长江口北槽航道淤积过程的动态系统数学模拟

采用非传统方法－－现代控制理论中的动态系统辨识理论与时间序列分析相结合的方法对长江口北槽人工航道淤积过程作探讨，建模及预报，从得到的动态数学模型的模拟结果，预防结果看，与实际情况相吻，说明此尝试是成功的。     

Effects of uncertainty, transmission type, driver age and gender on brake reaction and movement time

PROBLEM: Braking time (BT) is a critical component in safe driving, and various approaches have been applied to minimize it. This study analyzed the components of BT in order to assess the effects of age, gender, vehicle transmission type, and event uncertainty, on its two primary components, perception-reaction time and brake-movement time. METHOD: Perception-reaction time and brake-movement time were measured at the onset of lights for 72 subjects in a simulator. The six experimental conditions were three levels of uncertainty conditions (none, some, and some + false alarms) and two types of transmission (manual and automatic). The 72 subjects, half male and half female, were further divided into three age groups (mean of 23, 30, and 62 years). Each subject had 10 trials in each of the three levels of uncertainty conditions. RESULTS: Transmission type did not significantly affect either perception-reaction time or brake-movement time. Perception-reaction time increased significantly from 0.32 to 0.42 s (P < .05) as uncertainty increased but brake-movement time did not change. Perception-reaction time increased (from 0.35 to 0.43 s) with age but brake-movement time did not change with age. Gender did not affect perception-reaction time but did affect brake-movement time (males 0.19 s vs. females 0.16 s). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: At 90 km/h, a car travels 0.25 m in 0.01 s. Consequently, even such small effects multiplied by millions of vehicle-kilometers can contribute to significant savings in lives and damages.     

薄膜结构在动风荷载下的安全性能分析

从理论和实践两方面对薄膜结构在风荷载下的安全性能进行了研究。根据随机过程理论 ,用计算机模拟生成具有空间相关性的风场。发展建立了膜结构几何非线性动力响应问题的有限元公式 ,并以此为基础对一具体的膜结构进行了动力时程响应分析。通过观察膜结构在不同风速下的位移时程曲线 ,笔者发现 :当外界风速小于一定的临界风速时 ,结构的位移响应会逐渐趋于稳态 ,结构的振动逐渐趋于稳定 ,这时结构是安全的 ;当外界风速超过或接近临界风速时 ,结构的振幅会逐渐增大 ,膜结构将可能发生驰振损坏。进而提出了通过增大膜内预应力或提高膜曲面的曲率来防止膜结构风振破坏的方法 ,并指出了在设计和施工中为保证膜结构的风振安全应当采取的措施。     

USE OF SOIL MOISTURE PROBES TO ESTIMATE GROUND WATER RECHARGE AT AN OIL SPILL SITE1

Soil moisture data collected using an automated data logging system were used to estimate ground water recharge at a crude oil spill research site near Bemidji, Minnesota. Three different soil moisture probes were tested in the laboratory as well as the field conditions of limited power supply and extreme weather typical of northern Minnesota: a self‐contained reflectometer probe, and two time domain reflectometry (TDR) probes, 30 and 50 cm long. Recharge was estimated using an unsaturated zone water balance method. Recharge estimates for 1999 using the laboratory calibrations were 13 to 30 percent greater than estimates based on the factory calibrations. Recharge indicated by the self‐contained probes was 170 percent to 210 percent greater than the estimates for the TDR probes regardless of calibration method. Results indicate that the anomalously large recharge estimates for the self‐contained probes are not the result of inaccurate measurements of volumetric moisture content, but result from the presence of crude oil, or borehole leakage. Of the probes tested, the 50 cm long TDR probe yielded recharge estimates that compared most favorably to estimates based on a method utilizing water table fluctuations. Recharge rates for this probe represented 24 to 27 percent of 1999 precipitation. Recharge based on the 30 cm long horizontal TDR probes was 29 to 37 percent of 1999 precipitation. By comparison, recharge based on the water table fluctuation method represented about 29 percent of precipitation.     

INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL WATER QUALITY VARIABILITY IN THE PIRACICABA RIVER BASIN,BRAZIL1

ABSTRACT: The spatial and temporal variability of dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), nitrate concentration and total coliform (TC) were investigated at nine sampling stations distributed along the main rivers of the Piracicaba River Basin, a 12,400 km² catchment located in São Paulo State, one of the most developed regions of Brazil. Spatially, a downstream impoverishment of water quality conditions was observed, as seen by the decrease of DO, and increase of BOD, nitrate, and TC. These changes were probably caused by accumulating downstream discharge of domestic and industrial sewage. Temporal evaluation of 18 years of data showed that DO decreased with time for the majority of the sampling stations, while BOD, nitrate, and TC increased. A law, approved at the end of 1991, proposed a new water tax for river water extraction for industrial and agricultural use. The amount of this tax is determined according to the water quality of the extracted water. Therefore, the evaluation of the water quality status in this basin is a first step to help resources managers to determine the values for this tax.     

MODELING HYDROLOGIC TIME SERIES FROM THE ARCTIC1

The general intervention model is applied to hydrologic and meteorologjc time series from the Canadian Arctic. The authors show how the model is able to account for environmental interventions, missing observations in the data, changes in data collection procedures, the effects of external inputs, as well as seasonality and autocorrelation. Methods for identifying transfer functions by making use of a physical understanding of the processes involved are demonstrated and sample applications of the general intervention model to Arctic data are shown.     

防洪新思路－气象工程防洪法初探

针对防治法－水利工程防洪法的缺点,提出一个全新的防洪思路－气象工程防洪法,通过从源头控制引起洪涝灾害的水源－降水的时空分布,达到控制水患灾害和充分合理利用水资源的目的,既可减少灾损,节省用于防洪的大量人力物力财力。     

性能化防火分析方法在大型地下商场中的应用

地下建筑火灾具有散热性差、烟气量大、人员疏散困难的特点,需要在消防设计和安全分析时予以足够的重视。该文利用性能化防火分析方法研究某大型地下商场在发生设定火灾条件下的烟气运动以及人员疏散特性,并通过安全疏散时间判据来评估人员能否全部安全疏散。     

机组行为、时间余量与飞行安全间的关系探讨

探讨机组行为、时间余量与飞行安全间的关系，为航空公司的机组训练和避免飞行事故及飞行事故征候的发生提供帮助。利用1996—2000年中国民用航空总局航空安全办公室下发的“飞行事故、航空地面事故和飞行事故征候统计的通知”中的资料，找出因机组行为错误导致的、与解决问题的时间余量关系密切的飞行事故和飞行事故征候案例。与飞行专家进行研讨和分析，探求飞行事故及其征候的发生与机组行为和时间余量间的关系。找出了因机组行为错误导致的、与解决问题的时间余量关系密切的飞行事故11起和飞行事故征候133起。其中因机组疏于监控飞机设备和状况、未发现问题存在或未明确所发生的问题的性质而无作为，使得解决问题的时间余量为零或接近零，从而无时间解决出现的问题，导致飞行事故3起和飞行事故征候96起；因机组发现问题存在并在明确所发生的问题的性质后，在一定时间余量内未能突破思维惯性的影响，做出了错误的决策，未能解决所发现的问题，导致飞行事故8起和飞行事故征候37起。飞行事故和飞行事故征候的发生与机组行为和时间余量的关系是，机组行为可以决定时间余量剩余的多少，时间余量的多少反过来决定机组采取何种措施解决当前的问题才能避免飞行事故和飞行事故征候的发生。