Heteroscedastic semiparametric models for domestic water consumption aggregated data

Heteroscedastic additive and multiplicative models are proposed to disaggregate household data on water consumption from Athens and provide individual consumption estimates. The models adjust for heteroscedasticity assuming that variances relate to covariates. Household characteristics that can influence consumption are also included into models in order to allow for a clearer measurement of individual characteristics effects. Estimation is accomplished through a penalized least squares approach. The method is applied to a sample of real data related to domestic water consumption in Athens. The results show a greater consumption of water for males while the single-female households are these that use the lowest quantities of water. The consumption curves by age and gender are constructed presenting differences between the two sexes.

基质诱导硝化测定的土壤中锌的毒性阈值、主控因子及预测模型研究

选取我国有代表性的16种土壤,通过基质诱导硝化(SIN)的方法,研究了淋洗与未淋洗处理后,土壤中外源Zn对不同土壤潜在硝化速率(PNR)的影响。结果表明:在未淋洗处理土壤中Zn毒性的EC50(使PNR降低至对照一半土壤中Zn的浓度)值的范围为197～1874mg·kg-1,相差近9.51倍;总体而言,土壤pH、有机碳及粘粒含量的提高可以降低土壤中Zn的毒性。偏相关分析结果表明,影响土壤中Zn对潜在硝化速率抑制作用的主要因子依次为土壤pH、有机碳含量及粘粒含量;淋洗处理明显提高了土壤中外源Zn的毒性阈值浓度,在不同土壤中,淋洗因子(定义为淋洗后的土壤Zn毒性的EC50与非淋洗EC50的比值)范围为1.16～1.43;基于土壤主要性质的多元回归预测模型结果表明,利用土壤性状(pH、有机碳和粘粒含量)可以很好地预测土壤中Zn对硝化速率抑制的毒性阈值。     

农业耕作对三峡水库支流库湾消落带土壤氮、磷含量及流失的影响

三峡水库低水位运行时,消落带由于落干期与作物生长期重叠,常被近岸农民开垦利用,然而传统的农业种植可能会影响库区水环境.为对比农耕和弃耕的水环境效应,选择一级支流澎溪河库湾消落带为研究区域,以玉米、土豆和花生地为研究对象,选择农耕期（2018年3~9月）和退耕期（2019年3~9月）对农耕地和弃耕地土壤各氮、磷形态含量进行研究,同时构建了农耕地与弃耕地氮、磷平衡模型,比较分析农耕和弃耕状态下土壤氮、磷收支特征及其流失风险.结果表明,玉米地土壤氨氮、全磷和无机磷含量在不同种植期差异显著;农耕地的氨氮和硝态氮的含量显著高于弃耕地,全磷、无机磷和钙结合态磷的含量显著低于弃耕地;土壤氮、磷盈余量大小顺序为玉米>土豆>花生,分别是76.89、51.92和43.74 kg·hm^-2以及79.69、75.76和17.78 kg·hm^-2,整体上,3种作物用地氮、磷盈余量大于流失风险值,研究区农耕地氮、磷污染潜势呈现.综上可知,消落带农业耕作将迫使氮、磷流失风险加剧,不利于水环境保护.     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

Modeling individual and population dynamics in a consumer–resource system: Behavior under food limitation and crowding and the effect on population cycling in Daphnia

In population modeling, a considerable level of complexity is often required to provide trustworthy results, comparable with field observations. By assuring sufficient detail at the individual level while preserving the potential to explore the consequences at higher levels, individual-based modeling may thus provide a useful tool to investigate dynamics at different levels of organization. Still, population dynamics resulting from such models are often at odds with observations from the field. This may be partly caused by a lack of focus on the individual dynamics under conditions of food stress and starvation. I developed a physiologically structured, individual-based simulation model to investigate life history of Daphnia and its effect on population dynamics in response to the productivity of the system. In verifying model behavior with available literature data on life history and physiology, I paid special attention to the dynamics of food intake and the verification of individual level results under conditions of food limitation and starvation. I show that the maximum filtering rates under low food levels used in the current model are much closer to measured filtering rates than the ones used in other models. Being consistent with results on physiology and life history from experiments at a wide range of food availability (including starvation), the model generates low amplitude or high amplitude population density cycles depending on the productivity of the system, as observed in field and experimental populations of Daphnia and with the minimum population densities being one to two orders of magnitude lower in the high amplitude than in the low amplitude cycles. To generate results which are not only qualitatively but also quantitatively comparable to experimental and field observations, however, a crowding effect on the filtering response has to be incorporated in the model.     

On the use of growth rate parameters for projecting population sizes: Application to aphids

This paper extends the application of the cumulative size based mechanistic model, which has previously been shown to describe diverse aphid population size data well. The mechanistic model is reviewed with a focus on the explanatory role of the birth and death rate formulation. An analysis of two data sets, one on the mustard aphid and the other on the pecan aphid, indicates that multiple linear regression equations based on the estimated birth and death rate parameters alone account for nearly all (R² > 0.95) of the variability in two key population attributes, namely the peak count and the cumulative density. This indicates that population size variables may be projected directly from the growth rate parameters using linear equations. Such linear relationships based on the birth and death rate parameters are shown to hold also for certain generalized mechanistic models for which the analytical solution is not available. The birth and death rate coefficients, therefore, constitute a new succinct set of variables that could be included in the predictive modeling of aphid populations, as well as other insect and animal populations with local collapse which follow similar growth dynamics.     

Closed population estimation models and their extensions in Program MARK

Program MARK provides > 65 data types in a common configuration for the estimation of population parameters from mark-encounter data. Encounter information from live captures, live resightings, and dead recoveries can be incorporated to estimate demographic parameters. Available estimates include survival (S or ϕ), rate of population change (λ), transition rates between strata (Ψ), emigration and immigration rates, and population size (N). Although N is the parameter most often desired by biologists, N is one of the most difficult parameters to estimate precisely without bias for a geographically and demographically closed population. The set of closed population estimation models available in Program MARK incorporate time (t) and behavioral (b) variation, and individual heterogeneity (h) in the estimation of capture and recapture probabilities in a likelihood framework. The full range of models from M ₀ (null model with all capture and recapture probabilities equal) to M _tbh are possible, including the ability to include temporal, group, and individual covariates to model capture and recapture probabilities. Both the full likelihood formulation of Otis et al. (1978) and the conditional model formulation of Huggins (1989, 1991) and Alho (1990) are provided in Program MARK, and all of these models are incorporated into the robust design (Kendall et al. 1995, 1997; Kendall and Nichols 1995) and robust-design multistrata (Hestbeck et al. 1991, Brownie et al. 1993) data types. Model selection is performed with AICc (Burnham and Anderson 2002) and model averaging (Burnham and Anderson 2002) is available in Program MARK to provide estimates of N with standard error that reflect model selection uncertainty.     

Reaching National Kyoto Targets in Germany and Sustainable Development

Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a Kyoto Forever scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the polluter pays principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.     

CHEMICAL REACTIONS SIMULATED BY GROUND-WATER-QUALITY MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Recent literature concerning the modeling of chemical reactions during transport in ground water is examined with emphasis on sorption reactions. The theory of transport and reactions in porous media has been well documented. Numerous equations have been developed from this theory, to provide both continuous and sequential or multistep models, with the water phase considered for both mobile and immobile phases. Chemical reactions can be either equilibrium or non-equilibrium, and can be quantified in linear or non-linear mathematical forms. Non-equilibrium reactions can be separated into kinetic and diffusional rate-limiting mechanisms. Solutions to the equations are available by either analytical expressions or numerical techniques. Saturated and unsaturated batch, column, and field studies are discussed with one-dimensional, laboratory-column experiments predominating. A summary t able is presented that references the various kinds of models studied and their applications in predicting chemical concentrations in ground waters.