石油化工原料和产品运输事故应急预案体系研究

根据石油化工原料和产品运输的重要性以及当前我国面临的石油化工原料和产品运输事故严峻的安全形势,分别从应急预案体系的构成、要素、编制、响应以及维护等方面进行论述和研讨,为政府和企业制定石油化工原料和产品运输事故应急预案提供一种新的思路。针对构建该类应急预案过程中可能忽略的问题进行分析并给出解决问题的方法,旨在提高石油化工原料和产品运输事故应急预案的可操作性。     

The significance of domino effect in chemical accidents

A historical survey was performed on 330 accidents involving domino effect, occurred in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials; only accidents occurred after 1st-January-1961 have been considered. The main features – geographical location, type of accident, materials involved, origin and causes, consequences, domino sequences – were analyzed, with special consideration to the situation in the developing countries and compared to those from other previous surveys. Among the involved substances, LPG was the most frequent one, followed by liquid hydrocarbons. Process plants (38.5% of cases) and storage areas (33%) were the most common settings; 10.6% of past domino accidents occurred in transfer operations. The ratio between “two-step” and “three-step” domino accidents was found to be 6. A specific analysis of the accidents (84) occurred in the 21st century was performed, comparing them with the total set of accidents. Finally, a set of specific recommendations inferred from the results is provided.     

Public concerns and the public role in siting nuclear and chemical waste facilities

Nuclear and chemical waste facilities can be successfully sited, despitenimby responses, if siting programs account for the sources of public concern. Irrational fear is not the main source; instead, waste managers must deal with perceived inequities in the distribution of benefits and costs, and concern about facility safety. Benefit-cost inequities may be dealt with in part by keeping wastes where they are generated, through political restrictions, or by providing economic compensation and political incentives (for example, a local veto). Assuring people of facility safety includes allowing local control (monitoring, health assessment, regulation), and enhancing trust of facility managers through such means as rectifying past mistakes, individual-oriented education campaigns, and negotiation of compensation packages with local residents. These means should reduce —without eliminating—public opposition to local siting of nuclear and chemical waste facilities.     

层次分析法在环境风险评价中的应用

调查化工区周围敏感目标及突发性污染事故类型,根据层次分析法原理,建立层次结构模型,构造两两比较判断矩阵,计算矩阵的最大特征值及对应的特征向量,做出层次排序及一致性检验,判断污染事故类型的重要性。     

放射性污染防治对策与建议

根据2001年浙江省放射性申报登记试点城市－－嘉兴市的申报登记结果，在分析该市的放射性污染控制现状和管理现状的基础上，结合该市的实际情况，对放射性污染管理防治工作中存在的问题和薄弱环节，有针对性地提出嘉兴市放射性污染防治对策与建议，供有关部门参考。     

Prevention and mitigation of injuries and damages arising from the activity of subliminal enterprises: A case study in Slovakia

The paper focuses on risk sources under no legislative pressure in the field of prevention of major accidents. Despite this, they can represent significant sources of risk of accidents.The aim of the paper is to present the results of the risk assessment associated with the operation of enterprises not regulated by the SEVESO III Directive (the so-called subliminal enterprises), to provide information on possible operational problems and to verify the applicability of recognized risk analysis methods for these specific sources of risk. Last but not least, its purpose is to point out that subliminal enterprises, due to their location close to residential areas or areas with a high concentration of population, pose a serious risk to the population.The paper summarizes the results of the quantitative risk assessment of a specific enterprise not included in the Seveso Directive – a filling station. Filling stations are frequently located in built-up areas with a dense coefficient of habitability. Due to their number, location (e.g. close to residential areas), frequency of occurrence of persons in the area and handling of dangerous substances during normal operation, they can have negative or even tragic consequences to the life and health of the population.Due to the non-existent risk assessment methodology for enterprises with subliminal quantities of dangerous substances and the lack of a systematic search for risk sources, a risk assessment procedure for these companies is designed.     

The uranium and nuclear industries in China

This article reviews the available information on the uranium industry and the beginning of nuclear power in China. Few details of China's uranium industry have hitherto been published in the West. The broad conclusions reached are that China is faced with severe energy shortages for the foreseeable future; nuclear power will help to solve this problem but the timing and extent of its contribution are uncertain. The central question of civil nuclear policy is whether or not to use imported technology, although satisfactory development of the uranium industry probably will require foreign assistance. The principle conestraint in this regard is foreign exchange. To help overcome this problem the Chinese are now, for the first time, offering uranium on the international market.     

基于决策树模型的煤矿安全事故严重程度分析与预测

为将数据挖掘技术应用于煤矿安全管理,通过对我国1999—2015年29 000多条煤矿安全事故数据的研究,系统分析了事故发生的区域、时间、类型和企业信息等因素对事故严重程度的影响及彼此之间的相关性。通过构建决策树分类模型,在给定事故相关信息的基础上,对事故严重程度进行分类预测;基于数据类别不平衡的特点,采用欠采样的抽样方法,同时利用梯度提升的组合分类器来提高分类精度。结果表明,采用的数据挖掘模型在预测不同严重程度的事故上均达到了较高精度。     

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age

Objective: Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to–passenger car accidents and incorporates age—in addition to collision speed and injury severity—as a plug-in parameter.

Methods: Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression.

Results: The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians.

Conclusions: The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.     

Comparison of epidemiology and injury profile between vulnerable road users and motor vehicle occupants in road traffic fatalities

Objective: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major global health issue causing a global burden of mortality and morbidity. Half of all fatalities on the world’s roads are vulnerable road users (VRUs). The targeted intervention strategies based on fatality analysis focusing on VRUs can effectively contribute to reducing RTIs. This study aimed to compare VRUs and motor vehicle occupants (MVOs) in terms of epidemiology and injury profile.

Methods: We utilized a nationwide, prospective database of RTI-related mortality cases for patients who visited 23 emergency departments between January 2011 and December 2015. All fatalities due to RTIs in the prehospital phase or in-hospital were eligible, excluding patients with unknown mode of transport and those admitted to general wards. The primary and secondary outcomes were fracture injuries and visceral injuries diagnosed using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). We compared fracture injuries between VRUs and MVOs using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2? and 2+ classification.

Results: Among a total 3,694 road traffic fatalities (RTFs), 43.3% were pedestrians, followed by MVOs (27.0%), motorcyclists (18.9), bicyclists (6.6%), and agricultural vehicle users (4.2%). The elderly (>60 years old) accounted for 54.9% of VRU fatalities. RTFs occurred most frequently in the autumn and the VRU group and the MVO group showed significant differences in weekly and diurnal variation in RTFs. The injury severities (AIS 2+) of the head, neck, and thorax were significantly different between the 2 groups (P?Conclusions: Elderly pedestrians should be targeted for decreases in RTFs, and road traffic safety interventions for VRUs should be made based on the analysis of temporal epidemiology and injury profiles of RTFs.