A system design framework for the integration of public preferences into the design of large infrastructure projects

Large infrastructure projects such as new roads, railways and nuclear plants have often suffered from public opposition, causing significant delays and costs. In many cases poor engagement between the supporters of construction and the public have contributed to this. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel design framework with the aim of improving public engagement at an early design stage. Following a modified quality function deployment (QFD) process, it enables incorporation of public preferences into the design process, thus helping to improve the social acceptability of large infrastructure projects and reduce costs related to opposition and delays. The application of the framework is illustrated by a case study related to design of nuclear power plants.     

城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究

针对城市应急管理的特点,提出了一种城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法。在ARAMIS方法的基础上,对严重度计算进行了修订,引入了急性暴露指南（AEGL）标准对事故后果进行分区;同时,增加了与应急救援效率相关的指标进行风险目标的脆弱性评估;利用GIS技术,对严重度和脆弱性进行叠加分析,绘制出城市重大危险源区域风险地图。以液氨储罐毒气泄漏事故为例,对文中提出的方法进行了验证。实例分析表明,此方法为快速获取城市重大危险源区域风险的空间分布格局提供了新思路,对于降低城市突发环境污染事故的影响和辅助决策者制定科学的城市公共安全管理决策具有一定的现实意义。     

基于灰色系统理论的煤矿人因事故关键因素分析

通过对煤矿人因失误事故致因因素进行分析,统计出相关的关键影响因素,运用灰色系统关联理论,根据国家安监局近十年煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿人因失误事故影响类型进行了分析。以煤矿事故发生起数和事故死亡人数作为参考指标,计算和分析行为失误致因、个人违章、组织管理失误等十项主要与煤矿人因事故相关的灰色关联度,进而推算出这些因素的灰色关联序,确定出导致煤矿人因失误事故的关键因素,最终得到煤矿人因事故与关键影响因素之间的定量化分析结果。采用灰色关联理论对煤矿人因失误影响因素进行分析,能够很好地说明人因失误与各关键影响因素之间的权重关系,对煤矿人因事故主致因机理有更加深刻的理解,为煤矿事故的预防和控制提供重要的参考依据。     

基于事故/事件的民机人因防错设计关键因素研究

针对民机人因防错设计对飞行安全的影响,从世界民航安全事故/事件数据库中筛选出92起典型的人为因素事故案例,采用基元事件分析法进行深度分析,提炼出民机人因防错设计需要考虑的重要设计因素,并建立重要设计因素集。基于系统工程学的“人机环”模型,结合国内外飞机设计相关标准,建立民机人因防错设计重要因素指标体系。运用模糊层次分析法对因素指标进行权重计算,确立影响飞行安全的14项人因防错设计关键因素,并针对这些关键因素提出民机人因防错设计通用要求,以期为民机人因防错设计满足初始适航要求提供参考。     

基于Apriori算法的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故关键致险因素的挖掘

导致易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素繁多、关系复杂,挖掘关键致险因素是减少管理成本、提高防控效率的关键。研究了200例事故等级为较大事故以上的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的原因,采用事故树分析法建立易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故树,并运用频度统计法遴选出致险因素;在此基础上,建立基于Apriori算法的关联规则模型进行数据挖掘,共得到14个关键致险因素。通过对关键致险因素与易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故之间关联规则的分析表明,关键致险因素与事故之间存在强关联规则,单一关键致险因素或其组合的存在必将导致事故的发生,为实现危险化学品储运精准化安全管理提供参考。     

反核生化恐怖与大气科学

在组成反恐战略诸要素中 ,科技政策是核心要素。“9·1 1”事件后 ,反恐上升为美国科技领域的头号课题 ,政府加大了对科技反恐的投入 ,我国也面临同样的抉择。恐怖活动除了直接实施核生化恐怖威胁之外 ,还通过破坏核生化设施同样达到核生化恐怖的效果 ,甚至比直接实施核生化恐怖更为严重。据调查 ,各大中城市生产使用有毒、有害、易燃、易爆化学物质的工厂占全部工厂的 80 %以上 ,年用量成千上万吨。在恐怖分子应用最多的爆炸和燃烧事件中 ,人员的主要伤亡不是来自于炸伤、烧伤 ,而是因爆炸和燃烧所产生的毒气中毒。研究表明 ,在各种有毒物质传播途径中 ,空气和水体扩散所占比例最大。笔者针对反恐问题 ,论述了大气科学与核生化恐怖的关系 ,重点突出了大气科学、空气动力学及流体力学在反核生化恐怖科研中的战略地位     

Regulations of major accident hazards control in Serbia and their implementation

The paper presents a brief summary of contents and implementation of the current Serbian regulations on the prevention and control of major accidents involving dangerous materials. Further, it discusses issues connected with implementation of the regulation, including inspection, review, and approval of safety reports. This regulation comprises legal requirements and methodological guidelines for risk analysis and preparation of emergency plans. Although the roots of the Serbian regulation are basically in the Seveso I Directive, this study revealed significant differences compared with current regulations and practice in Europe.     

Can David and Goliath Get Along? Federal Land in Local Places

It is often unclear what the role of a local jurisdiction is with regard to land use management on nearby federal properties. Yet federal lands clearly impact nearby local communities. The US Department of Energy (DOE), with over 100 sites across the United States with varying degrees of environmental contamination, may be in a very difficult position with regard to relationships with local government about land use. Yet few, if any, studies have examined DOE land use issues. This study asks: (1) In general, how do local planners feel about federal government relationships with them? (2) Do local planners feel differently about the DOE than they do about other federal agencies? (3) What reasons explain any differences observed in answer to the second question? To answer these questions, local planners were interviewed from communities adjacent to non-DOE federal properties, and their responses compared to those of planners located near DOE facilities in the same regions. Findings showed that compared to other federal agencies that own land in the same regions, the DOE is relatively poorer at actively involving local officials in land use decisions at its sites. Primary reasons are the historic legacy of a culture of secrecy, focus on mission, and especially the lack of experience, training, or mandates in local planning cooperation. Findings also suggest that this attitude is markedly stronger in areas west of the Rocky Mountains. Recommendations for improved federal–local communications include the development of a vision for local government involvement that is supported by top levels of management and filtered effectively to the site level.     

基于人工神经网络的城市火灾事故的预测方法

随着社会经济的飞速发展,城市化进程的加快和人口的迅速增长,城市火灾频繁发生,造成的损失呈上升趋势。针对城市火灾事故发生的特点,根据人工神经网络基本原理和特性,建立了城市火灾事故神经网络预测模型;为了更精确预测城市火灾事故的发生,将城市火灾事故分为了高峰期(春节)和非高峰期两个时段分别进行预测;应用神经网络预测模型和分时段相结合方法对某城市火灾事故进行了实际预测。结果表明,神经网络模型是城市火灾事故预测的有效工具,该模型与时段法的结合能准确预测火灾事故发生的趋势。     

新形势下的核安全与辐射安全对策

随着核资源广泛利用,核安全也越来越受到人们的关注。笔者在新的安全形势下,从实际情况出发,分析了我国核和辐射安全现状,特别是近年来,世界范围内核恐怖事件的潜在危险在不断增加,核设施和辐射设施在运行过程中,由于失误等原因引起事故的可能性是客观存在的,在现代战争条件下,核设施极有可能成为敌人精确打击的战略目标,因此,核安全和辐射安全面临着新的挑战。针对核安全和辐射安全存在的隐患,应从应急组织体系建设、监测系统开发、人员培训、基本信息数据库的建立、应急决策支持系统开发、完善法规、加强国际合作等方面,提出了改善我国核安全与辐射安全现状的相关对策,以不断提高我国核安全和辐射安全的水平。