Using structured systems analysis to design an integrated system for transport planning and environmental analysis

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浙江省萧山市山一村生态良性循环与系统管理研究 Ⅵ.山地生态系统动态模拟

本文在林地植物区系组成、植被类型、森林资源、土壤养分调查的基础上,对山地土壤矿化过程、树木生长过程和山地生态系统进行了动态模拟,预测了该村山地土壤含氮量、落叶层重、草本层生物量、灌木层生物量、乔木生物量,山地土壤可利用氮量、氮矿化速率、系统氮变化量、系统生物与净增长量的年变化趋势,为该村林地的规划、开发利用和管理提供了科学依据。     

The Danish eulerian hemispheric model — a three-dimensional air pollution model used for the arctic

A three-dimensional Eulerian hemispheric air pollution model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), is in development at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI). The model has been used to study long-range transport of air pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. The present version of the model includes long-range transport of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and particulate sulphate (SC₄²⁻. The chemistry in the model is described by a simple linear oxidation of SO₂ to SO₄²⁻, and the wet deposition of SO₂ and SO₄⁻ is estimated based on the amount of precipitation, which is calculated from the contents of liquid cloud water (see Christensen, Air Pollution Modelling and its Applicatioons, Vol. X, pp. 119–127, Vol. XI, pp. 249–256, Plenum press, New York; 1995, Ph.D. thesis, National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark). The model has been used to study the air pollution in the Arctic. Results from yr simulation with an analysis of the results is presented: the model results are verified by comparisons, to measurements not only from the Arctic region but also from Europe and Canada. Some examples of episodes in the Arctic including analysis of the meteorological conditions during the episodes are presented. Finally, the model has been used to estimate the contribution from the different source regions on the northern hemisphere to the Arctic sulphur pollution.     

Characterisation of HTO diffusion properties by an in situ tracer experiment in Opalinus clay at Mont Terri

A long-term single borehole diffusion experiment using tritiated water as tracer was carried out in Opalinus clay, an argillaceous rock formation that is accessible at the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory, situated in the Swiss Jura. The tracer was diluted in reconstituted formation water and introduced into a packed-off section of a borehole located in saturated rock. Pressure in this interval was maintained equal to the pore pressure of the surrounding rock in order to prevent any hydraulic gradient around the borehole and to avoid advective transport processes. The evolution of the tracer concentration in the injection system was monitored over time. After 1 year of diffusion, the claystone surrounding the interval was retrieved by overcoring the whole borehole and packer system, and by an adjacent oblique borehole. Compressed air was used as drilling fluid to reduce rock disturbances. The recovered overcore was sampled along profiles perpendicular to the borehole wall with a view to determining the tracer-concentration profiles in the rock. To avoid further evaporation of tritiated water, subsamples were immediately transferred into polyethylene bottles and disaggregated by adding a known amount of tracer-free water. Fifteen profiles were determined and showed a decreasing tracer concentration with distance into the rock. The pore-water contents were constant along those profiles, confirming that only very little water was lost during overcoring operations. The evolution of tritium-tracer concentration in the injection system over time and in situ profiles were interpreted with a 3-D numerical simulation of the experiment. That allowed for the identification of the transport parameters (orthotropic diffusion tensor and porosity) by minimising the relative quadratic error between the experimental and simulated data. The fitting is good and the results are consistent with data obtained on drill-core samples. The result of tritiated water is discussed regarding (1) the potential effect of mechanical and/or chemical disturbances around the injection borehole and (2) the specific behaviour of tritiated water.     

Assessment of contribution of SO2 and NO2 from different sources in Jamshedpur region, India

Contribution of pollution from different types of sources in Jamshedpur, the steel city of India, has been estimated in winter 1993 using two approaches in order to delineate and prioritize air quality management strategies for the development of region in an environmental friendly manner. The first approach mainly aims at preparation of a comprehensive emission inventory and estimation of spatial distribution of pollution loads in terms of SO₂ and NO₂ from different types of industrial, domestic and vehicular sources in the region. The results indicate that industrial sources account for 77% and 68% of the total emissions of SO₂ and NO₂, respectively, in the region, whereas vehicular emissions contributed to about 28% of the total NO₂ emissions. In the second approach, contribution of these sources to ambient air quality levels to which the people are exposed to, was assessed through air pollution dispersion modelling. Ambient concentration levels of SO₂ and NO₂ have been predicted in winter season using the ISCST3 model. The analysis indicates that emissions from industrial sources are responsible for more than 50% of the total SO₂ and NO₂ concentration levels. Vehicular activities contributed to about 40% of NO₂ pollution and domestic fuel combustion contributed to about 38% of SO₂ pollution. Predicted 24-h concentrations were compared with measured concentrations at 11 ambient air monitoring stations and good agreement was noted between the two values. In-depth zone-wise analysis of the above indicates that for effective air quality management, industrial source emissions should be given highest priority, followed by vehicular and domestic sources in Jamshedpur region.     

Review and comparison of methods to study the contribution of variables in artificial neural network models

Convinced by the predictive quality of artificial neural network (ANN) models in ecology, we have turned our interests to their explanatory capacities. Seven methods which can give the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input factors were compared: (i) the ‘PaD’ (for Partial Derivatives) method consists in a calculation of the partial derivatives of the output according to the input variables; (ii) the ‘Weights’ method is a computation using the connection weights; (iii) the ‘Perturb’ method corresponds to a perturbation of the input variables; (iv) the ‘Profile’ method is a successive variation of one input variable while the others are kept constant at a fixed value; (v) the ‘classical stepwise’ method is an observation of the change in the error value when an adding (forward) or an elimination (backward) step of the input variables is operated; (vi) ‘Improved stepwise a’ uses the same principle as the classical stepwise, but the elimination of the input occurs when the network is trained, the connection weights corresponding to the input variable studied is also eliminated; (vii) ‘Improved stepwise b’ involves the network being trained and fixed step by step, one input variable at its mean value to note the consequences on the error. The data tested in this study concerns the prediction of the density of brown trout spawning redds using habitat characteristics. The PaD method was found to be the most useful as it gave the most complete results, followed by the Profile method that gave the contribution profile of the input variables. The Perturb method allowed a good classification of the input parameters as well as the Weights method that has been simplified but these two methods lack stability. Next came the two improved stepwise methods (a and b) that both gave exactly the same result but the contributions were not sufficiently expressed. Finally, the classical stepwise methods gave the poorest results.     

A Minimal Model of Adiabatic Isotherms Surfacing in Very Shallow Waters

Based on a phenomenology that is rather frequent in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea), we analytically model the short time evolution of the temperature field inside a shallow layer of coastal water induced by a sudden offshore wind. In particular, we reproduce in a very simple way the unsteady surfacing of the isotherms forced by the marine current circulating in a vertical plane perpendicular to the coastline. The model is in agreement with the observations of a significant event recorded on 25 June, 2002 in the Gulf of Trieste.     

Modelling the responses of the Lagoon of Venice ecosystem to variations in physical forcings

A Finite Element Ecological Model for the Lagoon of Venice (VELFEEM) has been used to test the responses of the Lagoon of Venice ecosystem to variations in physical conditions.The model is obtained by coupling a finite element hydrodynamic model, that computes the velocity fields of water, an energetic model to compute the water temperature fields, and an ecological model that simulates the dynamic of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients (ammonia, nitrate and phosphate) organic detritus (organic nitrogen, organic phosphorous and CBOD) and dissolved oxygen.The transport model is a two-dimensional barotropic finite element model which allows for a better resolution of the lagoon morphology.The ecological model has been developed by starting from the ecological module EUTRO of WASP (Water Analysis Simulation System released by US EPA), and by adapting it to the peculiarity of the Lagoon of Venice.A reference condition has been identified by running a 1-year simulation under climatologic condition. Then, the sensitivity to physical forcing (tide and wind) and to the input of macronutrients has been investigated, by comparing model predictions of spatial and temporal evolution of major state variables and of an aggregate index of Water Quality Trophic Index (TRIX).     

Environmental Impact of Undular Tidal Bores in Tropical Rivers

A tidal bore impacts significantly on the estuarine ecosystem, although little is known on the flow field, mixing and sediment motion beneath tidal bores. In the absence of detailed systematic field measurements, a quasi-steady flow analogy was applied to investigate undular tidal bores with inflow Froude numbers between 1.25 and 1.6. Experimental results indicated that rapid flow redistributions occur beneath the free-surface undulations, with significant variations in bed shear stress between wave crests and troughs. Dynamic similarity was used to predict detailed flow characteristics of undular tidal bores. The effects of periodic loading on river sediments, scour of river bed and flow mixing behind the bore are discussed. A better understanding of these processes will contribute to better management practices in tidal bore affected rivers, including the Styx and Daly rivers in tropical Australia.