生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析方法的比较研究

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析是进行生命线工程系统规划、设计、改造与优化的基础。因此 ,寻找一种高效的适应性强的系统可靠性分析方法对实际工程应用具有重要的意义。本文主要介绍两种高效的网络系统两终端连通可靠性分析方法———递推分解算法和有序二分决策图算法。首先 ,分别对两种算法的原理及实现过程进行了详细的论述和说明 ,并且用c语言编制了二分决策图算法的计算程序。然后 ,利用这两种方法及随机模拟算法对 2 0个以往研究中的经典算例和两个实际工程网络———河南省电力网和上海市浦西供水管网 ,进行了网络系统抗震连通可靠性分析。通过对实例分析结果的比较研究 ,得到了一些经验性的结论 ,以期为优化设计工程网络时选择系统可靠性的分析工具提供参考。研究表明 ,由于递推分解算法具有适应性强和能够求得问题近似解的优点 ,因此有良好的实际工程应用前景。     

Disentangling technological innovations: a micro-econometric analysis of their determinants

On the basis of a unique firm-level dataset from the German manufacturing sector, this paper empirically examines the determinants of environmental and non-environmental product and process innovations. The micro-econometric analysis with multivariate probit models points to an extremely high relevance of R&D activities for all technological innovation types, as well as to the relevance of a few market pull factors. The estimation results additionally reveal the importance of organisational measures for environmental product and process innovations. In this regard, not only certified environmental management systems, but also specific process- and product-related environmental organisational measures and even general organisational measures, such as the certification of a quality management system according to ISO 9001, play a crucial role. The estimation results therefore suggest the encouragement of firm-internal R&D activities and organisational measures by (environmental) policy in order to stimulate environmental technological innovations, which are able to both limit the environmental burden and contribute to the technological modernisation of the economy.     

个人特征、家庭特征对农村非农就业影响的实证

工业化对于一个国家或地区经济腾飞的重要性,已经被西方发达国家的经验和道路所证实。在实现工业化的过程中,农村劳动力转移是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的重要课题。本文运用行为主义研究方法,利用2003-2006年全国农村固定观察点的数据,建立Probit模型实证分析了农民个体特征和农户家庭特征对农村非农就业的影响。研究发现:就样本个人特征而言,户主或家庭主要经营者、男性、文化程度较高、身体健康的农民从事农村非农就业的意愿更强,职业教育或培训对于农村非农就业有明显的促进作用,而是否农业户口对农村非农就业的影响并不明显。就样本家庭特征而言,家庭类型会影响农民在农村的非农就业倾向,同时,乡村干部户从事非农产业的倾向性更强,少数民族户和信教户从事非农产业的倾向性较弱,"是否国家干部职工户"、"是否党员户"对农村非农就业的影响并不显著。重视农民的个人特征和家庭特征差异,大力发展农村非农产业,促进农村非农就业是我国政府解决农村剩余劳动力转移问题的重要战略选择。     

全国各省域碳达峰时空特征及影响因素

中国碳达峰是全球气候治理的重要议程,中国各省级地区的碳达峰研究对全国碳达峰任务达成和路径安排具有重要影响和现实支撑。基于混合型能源投入产出模型,延伸构建了碳达峰时间预测模型。在经济发展和碳排放强度改善的9种组合情景下,预测了2020— 2040年全国30个省级地区（除西藏、台湾、香港和澳门）的碳排放总量,并通过拟合计算与历史期峰值的比较,得到碳达峰时间。在此基础上,利用Probit模型对各地区是否能够在2030年前达到碳峰值做影响因素分析。结果显示：（1）中国各省级地区碳达峰时间差异明显,在空间格局上呈南北条带状聚集。（2）碳排放强度的改善对碳达峰时间影响较大,4% yr^-1的改善对 2030年前达峰最有利。（3）产业结构、政府干预程度、对外开放程度对能否在2030年前实现碳达峰目标影响显著。     

Climate change and adoption of sustainable land management practices in the Niger basin of Benin

Due to the important role that the agricultural sector plays in sustaining growth and reducing poverty in developing countries, the adoption of practices that have the potential to simultaneously improve agricultural productivity while minimizing environmental impacts is essential. This paper examines the determinants of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and subsequent adoption of sustainable land management practices in the Niger basin of Benin. Binary and multivariate probit models are applied in a two‐stage regression procedure to cross‐sectional data collected through a survey of 545 randomly selected farm households in 28 villages. The findings indicate that there are substitutabilities among three pairs of sustainable land management practices being used by the farmers. Climate change perception is positively related to land tenure, experience in farming, number of relatives, tractor use, and membership in farmers’ organizations, and negatively related to household size, remoteness, and plough use. Moreover, the findings reveal that the uptake of land management practices is related to assets, land tenure, education level of the household head, remoteness, social network, non‐irrigated land size, having a farm located near a river/lake/stream, tractor and plough use, being a subsistence farmer or not, and memberships in farmers’ organizations. The adoption of sustainable land management practices could be encouraged through improving access to markets, adequate roads, and technologies, as well as by promoting membership in farmers’ organizations.     

Commuting patterns of Czech households exposed to flood risk from the Bečva river

Using unique data collected in October–December 2012 we estimate the link between commuting for work and level of individual exposure to floods. We find that commuters on average have higher earnings than non-commuters. Individuals affected by one flood commute by 11.2% more than unaffected individuals. We conjecture that the increase is linked to intentions to cover flood-related losses, decrease households' vulnerability to flood risk or out-migrate from the risk areas. Individuals affected by at least two floods are by 20.2% less likely to commute relative to those unaffected. We explain this non-linear effect by the fact that many households out-migrate after the first flood. Stayers commute less, because they are different from non-stayers in some underlying characteristics related to education, employment and family circumstances, which strongly affect commuting behaviour. We further find that in a commuting family an individual is by 53.8% more likely to commence commuting relative to a non-commuting family. Choice of commuting destination is often similar to that of other family members.     

Willingness to pay towards a public good: how does a refund option affect stated values?

Mandatory taxes and/or voluntary contributions are commonly adopted as the payment vehicle when eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) in environmental valuation studies. While mandatory taxes may arouse negative feelings, voluntary contributions may lead to strategic behaviour (over bidding) or free riding (under bidding). In this paper, we explore an alternative payment vehicle which avoids the draconian undertones associated with taxes and may be more incentive compatible than a voluntary contribution – a tax that incorporates a refund option. The template for such a payment vehicle is the value added tax charged to tourists in Ireland, but which can be reclaimed on exiting the country. In the context of raising public funds to support the conservation of rural countryside landscape, a comparison is made between the elicited WTP via a mandatory tax and that elicited via the alternative payment method incorporating a refund option. While we observe similar participation rates between the two payment methods, the refund option reveals a higher stated WTP.     

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices: Evidence from a semi-arid region of Ethiopia

In the wake of the resource constraints for external farm inputs faced by farmers in developing countries, sustainable agriculture practices that rely on renewable local or farm resources present desirable options for enhancing agriculture productivity. In this study, plot-level data from the semi-arid region of Ethiopia, Tigray are used to investigate the factors influencing farmers' decisions to adopt agriculture practices, with a particular focus on conservation tillage, compost and chemical fertilizer. A trivariate probit model is used to analyze the determinants of adoption of these practices. In addition, stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare the productivity impacts of compost with that of chemical fertilizer based on a six-year cross-sectional farm-level dataset. Our results indicate heterogeneity with regard to the factors that influence adoption decisions of the three practices and the importance of both plot and household characteristics on influencing adoption decisions. In particular, we found that household endowments and access to information, among other factors, impact the choice of sustainable farming practices significantly. Furthermore, the use of stochastic dominance analysis supported the contention that sustainable farming practices enhance productivity. They even proved to be superior to the use of chemical fertilizers — justifying the need to investigate factors that influence adoption of these practices and to use this knowledge to formulate policies that encourage adoption.     

Probabilistic approaches in the effect assessment of toxic chemicals. What are the benefits and limitations?

There is an ongoing discussion whether in the environmental risk assessment for chemicals the so called 'deterministic' approach using point estimates of exposure and effect concentrations is still appropriate. Instead, the more detailed and scientifically sounder probabilistic methods that have been developed over the last years are widely recommended. Here, we present the results of a probabilistic effect assessment for the aquatic environment performed for the pesticide methyl parathion and compare them with the results obtained with the common deterministic approach as described in the EU Technical Guidance Document. Methyl parathion was chosen because a sufficient data set (acute toxicity data for about 70 species) was available. The assumptions underlying the probabilistic effect assessment are discussed in the light of the results obtained for methyl parathion. Two important assumptions made by many studies are: (i) a sufficient number of ecologically relevant toxicity data is available, (ii) the toxicity data follow a certain distribution such as log-normal. Considering the scarcity of data for many industrial chemicals, we conclude that these assumptions would not be fulfilled in many cases if the probabilistic assessment was applied to the majority of industrial chemicals. Therefore, despite the well-known limitations of the deterministic approach, it should not be replaced by probabilistic methods unless the assumptions of these methods are carefully checked in each individual case, which would significantly increase the effort for the assessment procedure.     

Adsorption of benzene,cyclohexane and hexane on ordered mesoporous carbon

Ordered mesoporous carbon (OMC) with high specific surface area and large pore volume was synthesized and tested for use as an adsorbent for volatile organic compound (VOC) disposal. Benzene, cyclohexane and hexane were selected as typical adsorbates due to their different molecular sizes and extensive utilization in industrial processes. In spite of their structural differences, high adsorption amounts were achieved for all three adsorbates, as the pore size of OMC is large enough for the access of these VOCs. In addition, the unusual bimodal-like pore size distribution gives the adsorbates a higher diffusion rate compared with conventional adsorbents such as activated carbon and carbon molecular sieve. Kinetic analysis suggests that the adsorption barriers mainly originated from the difficulty of VOC vapor molecules entering the pore channels of adsorbents. Therefore, its superior adsorption ability toward VOCs, together with a high diffusion rate, makes the ordered mesoporous carbon a promising potential adsorbent for VOC disposal.