官方媒体参与下不同风险感知群体竞争模型及其演化规律

为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制，首先，根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体，并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用；然后，通过扩展Lotka Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型；在此基础上，通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律；最后，运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景，官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。     

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government‐sponsored payments‐for‐ecosystem‐services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long‐term empirical data set, a satellite‐based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive‐based strategy as a complement to command‐and‐control, community‐ and norm‐based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict.     

The effects of adaptation measures on hurricane induced property losses: Which FEMA investments have the highest returns?

This paper evaluates the relative effectiveness of FEMA expenditures on hurricane induced property losses. We find that spending on FEMA ex-ante mitigation and planning projects leads to greater reductions in property losses than spending on ex-post adaptation programs – specifically, a one percent increase in annual spending on ex-ante risk reduction and warning projects reduces damages by 0.21 percent while a one percent increase in ex-post recovery and clean-up spending reduces damages by 0.12. Although both types of program spending are effective, we find the marginal return from spending on programs that target long-term mitigation and risk management to be almost twice that of spending on ex-post recovery programs. With the predicted increases in the frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes in the future, our findings suggest there are important potential gains that could be realized from the further diversification of FEMA spending across project categories.     

黄河宁蒙河段突发性水污染事件中应急监测探讨

介绍了黄河宁蒙河段近几年突发性水污染事件应急监测基本情况,总结了应急监测的特点、作用,对突发性水污染事件中应急监测中存在的问题进行了重点分析,提出了解决的对策。     

萨拉乌苏动物组合对Heinrich事件的反映

萨拉乌苏动物组合包括下部的萨拉乌苏动物群和上部城川动物群,前者含有水牛和古菱齿象等化石,属于晚更新世中期,环境较为温凉湿润;后者以野驴和披毛犀为主,属于晚更新世晚期,代表较干冷的气候环境。综合两者的动物组合、测年结果及其生态特点,显示前者应该是末次冰期中期的温凉湿润环境,而后者则应为末次冰盛期的前夜,应该是另一次Heinrich事件H2的动物组合。     

天然藻类吸附重金属的研究

传统的重金属废水处理技术存在耗能高、运行成本高及存在二次污染的问题等诸多劣势;而天然海藻由于其来源广、产量大,在处理重金属废水方面存在较多的优点。介绍了藻类处理重金属离子的研究背景、现状,阐述了藻类处理重金属的优点、机理,重点介绍了海藻处理废水过程中的各种影响因素,并对海藻处理废水的应用前景进行了展望。     

化工园区突发事件应急管理信息系统研究

近年来化工园区突发事件的发生,不仅造成人员和财产的巨大损失,而且造成化工园区周边环境的严重污染,给园区管理者以及各级政府部门带来了巨大的压力和挑战。为了降低和预防化工园区突发事件带来的破坏,本文在利用ArcIMS和专家系统的原理及体系结构的基础上,构建了一种基于ArcIMS平台开发的化工园区突发事件应急管理系统,并对该系统的开发目标、开发环境以及主要功能组成进行了详细的设计与配置,以为化工园区安全规划、应急管理和事故救援工作提供有效的辅助手段。     

Fenton试剂氧化法在工业废水处理中的应用研究

Fenton试剂的氧化能力强,反应过程短,降解效果好,本文中介绍了Fenton试剂的特点,并且通过实验得出几种无机离子对Fenton试剂氧化处理工业废水的影响。     

2013年京津冀重污染特征及其气象条件分析

2013年中国东部地区多次发生持续的重霾污染事件.为探究其气象条件与重污染事件的关系,本文使用欧洲中心2013年东亚地区的逐日气象数据和北京、天津、石家庄的逐时PM_2.5浓度数据以及2013年MICAPS观测数据,分析了重污染事件对应的天气形势,并使用NAQMPS针对2013年1月的重污染事件进行情景模拟.研究结果表明：1北京、天津和石家庄地区PM_2.5浓度,夏秋季节日变化不显著,秋冬季节白天低夜间高;3地PM_2.5浓度均表现为12-1月浓度最高,7月最低;.2500 hPa平直西风气流,850 hPa弱暖平流,地面处于弱高压后部或高压底部高低空配置下的天气系统,对应着重污染事件的高发期;3源强不变的情况下,京津冀地区由弱高压前部控制转为弱高压控制时,地面温度升高0~5℃,相对湿度增加30%~50%,风速下降2~3 m·s^-1,PM_2.5浓度变化可达300 μg·m^-3.     

环境风作用下弧形立面机场航站楼自然排烟效果的数值模拟研究

机场航站楼公共区域多采用自然排烟方式,而环境风和排烟窗控制模式会影响排烟效果,尤其在弧形立面航站楼中影响效果显著。以某弧形立面航站楼为研究对象,选取候机指廊弧形区域的自然排烟窗分3段控制启闭,进而确定6种控制模式,采用 FDS火灾动力学模拟软件研究了不同模式下的排烟效果,获得了环境风和发烟量对危险到达时间的影响规律, 提出了排烟窗控制模式流程。结果表明:对于弧形立面航站楼而言,排烟窗分段控制模式下的排烟效果优于不分段控制模式,可以有效降低环境风对自然排烟的影响。当环境风速超过10 m/s时,须关闭迎风向排烟窗,避免烟气倒灌。在法向环境风作用的不利条件下,当发烟量在0. 05~0. 20之间时,危险到达时间的最大值tmax与发烟量x满足一次函数关系式:tmax=-3018x+1030.5。