Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.     

Novice teen driving: GDL and beyond

The Symposium on Novice Teen Driving: GDL and Beyond--Research Foundations for Policy and Practice, held in Tucson, AZ, on February 5-7, 2007, provided a detailed overview of graduated driver licensing (GDL) and other beginning driver issues in the United States. This paper summarizes the information presented at the Symposium and in its background papers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This information and summary should help all interested persons and organizations, including industry, in their efforts to improve GDL and teen driver programs in the United States, which in turn will further reduce traffic crashes and fatalities involving teenage drivers.     

Extending parental mentoring using an event-triggered video intervention in rural teen drivers

Teen drivers are at high risk for car crashes, especially during their first years of licensure. Providing novice teen drivers and their parents with a means of identifying their risky driving maneuvers may help them learn from their mistakes, thereby reducing their crash propensity. During the initial phase of learning, adult or parental supervision often provides such guidance. However, once teens obtain their license, adult supervision is no longer mandated, and teens are left to themselves to continue the learning process. This study is the first of its type to enhance this continued learning process using an event-triggered video device. By pairing this new technology with parental feedback in the form of a weekly video review and graphical report card, we extend parents' ability to teach their teens even after they begin driving independently. Twenty-six 16- to 17-year-old drivers were recruited from a small U.S. Midwestern rural high school. We equipped their vehicles with an event-triggered video device, designed to capture 20-sec clips of the forward and cabin views whenever the vehicle exceeded lateral or forward threshold accelerations. Preliminary findings suggest that combining this emerging technology with parental weekly review of safety-relevant incidents resulted in a significant decrease in events for the more at-risk teen drivers. Implications for how such an intervention could be implemented within GDL are also discussed.     

Practicing for and performance on drivers license tests in relation to gender differences in crash involvement among novice drivers

PROBLEM: Young male novice drivers are overrepresented in injury motor-vehicle crashes compared to females in the same category. This difference in crash involvement is often assumed to include factors such as overestimation, risk acceptance, and sensation seeking, but it can also be related to acquisition of knowledge, skills, insight, and driving experience. Therefore, this study explored possible gender differences among 18-24-year-olds in Sweden regarding practicing as learners, outcome of the driver's tests, and crash involvement during the first year after licensure. METHOD: Data for 2005 from different sources (e.g., questionnaires, license test, and crash statistics) were examined. It was not possible to follow individual subjects through all stages or in all analyses. Nevertheless, the study design did enable scrutinization and discussion of gender differences between younger inexperienced drivers with respect to education and training, license test results, and initial period of licensure. RESULTS: Males and females assimilated tuition in different ways. Females studied more theory, pursued training in a more structured manner, practiced more elements of driving in several different environments, and participated more extensively in driving school instruction. National statistics showed that females did better on the written test but not on the driving test. Males were involved in 1.9 more injury crashes per 1,000 drivers than females during their first year of licensed driving. The proportional distribution of crash types was the same for both sexes during the first period as novice drivers, but the circumstances surrounding the accidents varied (e.g., males were involved in more night crashes). IMPACT ON TRAFFIC SAFETY: More structured training while learning appears to be one of the reasons why females initially do better than males as novice drivers. Therefore, in the future, driver education should focus not only on matters such as the amount of time spent on training and preconditioning, but also on the importance of the organization and content of the learning process.     

The effects of driver factors and sign design features on the comprehensibility of traffic signs

PROBLEM: This paper addresses the effects of driver factors and sign design features on the comprehensibility of traffic signs. METHODS: A survey was designed to capture subjects' personal particulars, ratings on sign features, and comprehension scores, and then administered to 109 Hong Kong full driving license holders. RESULTS: Years with driving license and education level were significant predictors of sign comprehensibility. Contrary to expectation, the driver factors of age group, years of active driving, hours of driving, last time driving, driving frequency, and non-local driving experience had no effect on comprehension performance. Sign familiarity was correlated with comprehension score for licensed drivers, whereas sign concreteness, simplicity, and meaningfulness were not. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results of this study provide useful guidelines for designing more user-friendly traffic signs in the future. It identified particular driver groups who lacked good understanding of traffic signs, and this information may assist the relevant organizations to better allocate traffic training resources, and better target future studies of traffic sign comprehension.     

Does the Maryland graduated driver licensing law affect both 16-year-old drivers and those who share the road with them?

PROBLEM: To assess effects of the 1999 Maryland graduated driver licensing (GDL) law on both 16-year-old drivers and other road users. METHOD: Calculation and comparison of crash involvement rates and non-fatal injury rates pre-GDL (1996-1998) and post-GDL (2001-2003) by type of road user, per population, and per licensed driver, with adjustment for trends among 30-59-year-old drivers. RESULTS: Post-GDL, prevalence of licensure decreased 24% among 16-year-olds, and rates of 16-year-old drivers involved in crashes significantly decreased per 16-year-old population (corrected rate ratio (RRc) 0.82; 95% CI (0.71, 0.96)). A significant decrease also was observed for non-fatal injuries per 16-year-old population among 16-year-old drivers involved in crashes (RRc 0.63; 95% CI (0.41, 0.98)). Similarly, decreases, albeit not statistically significant, were observed among their passengers and other vehicle occupants. Per 16-year-old licensed driver, a slight non-significant increase was observed in crash involvement rates; non-fatal injury rates per 16-year-old licensed driver suggest decreased risk (non-significant) among 16-year-old drivers, their passengers, and other vehicle occupants. SUMMARY: Maryland's GDL delayed licensure and reduced crashes and non-fatal injuries among 16-year-old drivers per population. Trends in injuries among other road users involved in crashes with 16-year-old drivers were suggestive of a benefit from GDL, although observed decreases were not significant. Per licensed driver, findings were not significant, but suggested little change in crash involvement and decreased non-fatal injuries. Because one-third fewer 16-year-olds were licensed post-GDL, these results may suggest a selection effect in licensure. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Because Maryland had nighttime restrictions for new drivers before 1999, this study suggests other components of GDL are beneficial for drivers and possibly for other road users. States with weak GDL laws should strongly consider revising them.     

Crash involvement during the different phases of the New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS)

Introduction

The New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS) is designed to allow novice drivers to gain driving experience under conditions of reduced risk.

Method

To examine the effectiveness of the GDLS, an analysis of how the crash involvement of novice drivers changes as drivers move through the GDLS was undertaken. Crash profiles were created by data matching the New Zealand license and crash databases, covering a time period from 1999-2006.

Results

The crash profiles show that the initial learner period of the GDLS is relatively safe and the time at which novice drivers have the highest rate of crash involvement is during the first few months of solo driving. Analysis using logistic regression also showed an effect of age and gender, with higher crash involvement associated with younger drivers and males. In addition, individuals who gained a full license within 12-18 months of holding a restricted license, due to completion of a time-discount associated educational program, had a higher level of involvement in crashes than individuals who gained a full license after 18 months.

Conclusions

The crash profiles provide an insight into the crash risk associated with different phases of the New Zealand GDLS.

Impact on Industry

Increasing the age at which drivers first begin to solo drive and the removal of the time-discount associated with completion of an educational program should be considered.     

An experimental comparison of conservative versus optimal collision avoidance warning system thresholds

In the distributed signal detection theoretic (DSDT) model, the human operator and the warning mechanism are independent decision makers who work together as a team. The DSDT demonstrates that the optimal warning threshold, in general, differs from the signal detection theoretic (SDT) threshold, which assumes a single decision maker. This prediction was tested in an experiment where drivers received monetary rewards for making safe passing decisions on a driving simulator. The experiment focused on evaluating the quality of the decision making of the drivers, and not on perceptual issues. A collision avoidance system provided a warning when the probability of an inadequate overtaking gap exceeded a threshold. Three thresholds were tested. The control threshold resulted in no detections or false alarms. The DSDT threshold resulted in some misses but no false alarms. The SDT threshold resulted in no misses but frequent false alarms. As predicted, (1) drivers performed the best when the warning system used the DSDT threshold, and (2) use of the SDT threshold improved performance over the control threshold, even though four of the 10 drivers occasionally ignored the warning and made risky passing attempts in the SDT conditions, possibly because of earlier false alarms. These findings support the conclusion that the DSDT model is a useful, quantitative tool that should be used by warning designers.     

Graduated driver licensing in the United States: evaluation results from the early programs

BACKGROUND: Seventeen states enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs that were implemented from 1996 through 1999 and for which evaluations are of interest. METHODS: We received evaluation results reported for six states for which data were available. Summarizing results is difficult in other than the most global terms because of differences in pre-GDL programs, differences in GDL programs, and differences in evaluation methodology. RESULTS: All states identified some crash reduction among teen drivers following GDL implementation. This positive effect was observed across different geographic regions, and with different GDL programs. Simple counts are down-fewer teens are experiencing crashes and becoming injured. After calculating crash rates to adjust for changes over time in populations or licensed drivers, reductions generally were still found. Population-adjusted risks of injury/fatal crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Florida and Michigan were reduced by 11% and 24%, respectively. Population-adjusted risks of any crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Michigan and North Carolina were reduced by 25% and 27%, respectively. Reductions in night (restricted hours) crash risk were impressive in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. A comparison state design was only possible in the Florida evaluation, and results showed greater crash reductions under GDL. Change-point analyses of Michigan's crash data trends over time provided additional support of GDL's effectiveness in reducing crashes. DISCUSSION: Taken as a whole, and including the preliminary findings from California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, these reports demonstrate the early effectiveness of GDL in reducing the crash risk of teen drivers. The impact of these studies and others to come will guide future research, practice, and policy.     

Older women drivers: fatal crashes in good conditions

PROBLEM: By 2030, there will be approximately 70 million older people (65+) in the United States, more than twice their number in 2000. This increase also represents an increased percentage of older licensed drivers. Thus, it is important to understand the special circumstances of how they may be involved in traffic crashes. METHOD: This study used the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), which is a census of all fatal crashes occurring in the United States over the last two decades maintained by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), to study the special characteristics of fatal crashes involving females older than 70 years. RESULTS: The results indicate that senior women are overrepresented in crashes that occur under the "safest" conditions, on roads with low speed limits, in daylight, when traffic is low (not at rush hour), when the weather is good, and when the roads are dry.