基于HFACS的中国特别重大煤矿事故研究

特别重大煤矿事故一直被认为是中国最严重的社会问题之一。本论文的研究目标有两个。首先,分析中国特别重大煤矿事故的致因因素;其次,定量考察事故致因因素间的相互作用关系。基于HFACS模型,在层级层面上,94起特别重大煤矿事故的实证表明:"不安全行为"的发生频率最高;在类别层面上,"监管不力"的发生频率最高;在指标层面上,"对违法行为失察或制止不力"的发生频率最高。借助OR技术,计算得出上一层级对下一层级指标的影响关系,并得到了一系列致因因素间的影响路径,这为遏制和预防特别重大煤矿事故提供了"路线图"。     

Examining the asymptote in safety progress: a literature review

Many industries are confronted by plateauing safety performance as measured by the absence of negative events – particularly lower-consequence incidents or injuries. At the same time, these industries are sometimes surprised by large fatal accidents that seem to have no connection with their understanding of the risks they faced; or with how they were measuring safety. This article reviews the safety literature to examine how both these surprises and the asymptote are linked to the very structures and practices organizations have in place to manage safety. The article finds that safety practices associated with compliance, control and quantification could be partly responsible. These can create a sense of invulnerability through safety performance close to zero; organizational resources can get deflected into unproductive or counterproductive initiatives; obsolete practices for keeping human performance within a pre-specified bandwidth are sustained; and accountability relationships can encourage suppression of the ‘bad news’ necessary to learn and improve.     

建筑事故应激生理反应基础实验研究

拟通过事故应激和生理指标测量来定量评估建筑个体的应急素质。通过实验测量个体应激前后生理指标的变化情况,创新提出个体事故应激反应计算公式,定量计算出个体应激反应大小,并探讨其和性别及有无专业知识背景的关系。结果发现,所有4个生理指标实验后与前相比均发生非常显著的变化(P0.01),其中心率、收缩压、舒张压均升高,鼻尖皮温降低。男性的应激反应程度显著小于女性(P0.05),有安全专业知识背景的个体应激反应非常显著地小于没有安全专业知识背景的(P0.01)。研究结果还可以用来对个体的应激反应水平进行区间划分,以进行有针对性的培训和合理的岗位匹配。     

A data-driven allocation tool for in-kind resources distributed by a state health department

Objective: The objective of this study was to leverage a state health department's operational data to allocate in-kind resources (children's car seats) to counties, with the proposition that need-based allocation could ultimately improve public health outcomes.

Methods: This study used a retrospective analysis of administrative data on car seats distributed to counties statewide by the Georgia Department of Public Health and development of a need-based allocation tool (presented as interactive supplemental digital content, adaptable to other types of in-kind public health resources) that relies on current county-level injury and sociodemographic data.

Results: Car seat allocation using public health data and a need-based formula resulted in substantially different recommended allocations to individual counties compared to historic distribution.

Conclusions: Results indicate that making an in-kind public health resource like car seats universally available results in a less equitable distribution of that resource compared to deliberate allocation according to public health need. Public health agencies can use local data to allocate in-kind resources consistent with health objectives; that is, in a manner offering the greatest potential health impact. Future analysis can determine whether the change to a more equitable allocation of resources is also more efficient, resulting in measurably improved public health outcomes.     

Road traffic mortality in the Slovak Republic in 1996–2014

Objective: Road traffic mortality takes an enormous toll in every society. Transport safety interventions play a crucial role in improving the situation. In the period 1996–2014 several road safety measures, including a complex new road traffic law in 2009, were implemented in the Slovak Republic, introducing stricter conditions for road users.

The aim of this study is to describe and analyze the trends in road user mortality in the Slovak Republic in individual age groups by sex during the study period 1996–2014.

Methods: Data on overall mortality in the Slovak Republic for the period 1996–2014 were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. Mortality rates were age-adjusted to the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the statistical significance of change in time trends of calculated standardized mortality rates.

Results: Mortality rates of all types of road users as well as all age groups and both sexes in the Slovak Republic in the period 1996–2014 are decreasing. The male : female ratio decreased from 4:1 in 1996 to 2:1 in 2014. Motor vehicle users (other than motorcyclists) and pedestrians have the highest mortality rates among road user groups. Both of these groups show a significant decline in mortality rates over the study period. Within the age groups, people age 65 years and over have the highest mortality rates, followed by the age groups 25–64 and 15–24 years old.

Joinpoint regression confirmed a steady, significant decline in all mortality rates over the study period. A statistically significant decrease in mortality rates in the last years of the study period was observed in the age group 25–64 and in male motorcycle users.

Assessing the impact of the 2009 road traffic law, a drop was observed in the average standardized mortality rate of all road traffic users from 14.56 per 100,000 person years in the period 1996–2008 to 7.69 per 100,000 person years in the period 2009–2014. A similar drop in the average standardized mortality rate was observed in all individual road user groups.

Conclusions: The implementation of the new traffic regulations may have contributed significantly to the observed decrease in mortality rates of road users in the Slovak Republic. A significant decrease in mortality was observed in all population groups and in all groups of road users. The introduction of a new comprehensive road traffic law may have expedited the decrease of road fatalities, especially in the age group 25–64 years old. This type of evidence-based epidemiology data can be used for improved targeting of future public health measures for road traffic injury prevention.     

The analysis of influence of individual and environmental factors on 2-wheeled users’ injuries

Objective: Powered 2-wheeled motor vehicles (PTWs) are one of the most vulnerable categories of road users. Bearing that fact in mind, we have researched the effects of individual and environmental factors on the severity and type of injuries of PTW users. The aim was to recognize the circumstances that cause these accidents and take some preventive actions that would improve the level of road safety for PTWs.

Methods: In the period from 2001 to 2010, an analysis of 139 road accidents involving PTWs was made by the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering in Belgrade. The effects of both individual (age, gender, etc.) and environmental factors (place of an accident, time of day, etc.) on the cause of accidents and severity and type of injuries of PTWs are reported in this article. Analyses of these effects were conducted using logistic regression, chi-square tests, and Pearson's correlation.

Results: Factors such as categories of road users, pavement conditions, place of accident, age, and time of day have a statistically significant effect on PTW injuries, whereas other factors (gender, road type; that is, straight or curvy) do not. The article also defines the interdependence of the occurrence of particular injuries at certain speeds. The results show that if PTW users died of a head injury, these were usually concurrent with chest injuries, injuries to internal organs, and limb injuries.

Conclusions: It has been shown that there is a high degree of influence of individual factors on the occurrence of accidents involving 2-wheelers (PTWs/bicycles) but with no statistically significant relation. Establishing the existence of such conditionalities enables identifying and defining factors that have an impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents involving bicyclists or PTWs. Such a link between individual factors and the occurrence of accidents makes it possible for system managers to take appropriate actions aimed at certain categories of 2-wheelers in order to reduce casualties in a particular area. The analysis showed that most of the road factors do not have a statistically significant effect on either category of 2-wheeler. Namely, the logistic regression analysis showed that there is a statistically significant effect of the place of accident on the occurrence of accidents involving bicyclists.     

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel

Objective: With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011–2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Methods: An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Results: Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50–79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient.

Conclusions: This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.     

A rising tide raises all boats: Regional promotion of process safety through joint government/industry management

With the development of increasingly complex processes and technologies in chemical and manufacturing industries, Process Safety Management (PSM) has been globally recognized as the primary tool for operating companies to reduce process accidents on their industrial sites and the risks posed to their employees and surrounding communities. Yet, industrial facilities are often interdependent and collocated with others. Recognizing this, regional authorities are also applying PSM principles to reduce the cumulative incidents associated with high density industrial areas and the multiplicative risks posed to broader communities. This paper compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta, Contra Costa County Health Service Hazard Material Programs (CCCHSHMP) in California, and Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario and their PSM systems to provide practical recommendations to improve SCES's system. Four aspects of PSM are considered: regulation and guidance, auditing and inspection, annual performance indicators, and public participation. Based on the results of this comparison, we recommend that SCES develop comprehensive PSM regulations based on CSA Z767-17 PSM including clear instructions for assessing technologies and methodologies for consequence analysis. Both worst-case scenarios and alternative scenarios need to be considered as well as the domino effect of primary accidents. Furthermore, regular audits and inspections will ensure compliance with PSM regulations while helping the design of planning, performing, and following-up strategies to ensure effectiveness. In addition, we suggest the use of lagging and leading performance indicators to evaluate the performance of the PSM program. Finally, we recommend using advisory councils or commissions to increase public participation and ensure the representation of stakeholders' perspectives with the PSM system.     

两起钢丝绳芯输送带断裂事故的分析及对策

通过两起钢绳芯胶带断裂事故的分析,提出了具体和有效的对策措施。     

A 6-year survey of road traffic accidents in Southwest China: Emphasis on traumatic brain injury

Background: The objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date overview of the patterns of injuries, especially traumatic brain injury (TBI) caused by RTAs and to discuss some of the public health consequences. Methods: A scientific team was established to collect road traffic accidents occurring between 2013 and 2018 in Chongqing, Southwest China. For each accident, the environment-, vehicle-, and person- variables were analyzed and determined. The overall injury distribution and TBI patterns of four types of road users (driver, passenger, motorcyclist and pedestrian) were compared. The environmental and time distribution of accidents with TBI were shown by bar and pie chart. The risks of severe brain injury whether motorcyclist wearing helmets or not were compared and the risk factors of severe TBI in pedestrian were determined by odds ratio analysis. Results: This study enrolled 2131 accidents with 2741 persons of all kind of traffic participants, 1149 of them suffered AIS1+ head injury and 1598(58%) died in 7 days. The most common cause of deaths is due to head injury with 714(85%) and 1266(79%) persons died within 2 hours. Among 423 persons suffered both skull fracture and intracranial injury, 102 (24.1%) have an intracranial injury but no skull fractures, while none of the skull fractures without intracranial injury was found. Besides, motorcyclists without a helmet were at higher risks for all the brain injury categories. The risk of pedestrian suffering severe TBI at an impact speed of more than 70 km/h is 100 times higher than that with an impact speed of less than 40 km/h. Conclusion: It is urgently needed to develop a more reliable brain injury evaluation criterion for better protection of the road users. We believe that strengthening the emergency care to head injury at the scene is the most effective way to reduce traffic fatality.