Accomplishments of the NATO/CCMS pilot study on international information exchange on dioxins and related compounds∗

A project promoting the international exchange of information on chlorinated dibenzo‐p‐dioxins and dibenzofurans (CDDs and CDFs) was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS) of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Initiated in 1985, the Pilot Study on International Information Exchange on Dioxins and Related Compounds was a three‐year effort to improve the state of the art of dioxin research, regulation, and technology by encouraging collaboration among interested countries and organizations. Participating nations included Canada, Denmark, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Numerous activities were accomplished to promote information exchange so that better informed decisions can be made concerning future research activities and resource allocations. Three major areas were addressed: Exposure and Hazard Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Management of Accidents. A total of 15 CCMS reports were published which summarize the achievements of the Pilot Study.     

煤矿政策对安全生产影响分析及实证研究

为分析煤矿政策对安全生产中的影响,回顾1978年以来煤矿政策和安全生产状况。统计了1978—2010年我国主要的煤矿政策,分阶段分析其与煤炭产量、煤矿事故指标之间的发展变化关系,运用EViews6建立煤矿事故死亡人数与煤炭产量之间的回归模型,并进行检验修正,比较验证煤矿政策的作用效果。结果表明:1978—1991年和1992—2002年,煤炭产量对死亡人数的影响系数为397.482,事故随产量的增长而加剧,但后一时期由于政策监管等因素影响,在同等产量条件下,煤矿事故相对减少;2003—2010年,影响系数为-283.770,煤矿安全状况随煤炭产量的增长而明显好转。     

上海市轨道交通网络可靠性研究

城市轨道交通网络是由大量相互作用的单元构成的复杂系统。为增加城市轨道交通对突发事故的应变能力,提升运营效率,基于复杂系统理论探讨轨道交通网络的可靠性。以上海轨道交通网络为研究对象,采用空间L方法系统分析其网络特征参量,从最大连通子图的相对大小、网络全局效率、网络局部效率等3项指标分析网络的可靠性,并就该网络受到随机攻击和蓄意攻击的情景分析这些指标的变化。模拟结果表明,上海轨道交通网络为无标度网络,蓄意攻击对网络可靠性造成更大的破坏,站点的度值与其重要性并不呈现绝对的正比关系。在轨道交通的规划、建设、运营中,应加强对关键站点的管理和保护。     

消防部队在应急救援中的安全管理研究

近年来,随着社会的不断发展进步,消防部队工作职能不断拓展,承担了越来越多的灾害事故应急救援工作。在这个不断发展的过程中,应急救援的安全问题不断凸显,暴露出了应急救援安全管理跟不上救援工作发展及更新速度这一突出问题。面对这一新形势、新任务及新要求,我们必须分析研究有针对性的安全管理对策,以科学发展、求真务实的管理态度来组织消防部队应急救援工作。本文从分析消防部队应急救援安全管理现状入手,提出并总结了一些预防事故发生以及建立健全管理制度的对策。     

三次指数平滑法在煤矿事故预测中的应用研究

随着我国煤炭工业的快速发展,煤矿事故频繁发生,安全生产形势依然严峻.针对煤矿事故的特点,根据我国1992-2011年煤矿事故死亡人数的统计数据,运用指数平滑法中的三次指数平滑法,建立煤矿事故预测模型,预测2012年、2013年的煤矿事故情况.结果表明,三次指数平滑法预测模型符合煤矿事故的特点,预测精度较高,适用于短期预测.由此可见,三次指数平滑法预测模型可对煤矿事故进行科学的预测与分析,为煤矿企业的安全管理提供依据,以最大限度地减少煤矿事故的发生.     

Developing a new alternative risk assessment framework in the work sites by including a stochastic and a deterministic process: A case study for the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

An individual method cannot achieve the optimum risk-assessment result in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the parallel application of a deterministic approach with a stochastic approach. In particular, the risk analysis and assessment techniques of the deterministic (DET) approach are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). Furthermore, the stochastic (STO) approach includes the classic statistical approach (CSA) and the accident forecasting modeling (AFM). The objective of this paper is triple: (a) the presentation and classification of the main risk analysis and risk assessment methods and techniques of the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach as well, (b) the development and presentation of a new alternative risk assessment framework (called as STODET) including a stochastic and a deterministic process, and (c) the application of STODET in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 17-year period of 1993-2009. In particular, the STODET application proves that required actions (or suppressive measures) are essential and must be taken in a medium-term period (1 working year) for abolishing the hazard sources.     

危险化学品事故多米诺效应历史数据研究评述

系统整理分析近十五年来国内外利用历史数据进行危险化学品事故多米诺效应研究的相关文献,介绍该领域研究的主要数据来源、主要研究方法,对主要研究内容进行交叉比对,整理挖掘包括危险化学品多米诺事故场景下的易发物质、高发区域/过程、主要事故致因、高频事故序列、致死概率5项事故内在规律并对规律的运用进行初步探讨。提出在后续研究中可以从改进采样时间区间设计和进行细分事故场景研究作为该领域的完善方向。     

我国拥挤踩踏事故发生规律、诱发因素及防控策略

为有效防范拥挤踩踏事故发生,减少事故造成的损失,运用统计分析法和案例分析法对2000-2014年我国拥挤踩踏事故发生规律和诱发因素进行研究。结果表明:我国拥挤踩踏事故发生次数及人员伤亡年际变化较大,总体呈现下降的趋势;秋季踩踏事故发生次数及人员伤亡最多,冬季次之,春夏季节最少;拥挤踩踏事故主要发生在内陆中南部、西北和西南边疆等地区; 学校、商场及节庆场地和楼梯（台阶）是踩踏事故易发场所位置;人为因素、场所因素、管理因素和自然因素是拥挤踩踏事故四大诱发因素。根据踩踏事故发生规律和诱发因素分析,构建踩踏事故防控的PPC模型并提出具体的防控策略,为相关部门预防和处置事故提供决策支持。     

Are pilots at risk of accidents due to fatigue?

PROBLEM: There is concern in the aviation community that pilot schedules can lead to fatigue and increased chance of an aviation accident. Yet despite this concern, there is little empirical analysis showing the relationship between pilot schedules and commercial aviation accidents. This study attempts to demonstrate an empirical relationship between pilot schedules and aviation accidents. METHOD: Data for human factors-related accidents and pilot work patterns were identified. The distribution of pilot work schedule parameters for the accidents was compared to that for all pilots using a chi-square test to determine if the proportions of accidents and length of duty exposure were the same. If the distributions are the same, then one could infer that pilot human factor accidents are not affected by work schedule parameters. RESULTS: The proportion of accidents associated with pilots having longer duty periods is higher than the proportion of longer duty periods for all pilots. DISCUSSION: There is a discernible pattern of increased probability of an accident as duty time increases for commercial aircraft pilots in the United States. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The analysis suggests that establishing limits on duty time for commercial pilots would reduce risk. Such a rule is likely to be expensive and could substantially impact the commercial airlines. In return, there is likely to be a reduction in the risk of commercial aviation accidents due to pilot fatigue.     

我国近年来桥梁事故发生的原因与教训

回顾1998—2006年我国桥梁事故发生的典型案例,从设计、施工、营运管理、水文地质和自然灾害等方面分析事故发生的原因;归纳和总结了事故带来的教训:认识的错位是引发桥梁事故的思想根源,法制的缺陷是造成桥梁事故的重要因素,科学规范的违背是酿成桥梁事故的主要根源、历史的欠账是发生桥梁事故的先天隐患、腐败的黑洞是导致桥梁事故的罪魁祸首。从培训教育、严格科技规范、健全法规制度、保障资金投入、加强维护等方面提出预防桥梁事故发生的对策,得出一切桥梁事故都是可以预防的结论。