航空装备事故的灰色时序组合预测模型

为提高航空装备事故预测水平,提出一种基于灰色和时间序列分析模型的航空装备事故组合预测模型。先构建灰色模型,提取历史数据中承载的趋势信息。然后进行模型选择、阶数识别和参数估计,建立灰色残差的时间序列分析模型,用以刻画历史数据中的随机波动特征。最后,将2个模型的预测值相加,得到所求的组合预测结果。实例中,以美国空军1996—1999年的A级飞行事故10万时率数据为基础,建立灰色时序组合模型,模型中短期预测精度优于单一灰色模型,平均相对误差控制在5%以内,预测结果能够反映航空装备安全的实际状况。     

应急救援多目标时限指派模型

为实现应急救援队伍的合理派遣,对应急救援队伍的救援效率、救援物资消耗、最佳救援时间等因素进行分析。突出应急救援的时效性和救援目标的多属性特征,提出在保证应急救援最短时限的前提下,以应急救援效率最大化、物资消耗最小化为优化目标,构建最短时限应急救援多目标指派模型。采用线性加权和法将多目标化为单目标决策问题,运用两阶段法对模型进行求解。数值计算结果表明:最短时限的引入能有效实现应急救援队伍合理、公平派遣。     

灾害大规模混合应急疏散研究

为提高城市在自然灾害发生后的大规模疏散效率,减少人员伤亡和财产损失,以总时间最短为上层目标函数,应急疏散路网利用率最大为下层目标函数,考虑道路的通行能力及应急交通管理部门对应急疏散产生的影响,建立一个双层人车应急混合疏散规划模型。鉴于模型的复杂性,采用粒子群算法对模型进行求解。算例结果表明:有应急交通部门统一管理的路网应急疏散的能力比自然路网应急疏散的能力高87.3%。     

火灾烟气危害定量评价模型THVCH及其应用

为更加准确地评价实际火灾烟气的危害性,针对以往烟气毒性定量评价方法N-GAS和FED模型的不足,提出了一种新的火灾烟气危害性定量评价模型THVCH(Toxicity,Heat and Visibility Comprehensive Harmfulness)。实际火灾烟气的危害包括烟气毒性和烟气高温辐射。两者都具有时间累积效应,人员在火灾环境中的暴露时间越长,所受到的伤害越大。烟气的遮光性是影响火场中人员暴露时间的重要因素,低能见度下人员疏散所需要的时间是高能见度的3.8倍。THVCH模型在考虑烟气毒性的同时兼顾了能见度对人员暴露时间的影响以及高温辐射对人体的伤害。以重庆开县5.5火灾为工程背景,运用大涡模拟技术对其火灾过程进行数值重构。在此技术上采用N-GAS、FED和THVCH模型对不同阶段的火灾危害性进行了评价,证明了火灾烟气危害评价中考虑能见度和高温辐射的必要性。     

鞍山大气中有机氯农药的污染特征研究

布设鞍钢工业区6个点位,周边2个点位,居民区2个点位和千山对照点等11个点位,分别在采暖期和非采暖期测定大气中有机氯农药的含量,掌握了鞍山市大气中有机氯农药空间和时间变化趋势。全年有机氯农药各组分和ΣOPC浓度最高的功能区均为工业区周边,最低的功能区是千山对照点,六六六、滴滴涕和ΣOPC浓度变化趋势为工业区周边工业区居住区千山对照点,全市各功能区采暖期有机氯农药各组分和ΣOPC总浓度均高于非采暖期。     

随机过程“各态历经”理论应用于环境噪声监测优化布点

本文尝试应用随机过程“各态历经”理论,在大、中、小多个样本中研究城市环境噪声监测的时—空相关性,找出“定点测量法”与“网格测量法”的内在联系,探讨以“定点测量法”取代“网格测量法”进行城市区域环境噪声普查的可行性,从而实现环境噪声监测优化布点及为实现城市环境噪声自动监测布点提供技术依据     

CuO/AC@SiO_2的制备及对H_2S的深度脱除

采用模板法在CuO外包裹一层具有介孔结构的SiO_2,制备了CuO/AC@SiO_2。采用X射线衍射仪对CuO/AC@SiO_2的结构和催化活性位点进行了表征。通过固定床气固吸附实验,研究了CuO/AC@SiO_2对H_2S的吸附脱除性能。表征结果显示,CuO是催化氧化H_2S的活性中心,被氧化成Cu2O后吸附脱除H_2S的性能下降。实验结果表明:CuO/AC吸附H_2S时的有效穿透时间为117 min,CuO/AC@SiO_2的有效穿透时间提高到141 min,CuO/AC@SiO_2对H_2S的吸附性能明显提高;以Cu(NO_3)_2为前驱体的CuO/AC@SiO_2对H_2S的吸附量高于以Cu(AC)_2为前驱体;在Cu(NO_3)_2为前驱体、m(正硅酸乙酯)∶m(CuO/AC)=0.7、吸附温度为90℃的最佳条件下,CuO/AC@SiO_2对H_2S的吸附量达17.40 mg/g。     

Experimental investigation of bubbly flow and turbulence in hydraulic jumps

Many environmental problems are linked to multiphase flows encompassing ecological issues, chemical processes and mixing or diffusion, with applications in different engineering fields. The transition from a supercritical flow to a subcritical motion constitutes a hydraulic jump. This flow regime is characterised by strong interactions between turbulence, free surface and air–water mixing. Although a hydraulic jump contributes to some dissipation of the flow kinetic energy, it is also associated with increases of turbulent shear stresses and the development of turbulent eddies with implications in terms of scour, erosion and sediment transport. Despite a number of experimental, theoretical and numerical studies, there is a lack of knowledge concerning the physical mechanisms involved in the diffusion and air–water mixing processes within hydraulic jumps, as well as on the interaction between the free-surface and turbulence. New experimental investigations were undertaken in hydraulic jumps with Froude numbers up to Fr = 8.3. Two-phase flow measurements were performed with phase-detection conductivity probes. Basic results related to the distributions of void fraction, bubble frequency and mean bubble chord length are presented. New developments are discussed for the interfacial bubble velocities and their fluctuations, characterizing the turbulence level and integral time scales of turbulence representing a “lifetime” of the longitudinal bubbly flow structures. The analyses show good agreement with previous studies in terms of the vertical profiles of void fraction, bubble frequency and mean bubble chord length. The dimensionless distributions of interfacial velocities compared favourably with wall-jet equations. Measurements showed high turbulence levels. Turbulence time scales were found to be dependent on the distance downstream of the toe as well as on the distance to the bottom showing the importance of the lower (channel bed) and upper (free surface) boundary conditions on the turbulence structure.     

Predicting functional response and size selectivity of juvenile Notonecta maculata foraging on Daphnia magna

A mechanistic model was developed to assess the impact of predation of juvenile Notonecta maculata on size structured Daphnia magna populations and to provide a framework for quantifying the backswimmers uptake of food. Results of experiments and model predictions clearly demonstrate selective predation of backswimmers when fed with a choice of daphnid size classes, with patterns of selectivity differing across N. maculata instars. The model describes the foraging process empirically on the base of a general predation cycle including four conditional events instead of using classic functional response curves. For model parameterisation components of predation, namely probability of encounter, attack and success as well as time spent on handling prey was directly observed by means of video tracking experiments. Since attack rate, capture success and handling time appeared to be a function of prey size differing between Notonecta instars, the model takes into account ontogenic changes in both predator and prey characteristics. Independent data of functional response and size selectivity experiments were used for model validation and proved the model outcome to be consistent with observations.     

Effects of uncertainty, transmission type, driver age and gender on brake reaction and movement time

PROBLEM: Braking time (BT) is a critical component in safe driving, and various approaches have been applied to minimize it. This study analyzed the components of BT in order to assess the effects of age, gender, vehicle transmission type, and event uncertainty, on its two primary components, perception-reaction time and brake-movement time. METHOD: Perception-reaction time and brake-movement time were measured at the onset of lights for 72 subjects in a simulator. The six experimental conditions were three levels of uncertainty conditions (none, some, and some + false alarms) and two types of transmission (manual and automatic). The 72 subjects, half male and half female, were further divided into three age groups (mean of 23, 30, and 62 years). Each subject had 10 trials in each of the three levels of uncertainty conditions. RESULTS: Transmission type did not significantly affect either perception-reaction time or brake-movement time. Perception-reaction time increased significantly from 0.32 to 0.42 s (P < .05) as uncertainty increased but brake-movement time did not change. Perception-reaction time increased (from 0.35 to 0.43 s) with age but brake-movement time did not change with age. Gender did not affect perception-reaction time but did affect brake-movement time (males 0.19 s vs. females 0.16 s). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: At 90 km/h, a car travels 0.25 m in 0.01 s. Consequently, even such small effects multiplied by millions of vehicle-kilometers can contribute to significant savings in lives and damages.