response of Q1 turned out to be 4.5 times higher than that of trans-nonachlor in an ECD. With GC/ECNI-MS in the selected ion-monitoring mode, four Antarctic and four Arctic air samples were investigated for the presence of Q1. In the Antarctic air samples, Q1 levels ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 fg/m(3). In Arctic air samples, however, Q1 was below the detection limit (<0.06 fg/m(3) or 60 ag/m(3)). We also report on high Q1 levels in selected human milk samples (12-230 microg/kg lipid) and, therefore, suggested that the unknown Q1 is an environmental compound whose origin and distribution should be investigated in detail. Our data confirm that Q1 is a bioaccumulative natural organochlorine product. Detection of a highly chlorinated natural organochlorine compound in air and human milk is novel.     

Charity hazard—A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?

After the flooding in 2002 European governments provided billions of Euros of financial assistance to their citizens. Although there is no doubt that solidarity and some sort of assistance are reasonable, the question arises why these damages were not sufficiently insured. One explanation why individuals reject to obtain insurance cover against natural hazards is that they anticipate governmental and private aid. This problem became to be known as “charity hazard”. The present paper gives an economic analysis of the institutional arrangements on the market for natural disaster insurances focusing on imperfections caused by governmental financial relief. It provides a theoretical explanation why charity hazard is a problem on the market for natural disaster insurances, in the way that it acts as an obstacle for the proper diffusion and therefore the establishment of natural hazard insurances. This paper provides a review of the scientific discussion on charity hazard, provides a theoretical analysis and points out the existing empirical problems regarding this issue.     

Chemical Treatments of Natural Fiber for Use in Natural Fiber-Reinforced Composites: A Review

Studies on the use of natural fibers as replacement to man-made fiber in fiber-reinforced composites have increased and opened up further industrial possibilities. Natural fibers have the advantages of low density, low cost, and biodegradability. However, the main disadvantages of natural fibers in composites are the poor compatibility between fiber and matrix and the relative high moisture sorption. Therefore, chemical treatments are considered in modifying the fiber surface properties. In this paper, the different chemical modifications on natural fibers for use in natural fiber-reinforced composites are reviewed. Chemical treatments including alkali, silane, acetylation, benzoylation, acrylation, maleated coupling agents, isocyanates, permanganate and others are discussed. The chemical treatment of fiber aimed at improving the adhesion between the fiber surface and the polymer matrix may not only modify the fiber surface but also increase fiber strength. Water absorption of composites is reduced and their mechanical properties are improved.     

可靠性分配理论在系统安全目标实现中的应用

在系统安全理论中,确定各基本事件的可靠度以实现所给定的系统安全目标值问题一直没有得到很好解决。笔者将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,提出了2个层次可靠度分配法:最小割集之间采取可靠度再分配法,对构成最小割集的各个基本事件之间采取等分配法。从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。为便于应用,通过实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,运用该模型可准确、简便地计算出各单元的可靠度,使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化。