基于FLACS的LNG船舶泄漏爆炸过程数值模拟研究*

为研究大尺寸、全场景下LNG船舶卸货作业过程中的泄漏爆炸风险,构建某LNG接收站及其周边20.5 km2的区域场景模型,采用FLACS软件数值模拟LNG泄漏扩散、气云爆炸的演化过程。结果表明:LNG从卸料臂处以满输速率持续泄漏5 min,最大液池面积17 047 m2,最大汽化速率350 kg/m3,遇点火源发生气云爆炸,爆炸持续时间12 s,产生最高爆炸火球340 m和最大爆炸超压0.25 MPa,形成半径380 m轻伤区、150 m重伤区和60 m死亡区。     

基于电磁辐射峰谷比值法的煤与瓦斯突出预警

为了提高电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险的准确性,减少误报现象,在分析大量电磁辐射现场数据基础上,基于电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险原理,提出了电磁辐射峰谷比值法,利用正态分布统计特征计算每个班次的电磁辐射瞬时强度峰值均值和谷值均值,并将其比值作为煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预警值。最后,将该方法应用于义忠煤矿11112风巷掘进工作面,研究结果表明:与临界值系数和动态变化趋势系数法相比,峰谷比值法误报较低,预警准确性高,能够很大程度上减少误报对生产的影响。     

上、下悬窗开启角度对排烟效果影响的研究

自然排烟窗有多种开启方式,开启方式的不同影响烟气的流动,进而影响排烟效率。通过数值模拟方法,研究了自然排烟窗的开启方式对排烟效果的影响。主要研究了上悬窗和下悬窗在排烟上的表现。通过对上悬窗开口角度的研究,发现了上悬窗主要排烟区域为两侧,且排烟效率跟开启角度正弦值有关,并在此基础上提出了一种提高建筑中上悬窗排烟效率的方法。而下悬窗的模拟结果则表明,开启大于23°时,排烟效果基本不受影响。     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

A taxonomy of performance influencing factors for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks

This paper introduces the process for, and the result of, the selection of performance influencing factors (PIFs) for the use in human reliability analysis (HRA) of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants. The approach taken in this study largely consists of three steps. First, a full-set PIF system is constructed from the collection and review of existing PIF taxonomies. Secondly, PIF candidates are selected from the full-set PIF system, considering the major characteristics of emergency situations and the basic criteria of PIF for use in HRA. Finally, a set of PIFs is established by structuring representative PIFs and their detailed subitems from the candidates. As a result, a set of PIFs comprised of the 11 representative PIFs and 39 subitems was developed.     

油页岩含氧干馏工艺流程爆炸极限分析

根据干馏工艺流程配入适量氧气,可以降低载热气体需要预热的温度,以实现低能耗、易于工业生产的特点,设计了一套新型的有氧干馏工艺流程。有氧干馏工艺因其过程中存在可燃性混合物,有发生爆炸事故的可能性,通过实验对所收集的不同温度下的干馏气体的成分与含量进行了分析,结合爆炸极限理论,对该有氧干馏工艺流程的不同温度、不同惰性气体含量条件下可燃气体爆炸极限进行了分析计算。结果表明,可燃气体的浓度在整个反应升温过程中始终没有进入爆炸危险区域,说明该实验装置不具备爆炸危险性;对干馏工艺流程中氧气的输入量的控制,可以防止该工艺流程的火灾爆炸的发生。     

基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

油库泵站可燃气体智能型安全检测系统

根据目前油库泵站内存在可燃气体经常泄漏的实际情况,提出并应用计算机信息处理系统解决可燃气体泄漏监控问题。     

北京市天然气公交车的发展现状及前景

随着石油资源短缺、城市空气污染问题的日益严重,天然气汽车作为一种实用的低排放汽车逐渐得到了重视和应用。本文首先通过汽车与能源、汽车与环境两个方面,分析说明了北京市发展天然气汽车的重要性;然后简要介绍了北京市天然气公交车的发展现状、未来几年的发展规划,最后指出了实现发展规划的条件和政策。