重特大事故的离散幂律分布——以煤矿事故为例

研究近年来我国每起煤矿重大和特别重大事故死亡人数统计数据,建立其概率分布模型。基于极大似然法和柯尔莫哥洛夫一斯米尔诺夫检验方法（K-S方法）估计我国煤矿重大和特别重大事故离散幂律分布的参数,并采用MonteCarlo方法随机生成大量的检验样本,对其进行K-S方法拟合优度检验。结果表明在统计学意义上我国煤矿重大和特别重大事故死亡人数比高斯分布的值大得多,服从标度指数为2．72的离散幂律分布。     

建筑施工现场坍塌事故调查研究

我国建筑安全事故频频发生,伤亡人数仍居高不下,给国家经济和人民生命财产造成了重大损失。坍塌事故的危害性很高,有效防治坍塌事故对预防建筑施工安全事故有着十分重要的意义。运用图形直观地介绍了2003—2009年我国建筑业坍塌事故伤亡情况的变化,运用相关分析的方法,通过对2009年来所发生的坍塌事故类型的数据分析,探讨了不同类型坍塌所占比例,坍塌事故发生的原因,并有针对性地提出防止坍塌的对策,以期达到有效预防坍塌事故的目的。     

Human factors applied to alarm panel modernization of nuclear control room

Human factors deal with issues related to humans, their behavior and the physical aspect of the environment in which they work. A control room is a complex system where operators perform plant operation using control systems and carry out monitoring and administrative responsibilities. For safe operation of industrial installation, the performance of the control room crew plays an important role. In this respect, a well designed control room is crucial for safe and efficient operation. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework applied to nuclear control room evaluation, through participatory ergonomics, using operator activity analysis and human factors questionnaire as aid tools. We describe a case study in which the methodology framework was used in the evaluation process of a nuclear control room. The information gathered made possible a series of recommendation for the adequacy of the control room design, assisting in the safety assessment of the nuclear plant operation and justifying the alarm panel modernization.     

我国矿难多发的原因

介绍了我国煤炭业的安全现状,分析了我国矿难多发的几个主要原因.认为责、权、利的不平衡、安全投入不足和严重超产、监管机制的无力、粗放的经济增长模式和教育理念的误导是造成矿难的主要因素,但深层原因是矿工的弱势身份地位,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策.     

核电站气载放射性流出物环境辐射剂量计算

计算大亚湾核电站正常工况下气载放射性流出物对80km的大气环境防护距离内的公众所致辐射剂量。根据大亚湾核电站2001年气载放射性流出物排放量,逐时观测气象数据及相关参数,选用修正的高斯烟羽模型和美国核管会导则1.109的食物链模型,运用美国橡树岭国家实验室编制的AIRDOS-EPA程序,程序经修改后适合于中国核设施的计算。计算得到2001年大亚湾核电站气态放射性流出物对周边80km范围内的公众所致的年均集体剂量为4.722E-3人·希,最大个人有效剂量为1.362E-8希。结果表明,2001年大亚湾核电站正常工况下,气载放射性流出物对周围公众造成的剂量当量远低于国家标准,对周边地区居民健康几乎没有影响。     

Provenance of unknown plutonium material

The determination of the provenance of 'unknown' plutonium material is demonstrated through a simulation study based on an isotopic fingerprinting approach. Plutonium of known provenance was considered as the 'unknown' nuclear material in order to evaluate the potential of the approach and verify its predictive capabilities. Factor analysis was used to compare the Pu isotopic composition of the 'unknown' material with Pu isotopic compositions simulating well known spent fuels from a range of commercial nuclear power stations. The provenance of the 'unknown material' is assigned to the commercial fuel with which exhibits the highest degree of similarity with respect to the Pu composition. The approach appears promising since it accurately predicted the provenance of the one 'unknown' sample considered; nevertheless, the approach is still at the development stage. Important challenging issues related to the simulation uncertainties and its testing on real laboratory samples have to be explored prior to evaluating the potential of the approach.     

A comparison of general aviation accidents involving airline pilots and instrument-rated private pilots

Introduction: The extremely low accident rate for U.S air carriers relative to that of general aviation (∼1 and ∼60/million flight hours respectively) partly reflects advanced airman certification, more demanding recurrency training and stringent operational regulations. However, whether such skillset/training/regulations translate into improved safety for airline pilots operating in the general aviation environment is unknown and the aim of this study. Methods: Accidents (1998–2017) involving airline pilots and instrument-rated private pilots (PPL-IFR) operating non-revenue light aircraft were identified from the NTSB accident database. An online survey informed general aviation flight exposure for both pilot cohorts. Statistics used proportion testing and Mann-Whitney U tests. Results: In degraded visibility, 0 and 40% (χ² p = 0.043) of fatal accidents involving airline and PPL-IFR airmen were due to in-flight loss-of-control, respectively. For landing accidents, airline pilots were under-represented for mishaps related to airspeed mismanagement (p = 0.036) relative to PPL-IFR but showed a dis-proportionate count (2X) of ground loss-of-directional control accidents (p = 0.009) the latter likely reflecting a preference for tail-wheel aircraft. The proportion of FAA rule violation-related mishaps by airline pilots was >2X (7 vs. 3%) that for PPL-IFR airmen. Moreover, airline pilots showed a disproportionate (χ² p = 0.021) count of flights below legal minimum altitudes. Not performing an official preflight weather briefing or intentionally operating in instrument conditions without an IFR flight plan represented 43% of airline pilot accidents involving FAA rule infractions. Conclusions: These findings inform safety deficiencies for: (a) airline pilots, landing/ground operations in tail-wheel aircraft and lack of 14CFR 91 familiarization regulations regarding minimum operating altitudes and (b) PPL-IFR airmen in-flight loss-of-control and poor landing speed management. Practical Applications: For PPL-IFR airmen, training/recurrency should focus on unusual attitude recovery and managing approach speeds. Airline pilots should seek additional instructional time regarding landing tail-wheel aircraft and become familiar with 14CFR 91 rules covering minimum altitudes.     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.     

某橡胶轮胎企业2010年工伤事故的调查分析

为了解某橡胶轮胎企业工伤事故的情况,应用有关安全管理理论和统计分析方法,对2010年的66起工伤事故进行回顾性调查,分析工伤事故发生的环境,以求找出事故发生原因及分布规律、特征,探讨工伤事故的危险因素,并结合橡胶轮胎的工艺装备条件,利用可实现的技术和策略,提出事故防范和控制的对策。     

大型浮顶储油罐雷击事故分析及防范对策

对几起典型的大型浮顶储油罐雷击事故进行了分析,总结了这些事故存在的共性问题。通过开展大型浮顶储油罐的直击雷及雷电感应模拟试验,找出大型浮顶储油罐导电片等现有防雷设施在设计和安装中存在的问题,提出了取消二次密封装置上的导电片、安装等电位连接装置等技术措施,以有效减少大型浮顶储油罐火灾事故的发生。