秦皇岛海域溢油事故分析研究

通过对秦皇岛海域溢油污染事故进行分析,运用溢油风险评估的理论,对秦皇岛水域海上溢油风险作出了评估,以期当出现溢油事故时损失减小到最低。     

基于粗糙集的城市燃气管道破坏灾害演化诱发机制分析

利用粗糙集理论,在分析大量事故案例的基础上,构建城市燃气管道破坏事故的灾害演化网络模型,找出网络中各灾害事件的诱发因素,在此基础上,对诱发因素进行分级,并将分级的诱发因素作为条件属性,将各灾害事件是否发生作为决策属性;根据条件属性和决策属性,建立相应的数据信息表;对数据信息表中信息进行处理与计算,得到各个条件属性的上近似、下近似、正域,进而比较和计算分析得出可约简的条件属性,在此基础上,给出危机事件基于粗糙集的信息提取与不同条件下危机事件的预测分析。以交通封锁和交通堵塞两个危机事件的诱发过程为例来阐述上述方法,给出了在不同演化条件下交通封锁和交通堵塞是否发生以及发生概率。     

Key emergency response technologies for abrupt air pollution accidents in China

Abrupt air pollution accidents can endanger people’s health and destroy the local ecological environment. The appropriate emergency response can minimize the harmful effects of accidents and protect people’s lives and property. This paper provides an overview of the key emergency response technologies for abrupt air pollution accidents around the globe with emphasis on the major achievements that China has obtained in recent years.With decades of effort, China has made significant progress in em...     

典型优化目标函数下源参数反演性能对比研究

基于外场实验数据,从反演高估率、准确性、稳定性角度系统评估了8种典型目标函数在不同未知源参数反演情形下的反演性能差异.研究发现,不同目标函数反演性能差异显著.仅反演单参数源强时（Q）,对数变换目标函数高估率最大（79.4%）,偏差平方和目标函数准确性最高（P_ARD<50%=82.3%,ARD=（35.3±9.1）%）,目标函数稳定性无明显差异（CV<0.01）.三参数反演（Q,x,y）时,标准化均方根误差目标函数源强高估率最大（98.5%）,对数变换目标函数准确性、稳定性最高（P_ARD<50%=91.1%,ARD=（48.4±9.8）%;CV=0.01）;位置方面,偏差平方和目标函数准确性最高（AD=（36.12±11.39） m）,对数变换目标函数稳定性最强（CV=0.0018）.四参数反演（Q,x,y,z）时,标准化均方根误差目标函数源强高估率最大（98.5%）,对数变换目标函数准确性、稳定性最优（P_ARD<50%=61.7%,ARD=（55.2±16.5）%;CV=0.03）;位置方面,相关系数总体表现最优（AD=（34.37±10.72） m;CV=0.011）.整体上,随反演参数变化,对数变换目标函数源强反演性能最稳定.     

核电厂起重机安全监控管理系统的应用

本文从法规的要求和核电厂设备运行管理需求两方面介绍核电厂起重机增加安全监控管理系统的必要性,并以核电厂主行车安全监控管理系统为例,介绍了核电厂起重机安全监控管理系统的基本原理和系统构造,阐述了核电厂安全监控管理系统在国标要求基础上进行的设计提升和应用情况,为行业起重机尤其后续新建核电厂起重机安全监控管理系统的设计、验收...     

Occupational safety conditions of bus drivers in Metro Manila,the Philippines

The study looks into the occupational safety and working conditions among bus drivers in Metro Manila, the Philippines. Quantitative data were collected through survey interviews of 95 bus drivers using the stratified sampling technique. Results showed that bus drivers worked an average of 16?h/day and were engaged in risky driving behaviors such as over-speeding and road racing in order to reach their quota for the day. Fifty-nine percent experienced work-related accidents, with a mean of three accidents. The most common accident was hitting another vehicle followed by side swipe. The accidents were blamed on other drivers, followed by vehicle defect, inattentiveness and tiredness/micro-sleep or sudden involuntary sleep while driving. The most common health symptoms experienced by the bus drivers were fatigue, back pain, and cough and colds. This study underlines the need for an occupational health and safety program for bus drivers in the Philippines.     

Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994–2013

Objective: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

Methods: Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000–2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law.

Results: A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = ?1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) ? 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < .001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating a good model fit.

Conclusions: We described a generally decreasing trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.     

Analyzing injury severity factors at highway railway grade crossing accidents involving vulnerable road users: A comparative study

Objective: The main objective of this study is to identify the main factors associated with injury severity of vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved in accidents at highway railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) using data mining techniques.

Methods: This article applies an ordered probit model, association rules, and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) HRGC accident database for the period 2007–2013 to identify VRU injury severity factors at HRGCs.

Results: The results show that train speed is a key factor influencing injury severity. Further analysis illustrated that the presence of illumination does not reduce the severity of accidents for high-speed trains. In addition, there is a greater propensity toward fatal accidents for elderly road users compared to younger individuals. Interestingly, at night, injury accidents involving female road users are more severe compared to those involving males.

Conclusions: The ordered probit model was the primary technique, and CART and association rules act as the supporter and identifier of interactions between variables. All 3 algorithms' results consistently show that the most influential accident factors are train speed, VRU age, and gender. The findings of this research could be applied for identifying high-risk hotspots and developing cost-effective countermeasures targeting VRUs at HRGCs.     

A capping technique for emergency response in offshore blowout accidents

Capping stack is an emergency shut-in technique that can effectively control offshore blowout accidents. This technique stemmed the spilled oil well (Macondo) in 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout accident. However, few efforts have been devoted to studying the way to efficiently and safely conduct the operation of capping stack. In this paper, program evaluation and review technique (PERT) was employed to quantitatively design the operation procedure of capping stack. A mechanical model was established to determine the configuration scheme of capping stack. And a sensitivity analysis of operational factors of capping stack was conducted through orthogonal tests. Experimental results recommend to optimize the operation process by reducing the working time of diamond cutting tool down-pass, Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) upper riser incision, LMRP and original Blowout Preventer (BOP) separation, and LMRP recovery, in order to guarantee that the whole operation can be completed as scheduled. The results show that the number of ram BOPs has little effect on the equivalent stress of conductors. To improve system reliability, a five-ram capping stack is recommended to be applied in the defined accident scenario. The maximum equivalent stress of conductors rates the drilling vessel offset as the primary factor, followed by shut-in pressure, ocean current and top tension. The drilling vessel offset needs to be given the priority control and the shut-in pressure should be jointly monitored.