地铁检票闸机通过能力研究

检票闸机是地铁车站的重要设施之一,其通过能力的大小对车站客流的疏运起着十分重要的作用。对晚高峰时刻客流进行视频录像,采用逐帧回放的方式,统计乘客属性、闸机属性、统计乘客连续检票刷卡的间隔时间和乘客通过闸机的时间,采用SPSS统计分析软件进行数据分析,计算乘客通过闸机速度和闸机通过能力。     

基于Voronoi图和时间效应的矿柱失稳预测

针对香炉山大规模地下采空区,借助Voronoi图确定分摊面积来模拟矿柱荷载分布、矿柱破坏、荷载转移以及荷载重新分布的过程,从而确定现阶段的不稳定矿柱,并在此基础上考虑时间效应。用该方法可得出,目前香炉山钨矿不稳定矿柱的失稳不会造成大规模的坍塌,考虑时间效应,则20年时间效应内二四坑口的南区有发生连续坍塌的可能。为防止矿柱发生大范围坍塌,结合香炉山钨矿的实际情况,最终确定胶结充填法为该矿山当前处理空区的最适宜方法。     

天津某老年社区夏冬季室内与个体暴露PM2.5对比

于2011年夏季(6月13日—7月2日)和冬季(11月30日—12月12日)在天津市某老年社区采集室内与老年人个体暴露PM_2.5样品,分析二者的质量浓度及化学组分特征. 结果表明:夏、冬季室内ρ(PM_2.5)分别为(138±103)和(173±136)μg/m3,二者差异显著(P<0.05);冬季室内ρ(PM_2.5)、ρ(SO₄2-)和ρ(OC)显著高于夏季(P<0.05),初步推断是由于冬季燃煤取暖排放的大量颗粒物渗透进入室内所致;冬季室内源(如清扫和吸烟)对某些室内PM_2.5组分(Al、Ca和Cd)的贡献较夏季显著. 对个体暴露与室内ρ(PM_2.5)的相关性分析发现,二者在夏、冬季均显著相关(P<0.05). 在受试老年人时间活动模式基础上,采用COD(分歧系数)评估室内和个体暴露PM_2.5化学组成的相似度,结果显示,室内与个体暴露PM_2.5的COD在夏、冬季分别为0.34±0.10和0.37±0.12;冬季受试老年人在交通微环境所处时间较长,致使COD大于0.5的样本数所占比例较夏季高. 室内和老年人个体暴露PM_2.5的ρ(OC)/ρ(EC)在夏、冬季均相近,说明二者的碳组分来源相似.      

Responses of the earthworm Eisenia andrei exposed to sublethal aluminium levels in an artificial soil substrate

Industrial discharges of Al are increasingly common. In this study, the activities of three antioxidases, malondialdehyde (MDA) content and changes in coelomocytes were investigated in earthworms (Eisenia andrei) exposed to different concentrations of aluminium chloride (range 0–200 mg Al kg^?1 dry soil) in artificial soils for 32 days. Within the first 16 days of Al exposure, catalase activity was elevated in most treatments, while the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) were inhibited in all treatments. After 16 days exposure, SOD and GSH-Px activities returned to normal at lower Al concentrations, but were still inhibited at higher concentrations, hence the inhibition of SOD and GSH-Px showed some exposure-level dependence during the late exposure phase. MDA content was significantly elevated from 16 days after initial exposure. Neutral Red retention time of coelomocytes decreased at the highest exposure concentrations after 32 days, and an increased proportion of cells showing membrane damage was also observed at this time using flow cytometry. We conclude that excessive Al in soils can cause oxidative stress and cell damage in earthworms. Hence, Al accumulation in the environment may present an ecological hazard through suppression of the important functions of earthworms in soil ecosystems.     

上海市大气降水中~(210)Pb、~7Be的变化特征

7Be、210Pb等放射性核素已被广泛应用于区域及全球物质传输途径示踪的研究中。2009年8月到2010年10月在上海市普陀区华东师范大学校园设采样点采集了51场大气降水样品,分析了单次降水事件中7Be和210Pb的含量以及湿沉降通量的变化特征,并对比不同季节的变化特征。结果表明:1)单次降水事件中7Be的浓度变化范围为0.21~5.99 Bq/L,210Pb浓度的变化范围为0.01~0.90 Bq/L。7Be和210Pb的月均浓度具有明显的季节变化特征:7Be的浓度高值出现在冬季,夏季浓度最低;210Pb浓度高值出现在秋、冬季节,夏季浓度最低;7Be/210Pb高值主要出现在春、秋季节。2)7Be、210Pb沉降通量与降水量有一定相关性,但单次降水事件7Be和210Pb浓度与降水量并没有很好的相关性。7Be和210Pb沉降通量存在着较好的相关性,指示7Be、210Pb沉降路径有着较好的一致性。     

Cu和Pb对赤潮异弯藻(Heterosigma akashiwo)生长的影响

以添加了不同浓度的CuSO_4和Pb(NO_3)_2混合液的f/2培养基培养赤潮异弯藻,通过分析藻的最大生长密度、生长周期及比生长率这3个参数与Cu和Pb之间的相关关系,讨论2种重金属对赤潮异弯藻生长的影响以及2种重金属之间的互作效应。结果表明,Cu为0～0.02 mg·L~(-1)或Pb为0～0.32 mg·L~(-1)时,对赤潮异弯藻生长有促进作用;当Pb浓度不同的条件下,Cu浓度达到0.5～2.5 mg·L~(-1)时,赤潮异弯藻生长受到明显抑制,甚至无法生长;在Cu浓度不同的条件下,Pb在1～9 mg·L~(-1)范围内,随着浓度的增加,对赤潮异弯藻生长抑制作用逐步增强。在Cu浓度为0～2.5 mg·L~(-1)或Pb浓度为1～9 mg·L~(-1)及两者互作条件下,赤潮异弯藻最大生长密度和生长周期都受到显著影响(P0.01)。另外,Cu和Pb对赤潮异弯藻比生长率无显著影响,两者相互作用不明显。结合湛江海域已报道的这2种重金属实际含量,进一步评估了海区中重金属的潜在生态效应。     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

基于GRACE卫星时变重力场模型的黄河中游地区水储量变化研究

论文以水循环发生巨大改变的黄河中游地区作为研究对象,利用GRACE卫星时变重力场模型以及黄河中游地区的水文数据,通过水循环系统的概化、子流域划分以及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,对黄河中游地区以及各个子流域水储量变化进行研究。主要结论如下：近10 a,黄河中游地区水储量以年均3.79 mm等效水深的速度增加,而引起水储量增加的主要原因是该地区径流损失量减少,年均减少量超过2.93 mm等效水深;黄河中游地区水储量的空间变化差异性较大,水储量增加最大的区域是龙门—三门峡区间,年平均增加4.59 mm等效水深,而增加量较小的是三门峡—花园口区间,年平均增加2.71 mm等效水深,水储量增加居中的则是河口—龙门区间,年平均增加3.47 mm等效水深。     

渔业资源动态的综合时序模型

渔业资源的变动是一个随机过程,它既有确定性趋势,又有随机波动的特性。论文把灰色系统方法和时序分析相结合,用灰色GM(1,1)模型提取渔业资源变动中的确定性趋势,用时序模型描写它的随机波动,从而建立渔业资源动态的灰色时序模型。考虑到渔业资源的变化受到捕捞强度的影响,同时建立渔获量和单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(CPUE)关于捕捞努力量的二元时序模型。利用灰色时序模型和多元时序模型,对舟山渔场渔业资源的动态变化进行分析和预测,结果表明灰色时序模型和多元时序模型能很好地拟合渔业资源的变动过程,精确地预测渔业资源未来的状况。     

地下综合管廊天然气管道泄漏扩散模拟研究

为了研究管道异常泄漏时天然气的扩散情况,采用Fluent软件模拟研究不同压力条件下气体在管舱内的浓度分布特性,核算保护半径为7.5 m时的报警探测器在灾变时的响应时间,以达到指导报警探测器设计的目的。结果表明:当泄漏压力为103.3 kPa,200.0 kPa时,对应的报警响应时间分别为2.15 s,0.45 s,报警响应时间随着泄漏压力的增大而减小,在常规中压输出压力下,响应时间最大值为2.15 s;同一泄漏压力下,管舱内气体扩散距离与泄漏持续时间成正相关;报警探测器的响应浓度以爆炸下限的20%为推荐值。