EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.     

Disaster in the South Paciic: Impact of tropical cyclone "Nomu" on the Solomon Islands, May 1986

Tropical Cyclone "Namu" struck the Pacific nation of the Solomon Islands during 18-20th May 1986. It was sthe most serious natural disaster in the Solomons in lining memory. Nearly a third of the total population of 267,000 were diriven from their homes and 150 people were killed, with damage estimates beginning in AUD 25 million. It has been estimated by the Solomon Islands Ministry of Economic Planning that it will take seven years for the economy to recover. This paper discusses the major events of the disaster episode by employing the Powell and Rayner model of "disaster-time." Factors relating to current disaster Planning and management within the Solomon Islands are outlined. The paper also highlights assistance provided by Australla during the Post-impact sequence and illustrates the type of general disaster preparatory support which Australia provides to South pacific.     

Recursive residuals and model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models

Model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models are based on recursive residuals which are defined from the one-step ahead predictive distribution. Routine calculation of these residuals is discussed in detail. Various diagnostic tools are suggested to check, for example, for wrong observation distributions and for autocorrelation. The paper also discusses such topics as model diagnostics for discrete time series and model discrimination via Bayes factors. The case studies cover environmental applications such as analysing a time series of the number of daily rainfall occurrences and a time series of daily sulfur dioxide emissions.     

DISCHARGE AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT PATTERNS OF AN INTERMITTENT COLD DESERT STREAM1

Sage Creek in south‐central Wyoming is listed as impaired by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) due to its sediment contribution to the North Platte River. Despite the magnitude of sediment impacts on streams, little research has been conducted to characterize patterns of sediment transport or to model suspended sediment concentration in many arid western U.S. streams. This study examined the relationship between stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration near the Sage Creek and North Platte River confluence from 1998 through 2003. The objectives were to determine patterns of stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration, produce a sediment prediction model, and compare sediment concentrations for the six‐year period. Stream discharge and suspended sediment transport responded rapidly to convective storms and spring runoff events. During the study period, events exceeding 0.23 m³/s accounted for 92 percent of the sediment load, which is believed to originate from erodible headwater uplands. Further analysis of these data indicates that time series modeling is superior to simple linear regression in predicting sediment concentration. Significant increases in suspended sediment concentration occurred in all years except 2003. This analysis suggests that a six‐year monitoring record was insufficient to factor out impacts from climate, geology, and historical sediment storage.     

Fracture Characterization Using Borehole Radar: Numerical Modeling

Forward modeling of borehole radar data for a series of synthetic discrete-fracture network (DFN) models provides a conceptual framework for interpreting experimental field data at fractured rock sites. A finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) radar wave propagation model was developed for this purpose. Synthetic examples demonstrate the utility of single-hole reflection-mode and cross-hole transmission-mode borehole radar for (1) identification of fracture location and orientation, and (2) identification of fracture pore-fluid properties, which might change as a result of tracer tests or flooding exercises in support of resource development or site remediation. A two-dimensional, synthetic DFN was generated statistically based on hypothetical distributions of fracture length, orientation, aperture, permeability, and inter-connectivity. The DFN includes a zone of permeable fractures embedded within a network of lower-permeability fractures and a low-permeability rock matrix. We modeled the unconnected and non-permeable fractures as being filled with freshwater. To simulate tracer experiments, contaminant releases, or engineered-remediation processes, we considered alternately the inter-connected, permeable fractures to be filled with freshwater air, or saline water (tracer). Synthetic radar data sets for both single-hole reflection and cross-hole transmission modes were generated. The features in synthetic radargrams were then examined and compared to the DFN model to evaluate the likelihood of identifying fracture location, orientation, and pore fluid in field situations. This comparison demonstrates that (1) the replacement of freshwater with saline water in permeable fractures generally increases the amplitude of reflections from permeable, connected fractures; and (2) in general, radar reflection-mode data contains more information about fracture properties than transmission-mode data.     

实时荧光定量PCR技术对氨氧化细菌的研究

传统的PCR技术只能实现对核酸的定性检测而无法对其进行定量研究。随着分子生物学技术的发展,在传统PCR技术的基础上发展起来的实时荧光定量PCR技术实现了对核酸的定量研究。该技术是向常规PCR反应体系中加入荧光染料或荧光探针,通过监测PCR反应过程中荧光信号的变化来实现对核酸的定量。实时荧光定量PCR技术具有应用范围广、灵敏度高、操作简单、工作量低等特点,在医学和微生物学领域已广泛地应用于疾病诊断、病毒定量检测、微生物群落结构分析及演替规律的研究。文章综述了该项技术的原理、特点及其在环境氨氧化细菌研究中的应用,同时也指出了该技术存在的问题及其发展应用前景。     

Effects of operational factors on soluble microbial products in a carrier anaerobic baffled reactor treating dilute wastewater

The effects of feed strength,hydraulic residence time(HRT),and operational temperatures on soluble microbial product(SMP) production were investigated,to gain insights into the production mechanism.A carrier anaerobic batfled reactor (CABR) treating dilute wastewater was operated under a wide range of operational conditions,namely,feed strengths of 300-600 mg/L,HRTs of 9-18 h,and temperatures of 10-28℃.Generally, SMP production increased with increasing feed strength and decreasing temperature.At high temperature (28℃),SMP production increased with decreasing HRT. As the temperature Was decreased to 18 and 10℃.the SMP production was at its peak for 12 h HRT Therefore,temperature could be an important determinant of SMP production along with HRT. A higher SMP to soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD) ratio Was found at high temperature and long HRT because of complete volatile fatty acid degradation.SMP accounted for 50%-75% of the SCOD in the last chamber of the CABR.As a secondary metabolite.some SMP could be consumed at lower feed strength.     

关于显色时间对磷工作曲线影响的分析

本文利用钼锑抗分光光度法测定水中磷的监测方法,通过简要的理论、实验分析,得出采用该方法的最佳显色时间为15分钟至30分钟等经验性结论。     

含油污泥调质影响因素研究

针对某炼油污水处理厂产生的含油污泥,采用调质-机械分离方法进行处理。考察温度、pH值和搅拌时间对含油污泥调质效果的影响。结果表明,以PR—A复合药剂为调质剂,在温度为70℃-80℃,pH值为4．0—5．0,搅拌时间为30min条件下,经55kPa（绝压）抽滤后,含油污泥的处理效果最好,滤饼含水率可达到70．3％,进一步方便含油污泥的后续处理,有利于污泥的资源化利用和无害化处理。     

不同性质污泥在模拟填埋场中的稳定化进程研究

为确定污泥达到稳定化所需的时间,研究了污泥及改性污泥在填埋后的稳定化进程.结果显示,经过498d的降解,生物污泥、生物污泥+矿化垃圾和化学污泥中有机质的降解率分别为67.1%、61.6%和30.5%.污泥初始有机质含量越高,总降解率越高.生物污泥较化学污泥易于降解.按照污泥中的有机质降到100mg·g-1预测,污泥填埋场达到稳定化所需时间约为3年;按照生物可降解物质（BDM）降到4.76%为污泥达到完全稳定状态预测,污泥填埋场达到稳定化所需时间是2.9~4.7年.从上海老港污泥填埋场多年的实际运行情况来看,污泥填埋场在封场3年后即可达到稳定化,所形成的矿化污泥即可开采和利用.