Chains of accidents (the domino effect) have been occurring with ever increasing frequency in chemical process industries. This is reflected in several accidents ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’; the world's worst industrial accident of the 1990s — the Vishakhpatnam disaster — also involved the domino effect ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361; and Process Safety Prog 18 (1999b) 135’. Such chains of accidents have a greater propensity to cause damage than stand-alone accidents ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; and J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’.In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the domino effect and its damage potential, use of deterministic models in conjunction with probabilistic analysis is required. Recently we have proposed a systematic methodology called ‘domino effect analysis’ (DEA). A computer-automated tool, DOMIFFECT, has also been developed by us based on DEA ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; Environment Model Software 13 (1998b) 163; and Risk assessment in chemical process industries: advanced techniques. Discovery Publishing House (1998c)’.This paper illustrates the application of DEA and DOMIFFECT to an industrial complex comprising 16 different industries. Out of 12 credible accident scenarios envisaged in three different industries — namely Madras Refineries Limited (MRL), UB Petrochemicals (UBP) and Indian Organic Chemicals Limited (IOCL), eight scenarios are likely to cause the domino effect. A further detailed analysis reveals that accidents in the storage of liquified petroleum gas and propylene and in the reflux drum units of MRL may cause domino effects. Similarly, propylene storage of UBP and monoethylene glycol storage of IOCL are also likely to cause domino effects. The impact of various chains of accidents has been forecast which reveals that in several cases the accidents may be catastrophic, harming the entire industrial complex of 16 industries. The study leads to the identification of ‘hot spots’ — units that pose the greatest risk — in turn forewarning the industries concerned and enabling them to prioritize and augment accident-prevention steps. 相似文献
Objective: European car design regulations and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings have led to reductions in pedestrian injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of improving vehicle front design on mortality and morbidity due to pedestrian injuries in a European country (Germany) and 2 countries (the United States and India) that do not have pedestrian-focused NCAP testing or design regulations.
Methods: We used data from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database and the Global Burden of Disease project to estimate baseline pedestrian deaths and nonfatal injuries in each country in 2013. The effect of improved passenger car star ratings on probability of pedestrian injury was based on recent evaluations of pedestrian crash data from Germany. The effect of improved heavy motor vehicle (HMV) front end design on pedestrian injuries was based on estimates reported by simulation studies. We used burden of disease methods to estimate population health loss by combining the burden of morbidity and mortality in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost.
Results: Extrapolating from evaluations in Germany suggests that improving front end design of cars can potentially reduce the burden of pedestrian injuries due to cars by up to 24% in the United States and 41% in India. In Germany, where cars comply with the United Nations regulation on pedestrian safety, additional improvements would have led to a 1% reduction. Similarly, improved HMV design would reduce DALYs lost by pedestrian victims hit by HMVs by 20% in each country. Overall, improved vehicle design would reduce DALYs lost to road traffic injuries (RTIs) by 0.8% in Germany, 4.1% in the United States, and 6.7% in India.
Conclusions: Recent evaluations show a strong correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian scores and real-life pedestrian injuries, suggesting that improved car front end design in Europe has led to substantial reductions in pedestrian injuries. Although the United States has fewer pedestrian crashes, it would nevertheless benefit substantially by adopting similar regulations and instituting pedestrian NCAP testing. The maximum benefit would be realized in low- and middle-income countries like India that have a high proportion of pedestrian crashes. Though crash avoidance technologies are being developed to protect pedestrians, supplemental protection through design regulations may significantly improve injury countermeasures for vulnerable road users. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the role of working conditions as predictors of sleepiness while driving among truck drivers.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out among truck drivers who transported grains to Paranaguá Port, Paraná, Brazil. The truck drivers were interviewed and completed a self-administered questionnaire to collect data on sociodemographic and behavioral variables, working conditions, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep patterns. Drivers were considered to be sleepy while driving if they reported a medium or high probability of napping while driving at night, during the daytime, or while stopped in traffic. The statistical analysis used logistic regression models progressively adjusted for age, behavioral variables, sleep duration, and other working conditions.Results: In total, 670 male drivers, with a mean age of 41.9 (±11.1) years, were enrolled. The prevalence of sleepiness while driving was 31.5%. After model adjustments, the following working conditions were associated with sleepiness while driving: Distance from the last shipment of more than 1,000?km (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–2.23) and a formal labor contract with a productivity-based salary (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.86–3.78). Consumption of illicit psychoactive substances (OR = 1.99; 95% CI, 1.14–3.47) was also associated with sleepiness while driving.Conclusions: Distance traveled and a formal labor contract with productivity-based earnings were the working conditions associated with sleepiness while driving, regardless of other working or behavioral characteristics, age, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep duration. 相似文献