公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

A quantitative integrated assessment of pollution prevention achieved by Integrated Pollution Prevention Control licensing

This paper presents an innovative, quantitative assessment of pollution avoidance attributable to environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing, using Ireland's pharmaceutical-manufacturing sector as a case study. Emissions data reported by pharmaceutical installations were aggregated into a pollution trend using an Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) based on Lifecycle Assessment methodologies. Complete sectoral emissions data from 2001 to 2007 were extrapolated back to 1995, based on available data. Production volume data were used to derive a sectoral production index, and determine ‘no-improvement’ emission trends, whilst questionnaire responses from 20 industry representatives were used to quantify the contribution of integrated licensing to emission avoidance relative to these trends. Between 2001 and 2007, there was a 40% absolute reduction in direct pollution from 27 core installations, and 45% pollution avoidance relative to hypothetical ‘no-improvement’ pollution. It was estimated that environmental regulation avoided 20% of ‘no-improvement’ pollution, in addition to 25% avoidance under business-as-usual. For specific emissions, avoidance ranged from 14% and 30 kt a^− 1 for CO₂ to 88% and 598 t a^− 1 for SO_x. Between 1995 and 2007, there was a 59% absolute reduction in direct pollution, and 76% pollution avoidance. Pollution avoidance was dominated by reductions in emissions of VOCs, SO_x and NO_x to air, and emissions of heavy metals to water. Pollution avoidance of 35% was attributed to integrated licensing, ranging from between 8% and 2.9 t a^− 1 for phosphorus emissions to water to 49% and 3143 t a^− 1 for SO_x emissions to air. Environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing has been the major driver of substantial pollution avoidance achieved by Ireland's pharmaceutical sector — through emission limit values associated with Best Available Techniques, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and performance targets specified in environmental management plans. This compliant sector offers a positive, but not necessarily typical, case study of IPPC effectiveness.     

Impact of training programs on decision-making and situation awareness of trainee watch officers

This paper examines the impact of training programs on the ability of trainee watch officers to make decisions in collision avoidance situations.It draws on previous studies which have shown that experts are able to manage complex situations in an acceptable way. However, observations of students on simulators have revealed that many of them are unable to manage such situations or even to recall their main features. It is therefore necessary to identify new training tools that will give trainees the capacity to assess a situation quickly and accurately, and to perform satisfactory actions. These would be in addition to formal regulations.Exercises were designed to evaluate the impact of such tools on the decision-making process of trainees. The impact of the type of navigation experienced by trainees during their on-the-job training was also evaluated.Results showed that decision-making exercises did tend to improve the trainees’ capacity to analyse a complex situation; however, they did not have a clear impact on the manoeuvre performed. On the contrary, there was an obvious difference between the trainees who experienced complex avoidance situations during their on-the-job training period and those who did not.At a time where ship-owners are looking to reduce the length of the “on-the-job” training period, these results point to its vital importance.     

Do global climate summits influence public awareness and policy preferences concerning climate change?

A survey-embedded experiment implemented around the time of the 2014 annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (N ≈ 1200) examined whether such summits are able to increase citizens’ awareness of climate problems. This study finds that exposure to positive or negative cues about the COP increases climate change awareness, particularly among participants who start out with a low level of awareness. Neither positive nor negative cues about the COP significantly affect people’s policy preferences. Our finding resonates with Bernard Cohen’s observation that the mass media may not often be successful in telling people what to think, but they are successful in telling readers what to think about.     

The varying effects of left–right ideology on support for the environment: Evidence from a Swedish survey experiment

Years of research show that left-leaning individuals are more supportive of environmental policies than right-leaning individuals. The explanation for the lower level of support among right-leaning individuals is their stronger preference for economic growth and lower acceptance of intervention in markets. However, recent cross-national studies have questioned whether the effect of ideology on environmental support is universal. A Swedish survey experiment shows that the effect of ideology varies greatly depending on how individuals think about the environment. Specifically, it demonstrates that if environmental support is contrasted with economic growth, then the effect of ideology is stronger as opposed to when environmental support is not juxtaposed with economic growth. Furthermore, among people who strongly perceive the environment as a left–right issue, there is a larger divide between left and right.     

土壤Cd污染对跳虫Folsomia candida的生态毒性

采矿及冶炼等行为造成了严重的土壤重金属污染,其中Cd污染及其带来的健康风险近年来引起人们的高度重视。利用弹尾目跳虫开展土壤Cd污染的生态毒理研究,对Cd污染土壤的生态风险评价具有重要意义。本研究将跳虫Folsomia candida(F.candida)暴露在不同Cd浓度污染的人工土壤中,利用跳虫存活数量、繁殖数量及回避行为实验来评价重金属Cd污染对跳虫的生态毒性。结果表明,Cd对F.candida的急性毒性LC50值为2 086.93 mg·kg~(-1),慢性毒性的繁殖抑制(28 d)EC50值为224.95 mg·kg~(-1)。此外,Cd对跳虫回避行为影响的EC50(48 h)为721.26 mg·kg~(-1)。可以看出,慢性毒性的EC50值与Cd对回避行为影响的EC50值近似,但远低于急性毒性LC50值。因此,跳虫F.candida的回避行为和繁殖率对Cd污染土壤有较高的灵敏度,可用来表征土壤中Cd的生态毒性。     

Estimating willingness to pay for a threatened species within a threatened ecosystem

This study conducts a choice experiment to determine the willingness to pay for Palouse Prairie conservation. The giant Palouse earthworm (Driloleirus americanus), a rare species endemic to the Palouse region, is included as an attribute of conservation and serves as a method for determining the willingness to pay for protecting the species. This method evaluates the value of the earthworm as an attribute of an overall willingness to pay for threatened ecosystem preservation rather than a direct willingness to pay for protecting the species. This method is expected to yield a more accurate measure of willingness to pay for rare species. The annual willingness to pay per household for the giant Palouse earthworm is $20.45 based on the conditional logit model and $19.30 based on the mixed logit model. Ranking and relative importance are included as methods for representing a non-monetary value and importance of the giant Palouse earthworm.     

Effect of phenobarbital and polychlorinated biphenyls on the toxicity and disposition of 1,2,4,5‐tetrachlorobenzene in the rat

Soil avoidance by earthworms has been generally considered a relevant and sensitive endpoint for assessing soil contamination by xenobiotics. However, when pesticide ecotoxicological assessment is concerned, the sensitivity of the recently standardized avoidance assay has been questioned. We hypothesized that this controversy may be due to the specific pesticide mode of action of the chemicals used rather than reveal inconsistencies in the test feasibility, i.e. provided that no pesticides interfering with neuronal pathways are tested, this bioassay should keep expected high levels of sensitivity. In this study, the avoidance behaviour of the earthworm Eisenia andrei under exposure to the carbamate insecticide methomyl [S-methyl N-(methylcarbamoyloxy)thioacetimidate] was linked to the corresponding acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition. Significant AChE inhibition occurred at lower concentrations (from 0.86 mg Kg^?1 onwards) than significant avoidance of spiked soil (from 5.62 mg Kg^?1 onwards). This indicates that assessments regarding pesticides that have neurotoxic activity may be biased if behavioral endpoints are selected. Despite theoretical hypothesis that have been raised, this should be the first study providing preliminary experimental evidence on such a link between avoidance behavior and neuronal impairment levels in earthworms. Further studies are ongoing that should refine conclusions of this study.     

微型测定法测定白醋中的总酸度

利用微型滴定法测定白醋中的总酸度,并对常量实验和微型实验的测定结果进行了比较分析。结果两种方法无显著性差异,F检验、t检验均在允许范围内,微型实验的准确度和精密度均达到常量实验的测定水平,完全满足化学分析要求,并且有效地节省了实验试剂,大大降低了实验成本。     

大学生英语口语交流障碍的心理因素及克服办法

目前大学生的英语口语表达能力总体很差,在口语交流上也出现各种障碍,其原因除学生英语学习能力较差以外,态度问题、动机偏差、缺乏自信、不耐挫折、缺乏热情、过于紧张、性格内向等心理因素也起着关键的作用。对于大学生英语口语交流存在的障碍,可以通过激发兴趣、心理暗示、教师鼓励、减少心理压力、结交外国朋友等有效方法,指导学生进行口语训练,提高学生口语水平。