Alien plant invasions--incorporating emerging invaders in regional prioritization: a pragmatic approach for Southern Africa

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and semi-natural ecosystems worldwide. Most management-orientated research on invasions focuses on invaders that are already widespread and often have major impacts. This paper deals with "emerging" invaders-those alien species with the potential to become important problems without timely intervention. A climate matching procedure was developed to define areas of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland that could be invaded by 28 plant species that had previously been classified as emerging invaders. Information on the location of populations of these species in the study area was combined with information on their distributions (as native or alien) in parts of Australia and the United States of America. These two countries had the best available distribution data for this study. They also share many invasive alien plant species with South Africa. Climatic data obtained for weather stations near points of known occurrence in these countries were used to define the climatically suitable areas for each species in the study area. Almost 80% of the remaining natural environment in southern Africa was found to be vulnerable to invasion by at least one of these species, 50% by six or more and 24% by 16 or more species. The most vulnerable areas are the highveld grasslands and the eastern escarpment. The emerging invaders with the greatest potential range included Acacia podalyriifolia and Cortaderia selloana. The globally important invaders Ulex europaeus and Lythrum salicaria had a more limited invasion potential but could still become major invaders. There was no relationship between the extent of the climatically suitable areas for the different species and an expert ranking of their invasion potential, emphasising the uncertainties inherent in making expert assessments based on very little information. The methods used in this analysis establish a protocol for future modelling exercises to assess the invasion potential of other emerging invaders.     

Environmental risk perception, environmental concern and propensity to participate in organic farming programmes

This paper aims to identify the factors underlying farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes in a Romanian rural region that confronts non-point source pollution. For this, we employ structural equation modelling with latent variables using a specific data set collected through an agri-environmental farm survey in 2001. The model includes one 'behavioural intention' latent variable ('propensity to participate in organic farming programmes') and five 'attitude' and 'socio-economic' latent variables ('socio-demographic characteristics', 'economic characteristics', 'agri-environmental information access', 'environmental risk perception' and 'general environmental concern'). The results indicate that, overall, the model has an adequate fit to the data. All loadings are statistically significant, supporting the theoretical basis for assignment of indicators for each latent variable. The significance tests for the structural model parameters show 'environmental risk perception' as the strongest determinant of farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes.     

New fetal cardiac imaging techniques

Rapid advances in graphics computing and micro-engineering have offered new techniques for prenatal cardiac imaging. Some of them can be non-invasively applied to both clinical and laboratory settings, including dynamic three-dimensional echocardiography, myocardial Doppler imaging, harmonic ultrasound imaging, and B-flow sonography. With clinical constraints, a few others have been mainly used in laboratories, such as endoscopic ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging and biomicroscopy. Appropriate use and co-use of these new tools will not only provide unique information for better clinical assessment of fetal cardiac disease but also offer new ways to improved understanding of cardiovascular development and pathogenesis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three Different Topics for Bioremediation Application on Soils and Waters Contaminated with Aromatic Compounds, by Using Immobilized Bacteria

Molecular techniques and modelling are presented as powerful tools required in the performance of efficient soil and water bioremediation systems. An Escherichia coli CC118-D strain was constructed by inserting the Klebsiella pneumoniae hpa B gene, coding for the unstable 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetate 2,3-dioxygenase, into its chromosome. When the constructed strain was immobilized, both enzyme stability and viability increased along the studied period, in absence of antibiotic. We proposed this strategy as an approach to overcoming plasmid instability and to enhance enzyme activity and stability, avoiding antibiotic utilization. A model was developed to understand and predict the behaviour of bacteria and pollutants in a bioreactor system, considering: fluid dynamics, molecular/cellular scale processes and biofilm formation.     

A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.     

Ecological modelling of nitrate pollution in small river basins by spreadsheets and GIS

With the increasing importance and awareness of water quality in the small basins, the modelling system is developed for monitoring and predictions of surface water pollution. The compartment model deals with basin characteristics extended by land cover attributes. The parameters of the model are estimated by experimental data of water quality together with land cover types that serve as nutrient detention media or transformers. The study examines methodology to determine the potential areas of nitrate pollution from point and non-point sources by remote sensing techniques. Classification of water, agricultural, forest and urban areas is processed with satellite images (LANDSAT 7). Whereas the agricultural and urban areas act as sources of pollution, forest zones operate as sinks. The nitrate levels are decreased downstream, if the proportion of the forest inside contribution zones increases. The modelling system is used to simulate amounts of nitrates in each compartment of the stream during the monitored period of one year. The number of compartments and their lengths are estimated on the basis of morphology of the basin. Simulation of the dynamic model is carried out with the TabSim. Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing tools are used to manage and estimate nitrate inflows from point and non-point sources of pollution. The article presents the spatial and time variation of the nitrate (NO₃⁻) within the basin of the stream Rakovnický (the west part of Bohemia, the whole area of 368 km²). It is shown that the model approach extended by the GIS and remote sensing can support decision-making process for better management practices in the basins.     

Efficient and sustainable management of complex forest ecosystems

A large range of models has been developed for the analysis of optimal forest management strategies, with the well-known Faustmann models dating back to the mid-19th century. To date, however, there has been relatively little attention for the implications of complex ecosystem dynamics for optimal forest management. This paper examines the implications of irreversible ecosystem responses for efficient and sustainable forest management. The paper is built around two forest models that comprise two ecosystem components, forest cover and topsoil, the interactions between these components, and the supply of the ecosystem services ‘wood’ and ‘erosion control’. The first model represents a forest that responds in a reversible way to overharvesting. In the second model, an additional ecological process has been included and the ecosystem irreversibly collapses below certain thresholds in forest cover and topsoil depth. The paper presents a general model, and demonstrates the implications of pursuing efficient as well as sustainable forest management for the two forest ecosystems. Both fixed and variable harvesting cycles are examined. Efficient and sustainable harvesting cycles are compared, and it is shown that irreversible ecosystem behaviour reduces the possibilities to reconcile efficient and sustainable forest management through a variable harvesting cycle.