我国尾矿库事故统计分析与对策研究

基于2001年以来我国尾矿库所发生的66起事故,从事故发生起数、伤亡人数及引发事故的类型等方面,研究了尾矿库事故发生的特点,分析了事故发生规律,并结合我国尾矿库的特点及现状,提出了减少尾矿库事故、改善安全运行状况的建议与对策。     

事故风险控制中的组织管理措施研究

阐述事故风险控制中组织管理措施的内涵与作用机制,并分析实践中由组织管理措施缺失而导致的典型事故案例。指出组织管理措施有助于提升个体的行为安全水平、加强工程技术措施的有效性,以及促进企业安全目标的实现,进而达到降低企业事故风险的目的。在实践中,应将组织管理措施与工程技术措施、行为安全措施紧密结合,相互补充,共同实现控制事故风险的目的。     

一种基于Logistic回归的全损飞行事故分析与预测

运用Logistic回归方法分析全损飞行事故的影响因素,并构建预测模型,然后利用飞行事故案例进行了实证检验。通过对样本数据过离散、空单元、多元共线性和特异值、特殊影响案例的诊断,以及对模型的拟合程度和预测效果的检验,表明所构建的模型比较符合现实情况,而且具有较好的拟合程度和预测效果。模型指出航班类型和机龄因素具有统计学意义,国内航班比国际航班的全损概率要高;机龄越老,全损概率越高。     

工伤事故灾害空间分布特征及其与经济增长的关联性

以经济区域为基本单元,在对工伤事故灾害和经济增长空间分布特征描述的基础上,采用面板回归工具分析两者的空间关联性。研究结果证明:工伤事故灾害与经济增长规模之间存在梯度空间差异规律,经济增长对工伤事故灾害有重要影响,并且不同经济增长对工伤事故灾害的影响存在较大差异性,工业化、经济一体化程度和人力资本素质的区域不均衡是造成工伤事故灾害空间分布差异的重要变量。     

灰色均生函数模型及其在航空装备事故预测中的应用

提出一种航空装备事故的灰色均生函数组合预测模型。该方法先建立给定事故时序的灰色GM(1,1)模型,然后再利用残余信息构建均生函数模型。从算例结果可看出,该模型建模过程简单,预测精度总体上好于灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,更优于单独使用灰色模型的预测精度。从而表明:将灰色GM(1,1)模型和均生函数模型有机结合,由前者揭示航空装备事故的发展趋势,后者描述其随机摆动特性,能够较好地刻画航空装备事故的发展变化规律,为航空装备事故提供了一种可行的预测方法。     

铁合金电炉冶炼灼烫事故原因分析及预防对策

电炉铁合金生产成品的全过程中,岗位操作人员受环境、安全意识、技能水平等影响,灼烫事故时有发生.以所用企业近6年的事故实例,总结分析其原因;以人为本,加强安全管理,严格安全操作规程,改善环境,增强辨识危害因素的能力,提出了如何预防灼烫伤的防范对策.     

Incorporating the 2007 recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection into the J-value analysis of nuclear safety systems

The newly released findings by the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) led to a review of the lifetime risk coefficients for fatal cancer used in J-value analysis of nuclear safety systems. The change in life expectancy a safety system brings about by averting a radiation exposure needs to be estimated in order to calculate the safety system's J-value, and this is done following the ICRP's practice of using risk coefficients that are uniform across both genders and all ages in the defined population group (either workers or the general population). The ICRP predicted uniformly lower radiation risks in 2007 than in 1990 on a like-for-like basis, but it was found that the ICRP's new risk coefficients needed to be multiplied by a compensating factor specific to each population when used in calculating the radiation-induced change in life expectancy. Incorporating the new compensating factor leads to a decrease in the J-value calculated of about 5% for workers and 15% for the general population compared with earlier, reported results. These adjustments are not large compared with the uncertainties associated with radiation harm and the economics of installing a safety system, but will strengthen slightly the case for spending on a nuclear safety measure.     

A long term study of the desiccation resistance of Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans from the Mexican nuclear power plant “Laguna Verde”

The generation of electricity through the use of radioactive material at the nuclear power plant is inevitably associated with the production of wastes, some of which have potential impact on the biosphere. The objective of the present investigation was to provide information for evaluating the presumed impact of the Mexican Nuclear Power Plant “Laguna Verde" on the natural populations. Two sibling species that live in the immediate vicinity, Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans have been studied for several traits in a long term study. The present study describes results for the desiccation resistance (DR) trait obtained during the period from 1995 to 2002. Flies were collected at two sites, one near the reactors and another farther away. The data obtained confirmed that D. melanogaster had higher DR values than D. simulans at both sites. The analysis of the results obtained from both species of the site closer to the reactor indicated that the values of the DR in the operational stage did not change, compared with those in the preoperational stage previously analyzed. Therefore, the significant differences found between the monitored sites did not seem to be associated to the operation of the reactors. L. Levine Died June 14th 2006     

Multi-hazard failure assessment of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes

Hurricane as one of the most destructive natural hazards can make a devastating impact on the industrial equipment, especially atmospheric storage tanks, leading to the release of stored chemicals and disastrous safety and environmental issues. These catastrophic consequences are caused not only by strong winds but also by the torrential rainfall and inundating floods. The objective of this study is to present a risk-based methodology for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to hurricanes. Considering the shell buckling, flotation, sliding, and roof sinking as dominant failure modes of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes, Bayesian network (BN) has been employed to combine the failure modes while considering their conditional dependencies. The probability updating feature of the developed BN was employed to indicate that the flood is the most critical hazard during hurricanes while the impact of wind and rainfall cannot be neglected. Extending the developed BN to an influence diagram, the cost-benefit filling of storage tanks with water prior to the advent of hurricanes was shown as a viable measure for reducing the damage probability. The results show that the proposed methodology can be used as an effective decision support tool for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to natural hazards.     

核燃料元件生产线含铀废物源头控制实践

针对早期核燃料元件生产线自身所固有的不足,本文从工艺选择、厂房优化以及运行控制3个方面入手,就CJNF开展的一系列含铀废物源头控制实践进行介绍,旨在说明源头控制在废物最小化管理实践中的重要作用,为后期含铀废物源头控制方法持续应用和技术提升提供基础支撑。