整合消费与增加值视角的中国行业碳排放变动分解研究

在研究影响我国CO 2排放因素领域,基于投入产出技术的分解模型已成为主要的分析工具,现有研究多分别基于消费视角或收益视角展开分析。为全面评估各行业收益与消费对其上游、下游行业碳排放的综合影响,整合基于收益与基于消费两个视角,运用2012年与2015年我国投入产出表,构建两层嵌套式结构分解分析模型(SDA),比较分析消费规模效应、收益规模效应、行业流入、流出增加值变动效应、增加值结构变动效应等14个影响各行业碳排放变动的关键因素,并借助对消费者原则碳排放估算公式的重构,更准确地实现从增加值视角对各行业消费者原则碳排放变动的关键影响因素分析。研究发现:①研究期内,我国在总产出增长29.14%的同时碳排放量上升1.46%,各行业碳排放强度下降是主要的减排因素,其中建筑业减排贡献最大。②增排效应方面,影响从大到小依次为消费规模、收益规模、完全投入结构与完全消费结构四项效应,且前两个规模效应的影响是后两个结构效应的2倍以上,尤其建筑业消费规模效应、煤炭采选产品业收益规模效应增排较大。③消费规模扩大导致增排的原因并非行业本身生产规模扩大,而主要在于建筑业、服务业等行业规模扩张时吸收其他行业流入的增加值量增多。④收益规模扩大导致的增排效应方面,细分来说从大到小依次为劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余四项效应,且行业差异显著,如煤炭采选产品业的劳动者报酬效应,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品业的生产税净额效应以及电力、热力生产和供应业的营业盈余效应增排贡献较大,而煤炭采选产品业的营业盈余效应、批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业的生产税净额效应则减排贡献较大。     

Can we gain precision by sampling with probabilities proportional to size in surveying recent landscape changes in the Netherlands?

Seventy-two squares of 100 ha were selected by stratified random sampling with probabilities proportional to size (pps) to survey landscape changes in the period 1996–2003. The area of the plots times the urbanization pressure was used as a size measure. The central question of this study is whether the sampling with probabilities proportional to size leads to gain in precision compared to equal probability sampling. On average 1.03 isolated buildings per 100 ha have been built, while 0.90 buildings per 100 ha have been removed, leading to a net change of 0.13 building per 100 ha. The area with unspoiled natural relief has been reduced by 2.3 ha per 100 ha, and the length of linear relicts by 137 m per 100 ha. On average 74 m of linear green elements have been planted per 100 ha, while 106 m have been removed, leading to a net change of −31 m per 100 ha. For the state variables ‘unspoiled natural relief', ‘ linear relicts', ‘removed linear green elements', and ‘new – removed linear green elements' there is a gain in precision due to the pps-sampling. For the remaining state variables there is no gain or even a loss of precision (`new buildings', ‘removed buildings', ‘new – removed buildings', ‘new linear green elements'). Therefore, if many state variables must be monitored or when interest is not only in the change but also in the current totals, we recommend to keep things simple, and to select plots with equal probability.     

Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The Yellow River is the second longest river in China and the cradle of the Chinese civilization. The source region of the Yellow River is the most important water holding area for the Yellow River, about 49.2% of the whole runoff comes from this region. However, for the special location, it is a region with most fragile eco-environment in China as well. Eco-environmental degradation in the source region of the Yellow River has been a very serious ecological and socially economic problem. According to census data, historical documents and climatic information, during the last half century, especially the last 30 years, great changes have taken place in the eco-environment of this region. Such changes are mainly manifested in the temporal-spatial changes of water environment, deglaciation, permafrost reduction, vegetation degeneracy and desertification extent, which led to land capacity decreasing and river disconnecting. At present, desertification of the region is showing an accelerating tendency. This paper analyzes the present status of eco-environment degradation in this region supported by GIS and RS, as well as field investigation and indoor analysis, based on knowledge, multi-source data is gathered and the classification is worked out, deals with their natural and anthropogenic causes, and points out that in the last half century the desertification and environmental degradation of this region are mainly attributed to human activities under the background of regional climate changes. To halt further degradation of the environment of this region, great efforts should be made to use land resources rationally, develop advantages animal agriculture and protect the natural grassland.     

Nutrient pathways and their susceptibility to past and future change in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean

Climate change is altering nutrient cycling within the Arctic Ocean, having knock-on effects to Arctic ecosystems. Primary production in the Arctic is principally nitrogen-limited, particularly in the western Pacific-dominated regions where denitrification exacerbates nitrogen loss. The nutrient status of the eastern Eurasian Arctic remains under debate. In the Barents Sea, primary production has increased by 88% since 1998. To support this rapid increase in productivity, either the standing stock of nutrients has been depleted, or the external nutrient supply has increased. Atlantic water inflow, enhanced mixing, benthic nitrogen cycling, and land–ocean interaction have the potential to alter the nutrient supply through addition, dilution or removal. Here we use new datasets from the Changing Arctic Ocean program alongside historical datasets to assess how nitrate and phosphate concentrations may be changing in response to these processes. We highlight how nutrient dynamics may continue to change, why this is important for regional and international policy-making and suggest relevant research priorities for the future.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01673-0.     

环境对冲压发动机烟火点火器性能影响研究

为促进某型冲压发动机烟火点火器生产工艺的定型,在海南进行了高温、高湿热带海洋气候自然环境对点火器长期贮存性能影响的研究。点火器采取无包装的暴露试验和密封包装贮存试验2种方法,分别在户外暴露场、棚库和库房等3种环境条件下进行试验。通过试验得到环境温度变化对密封包装储存的点火器的绝缘电阻值、电阻性能均无明显影响,点火性能良好,玻璃钢、涂层等贮存性能良好,点火器的环境适应性良好等结论。     

土地利用/覆盖变化对长江上游非点源污染影响研究

在国内外相关研究的基础上,利用输出系数模型,结合RS和GIS技术,对长江上游的非点源污染负荷进行了空间模拟和负荷估算.模拟结果表明,在不考虑流域损失的前提下,由于土地利用造成的非点源污染负荷TN总量从20世纪70年代的123万t下降至2000年的116万t,基本呈逐年减少的趋势,由土地利用造成的TP的变化趋势与TN基本相同,从70年代的3.7万t下降到2000年的3.5万t左右.就省份、土地利用类型和水系而言,四川省、种植用地和草地以及金沙江水系和嘉陵江水系对长江上游的非点源污染贡献较大.在非点源污染负荷强度上,重庆市和嘉陵江水系单位面积负荷最高,是今后应重点治理的地区.结果表明,该模型可以对长江上游这样的超大尺度空间的非点源污染进行较好的空间模拟.     

松嫩平原西部碱尘气溶胶的时段变化及其气候影响因素分析

利用耦合等离子体发射光谱测试技术(ICP-AES)对松嫩平原西部2003年7月到2004年5月间获得的大气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)样品进行了元素分析,并结合气象资料和TSP质量浓度,初步确定了碱尘活动年际内的演变规律及其主要控制因素.结果表明,TSP质量浓度的高峰时段是早春,其元素总体浓度亦高于其它时段,其中Na元素浓度具有明显的高值,表明碱尘在该时段为TSP的主要成分;晚春时段区域沙尘影响加强,很难监测本地碱尘活动;夏季,碱尘的3种重要元素(Na、Ca、K)含量增加,表明夏季有碱尘活动,与TSP浓度偏高吻合;秋季,碱尘和区域沙尘的活动均减弱.影响碱尘活动的气候因子主要是风力、降水量、温度、日照和湿度,但不同时段其主导作用不同.     

基于过程改变法的铁厂节水调控优化研究

将过程改变法应用到铁厂用水系统改造中,对其用水网络进行调优,实现废水排放量最小化。在厂区用水情况调查基础上,确定用水系统范围及限制杂质;并计算所确定用水系统的最小新鲜水用量和最小废水排放量;最后对其用水网络进行优化设计。改造后的铁厂用水网络新鲜水用量节约57.7%,废水排放量减少75.9%。     

Implications of changing national policies on land use in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Land use in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh had undergone changes over the past several centuries. The landscape, which was mostly covered with forest with interspersed shifting cultivation plots until the beginning of the colonial period, has gradually changed into a landscape with a blend of land uses. Overall, the forest area has gradually declined, while the area under shifting cultivation and sedentary agriculture has expanded. The process of the change was multi-directional. National forestry, land use, land taxation, population migration policies, and development activities, such as construction of a hydroelectric dam and roads, played an important role in this process. Shifting cultivation had inflicted little damage on the forest until the beginning of the colonial period. The pace of deforestation accelerated with the nationalization of forests which abolished tribal people's customary use and management rights to the forest, and allowed large-scale commercial logging both legally and illegally. The pace was further intensified by the policy encouraging population migration to CHT and construction of a reservoir on the Karnafuli River. Efforts were made to replace shifting cultivation with more productive types of sedentary agriculture. However, much change could not take place in the absence of secure land rights, supportive trade policies, and the required support services and facilities, including infrastructure. Locationally suitable land use evolved in areas where transportation facilities were available and farmers were granted land title with the necessary extension services and credit facilities. These findings have important policy implications for the promotion of environmentally and economically sound land use in CHT.     

Policy Windows, Policy Change, and Organizational Learning: Watersheds in the Evolution of Watershed Management

Employing in-depth, elite interviews, this empirical research contributes to understanding the dynamics among policy windows, policy change, and organizational learning. First, although much of the research on agenda setting—how issues attract enough attention that action is taken to address them—has been conducted at the national scale, this work explores the subnational, regional scale. With decentralization, regional-scale environmental decision-making has become increasingly important. Second, this research highlights the role of policy windows and instances of related organizational learning identified by natural resources managers. Having practitioners identify focusing events contrasts with the more typical approach of the researcher identifying a particular focusing event or events to investigate. A focusing event is a sudden, exceptional experience that, because of how it leads to harm or exposes the prospect for great devastation, is perceived as the impetus for policy change.