突发性水污染事故应急监测体系的研究

应急监测体系作为突发性水污染事故处理的重要组成部分,对突发性水污染事故应急监测具有指导作用。本文通过对突发性水污染事故应急监测体系建设的研究,将监测体系分为应急监测预案、装备体系、技术体系、能力体系、信息体系五个部分,为我国突发性水污染事故的监测和管理提供了一种思路。     

Short and long term dispersion patterns of radionuclides in the atmosphere around the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The Chernobyl accident and unfortunately the recent accident at the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant are the most serious accidents in the history of the nuclear technology and industry. Both of them have a huge and prolonged impact on environment as well as human health. Therefore, any technological developments and strategies that could diminish the consequences of such unfortunate events are undisputedly the most important issues of research. Numerical simulations of dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere after an accidental release can provide with a reliable prediction of the path of the plume. In this study we present a short (one month) and a long (11 years) term statistical study for the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant to estimate the most probable dispersion directions and plume structures of radionuclides on local scale using a Gaussian dispersion model. We analyzed the differences in plume directions and structures in case of typical weather/circulation pattern and provided a statistical-climatological method for a “first-guess” approximation of the dispersion of toxic substances. The results and the described method can support and used by decision makers in such important cases like the Fukushima accident.     

Investigating incorporation and distribution of radionuclides in trinitite

Most of the surface explosions in nuclear tests have released radioactivity to the environment in the form of bulk glassy materials originating from the melting of sandy soil in the neighbourhood of ground zero. In view of clarifying issues concerning the mechanism of formation and the radiological impact of these materials, we investigated incorporation and volume distribution of radionuclides in a typical fragment of trinitite, the glassy substance generated following the first nuclear test (Trinity Site, New Mexico, 1945). Specific activities were determined by γ-spectrometry for the most significant fission and activation products. In particular, ¹⁵²Eu activity was used to estimate the original point of collection of the sample with respect to ground zero. After embedding in an epoxy resin, the sample was then sliced to perform cross-sectional β- and α-autoradiograph. α-spectrometry was also carried out on a fine powder obtained by surface abrasion. In the β-autoradiography, hot spots were distinguishable in the proximity of the blast side, over a 1000 times less intense background of sand activation products. Also α-contamination (from ^239+240Pu and ²⁴¹Am) was mostly concentrated within the superficial layer, in a fraction of only 20% of the overall volume of the sample, exhibiting a discontinuous, droplet-like distribution. This evidence would partially support a recent hypothesis on trinitite formation according to which most of the glass layer was formed not on the ground but by a rain of material injected into the fireball that melted, fell back, and collected on a bed of already fused sand.     

Tritium concentrations in the atmospheric environment at Rokkasho, Japan before the final testing of the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

This study aimed at obtaining background tritium concentrations in precipitation and air at Rokkasho where the first commercial spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been under construction. Tritium concentration in monthly precipitation during fiscal years 2001-2005 had a seasonal variation pattern which was high in spring and low in summer. The tritium concentration was higher than that observed at Chiba City as a whole. The seasonal peak concentration at Rokkasho was generally higher than that at Chiba City, while the baseline concentrations of both were similar. The reason for the difference may be the effect of air mass from the Asian continent which is considered to have high tritium concentration. Atmospheric tritium was operationally separated into HTO, HT and hydrocarbon (CH₃T) fractions, and the samples collected every 3 d-14 d during fiscal year 2005 were analyzed for these fractions. The HTO concentration as radioactivity in water correlated well with that in the precipitation samples. The HT concentration was the highest among the chemical forms analyzed, followed by the HTO and CH₃T concentrations. The HT and CH₃T concentrations did not have clear seasonal variation patterns. The HT concentration followed the decline previously reported by Mason and Östlund with an apparent half-life of 4.8 y. The apparent and environmental half-lives of CH₃T were estimated as 9.2 y and 36.5 y, respectively, by combining the present data with literature data. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the atmospheric lifetime of 12 y for CH₄ to estimate global warming in its 2007 report. The longer environmental half-life of CH₃T suggested its supply from other sources than past nuclear weapon testing in the atmosphere.     

Can we remove iodine-131 from tap water in Japan by boiling? - Experimental testing in response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Iodine-131 concentrations in tap water higher than 100 Bq L⁻¹ were reported by several local governments in Japan following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Some individuals in the emergency-response community recommended the boiling of tap water to remove iodine-131. However, the tap water boiling tests in this study showed no iodine-131 loss from the tap water with either short-term boiling (1-10 min) or prolonged boiling (up to 30 min) resulting in up to 3-fold volume reductions. In this situation, boiling was shown to be not effective in removing iodine-131 from tap water; indeed even higher concentrations may result from the liquid-volume reduction accompanying this process.     

基于灰色马尔可夫的道路交通事故预测

探讨灰色马尔可夫模型在道路交通事故中的具体应用。灰色模型适用于短期、数据量少和波动不大的预测问题,在长期预测时,数据序列拟合较差,预测精度偏低;而马尔可夫链适用于长期、数据序列随机波动大的预测问题。灰色马尔可夫模型结合了灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫理论的优点,利用灰色模型进行长期预测,再利用马尔可夫链理论进行波动状态预测,最后得到期望值。该模型克服了随机波动性数据对道路交通事故预测精度的影响,提高了灰色预测的准确度。实例结果,证明灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型具有较好的应用价值,为道路交通安全管理提供了有用依据。     

科学构建化工园区安全生产长效机制的关键要素

针对我国化工园区的发展现状和存在的问题,结合本质安全等现代先进安全管理理念,系统地分析了强化化工园区安全生产长效机制关键要素的手段和措施,为提高化工园区和相关行业的安全管理现状提供了科学依据。指出当前强化园区总体规划和布局论证以及严格执行园区准入制度的重要性;阐明建设项目本质安全化是重要关键所在,应通过在项目构建的不同阶段,分步实施本质安全化设计策略;考虑到园区重大事故多米诺效应概率显著增加,理论研究确定了爆炸和火灾触发多米诺效应的概率和临界距离;特别强调重大危险源的控制和管理是核心问题,提出了园区重大危险源的三级安全管理模式和园区应急资源评估模式。     

煤矿特种作业人员岗位安全胜任力模型研究

针对某些矿工个人具有事故倾向性现象,提出建立矿工安全胜任力模型,以加强矿工安全管理.笔者首先在对矿难人因事故报告材料分析基础上,从中发现特种作业人员应该具备的关键行为和素质,同时通过对煤矿企业特种作业人员访谈,最终设计煤矿特种作业人员岗位安全胜任力调查问卷,通过初试后的问卷项目内容分析、项目关键程度分析、探索性因子分析,形成特种作业人员岗位安全胜任力正式调查问卷.由正武调查获取数据,通过信效度分析,获得使煤矿特种作业人员表现出高安全绩效的关键素质和行为特征,构建煤矿特种作业人员岗位安全胜任力模型,安全胜任力包括安全责任意识、应急处理能力、隐患识别能力和自制力.     

炸药爆炸条件下释放气溶胶扩散研究

针对炸药爆炸事故造成的气溶胶污染物为瞬时体源的特点,根据事故应急时效性的原则,利用后置虚拟源等效的方法和点源扩散的高斯公式,探讨了炸药爆炸事故造成的气溶胶污染物扩散范围和浓度的计算方法,并分析干沉积和物质放射性衰变等因素对扩散浓度的影响。运用该方法对钚气溶胶扩散进行了计算和分析,其结果表明:该计算方法具有一定的有效性和实用价值,能为该类事故早期实施各种应急计划和措施提供参考依据。     

鞍山市化学事故辅助决策系统的开发

以科学实用为出发点,对鞍山市化学事故辅助决策系统的建立和开发进行了研究。分析讨论了建立该辅助决策系统软件的背景及意义;根据GB6944—2005《危险货物品名表》,应用Access2003数据库和VB6.0语言进行编程,构建危险化学品资料查询数据库,实现模糊查询和精确查询功能;通过分析、比较扩散模型中应用较广泛的高斯模型、SLAB模型、ADMS模型,结合鞍山市当地的实际气象数据,确定ADMS模型为该软件所用扩散模型,并根据ADMS模型和毒负荷法建立危险区域划分标准;根据鞍山市的实际情况,在灵图2006和消防水源电子地图的共同支持下,实现救援车辆电子地图导航和现场实时水源显示功能。