Early Development of Systems Analysis in Natural Resources Management from Man and Nature to the Miami Conservancy District

Contemporary approaches to natural resources and environmental decision-making typically draw on a “systems” perspective to assess and improve management strategies. This paper describes the early genesis of the systems analysis approach. It concentrates on a period between the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. During the early part of this period, George Marsh's Man and Nature and related works laid out an approach to problem-solving that recognized the relationship among physically disperse elements in the environment, the need to balance benefits against costs, the potential for using quantitative modeling to understand management options, and the importance of integrating human and natural components into solutions. In the early 20th century, the Miami Conservancy District project brought this approach to fruition with its use of complex simulation and optimization modeling, detailed cost–benefit analysis, and its linking of economics, engineering, science, and law into a far-reaching solution to a complex water resources problem. The objective of this paper is to describe the early development and application of this conceptual approach to problem-solving. An examination of the origins of natural resources systems analysis can broaden one's perspective of the contemporary field to understand its roots as a philosophy for environmental problem-solving.     

自然灾害综合评价与分区——以川南地区为例

自然灾害综合性评价与分区是防、减、治灾的基础。本文提出的自然灾害综合评价模型,考虑了各种自然灾害的共同作用和受灾区域的社会经济水平,用自然灾害综合指数来表示区域自然灾害的危险程度,并据此作综合分区。     

论广东的减灾战略和策略

本文全面地分析了广东自然灾害特征和问题,综合地提出了减灾的战略和策略,供政府有关部门决策时参考。     

灾害损失组合年景研究

根据陕西解放以来的灾害损失资料，将各种灾害造成的成灾面积、人口死亡、房屋倒塌和水、旱、风雹、病虫害、霜冻以及其它灾害造成的农田成灾面积分成４和５个档次，用人工神经网络方法进行聚类，可分成５个不同的灾害损失组合年，其代表了不同损失特点，有助于对各年定量评价灾害年景。分析这些不同损失组合类型的降水特征，可通过对降水的预报来预测可能出现的灾害组合，从而为重点防御某种或某几种灾害损失指明方向。     

自然中心主义环境伦理思想产生的缘由探究

自然中心主义环境伦理思想作为目前最为热门的学科之一，自然同其它学科一样，有它产生的思想根源、现实缘由和直接的动因。工业社会的精神失落和蓬勃兴起的绿色运动是其思想诱因与直接动因，而它形成的现实缘由则主要是全球面临的生态困境以及对人与自然关系的重新认识。     

Casualty treatment after earthquake disasters: development of a regional simulation model

This paper presents a new approach to the casualty treatment problem following a large-scale disaster, based on a mathematical model of how a regional health-care system responds to an earthquake event. The numbers and locations of casualties rescued alive, the scale of pre-hospital care, the post-earthquake hospital capacity, and the transport system are inputs to the model. The model simulates the movement of casualties from the stricken areas to hospitals. It predicts the number of casualties that die as well as other statistics about the health-care system response, such as waiting time before treatment. The model can be run with varying input assumptions to simulate alternative disaster response strategies. Preliminary runs demonstrate the potential of the model as a tool for planning and training.     

高速公路雨水径流重金属污染特性研究

对南京机场高速公路路面径流中Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn这4种重金属进行了现场取样检测,重点探讨了重金属污染的出流规律、事件平均浓度(EMC),并分析了降雨特征对径流重金属污染的影响.结果表明,不同类型降雨事件重金属污染出流规律不同：降雨历时短、降雨量小、降雨强度小的降雨事件重金属浓度在一定范围内波动,在整个径流过程中始终维持在较高水平;降雨历时长、降雨量大、前期强度大的降雨事件初期污染物浓度高、污染重,初期效应显著;降雨历时短、降雨量较大具有双峰雨型的降雨事件中重金属出流存在“二次冲刷"现象.计算结果表明,Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn的EMC中值浓度分别为1.43 μg·L^-1、 0.092 mg·L^-1、 38.6 μg·L^-1和0.51 mg·L^-1.Pb总体污染程度较严重,Cd、Cu和Zn与国内同类研究相比污染程度较为接近.重金属浓度与降雨特征相关性分析表明,降雨量对Cu的溶解出流影响较大,前期晴天数对Zn在路面的积累影响较大.     

活动板房火灾事故的事故树分析

本文运用安全系统工程方法,对彩钢板活动房火灾事故进行了事故树分析,找出了引起火灾事故发生的各个因素,并提出了预防该类事故发生的相应措施。     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

Greenhouse gas emissions and natural resources use by the world economy: Ecological input-output modeling

For the world economy as a biophysical network associated with financial links, an ecological endowment inventory and corresponding ecological input-output modeling are presented to investigate the greenhouse gas emissions and natural resources use in 2000. A forty-sector global economic input-output table is constructed through an integration and extension of existing statistics which covers thirty-four countries accounting for about 80% of the world economy. Global inventories for ecological endowments of six categories, i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, energy sources, water resources, exergy resources, solar emergy resources, and cosmic emergy resources, are accounted in detail. As a result of the modeling, embodied intensities of different ecological endowments are obtained for all forty sectors, based on which the sectoral embodiments for consumptive and productive uses are presented separately. Results of this study provide a sound scientific database for policy making on global climate change mitigation as well as on global resources management.