气候变化与人类活动对陆地水储量的影响

陆地水储量(TWS)是气候变化的重要指示,研究TWS有助于理解气候变化是如何影响水资源的循环。本文用GRACE重力卫星数据与气象资料恢复了2002—2016年我国陆地水储量的时空分布变化,运用M-K趋势分析判断陆地水储量与气候数据的趋势,并将具有显著趋势的地域划分为10个关键区域,其中:松花江流域、长江中下游流域、珠江流域、三江源自然保护区及青藏高原中部TWS趋于增加(2.76—7.14 mm?a~(-1)),而华北平原、黄土高原、辽河流域、天山山脉及雅鲁藏布江流域陆地水储量趋于减少(-1.47—-8.93 mm?a~(-1))。TWS与气候数据、气候环流指数的Spearman相关性的结果表明:TWS的变化主要受气候变化影响,气候变化是造成陆地水储量变化的主要因素,但在人口密集区域,人类活动对TWS的影响也不可忽视,如华北平原过度汲取地下水是造成TWS减少的重要原因。     

飞机电气线路互联系统海洋环境适应性研究

以飞机典型电气线路互联系统(ElectricalWiringInterconnectionSystem,EWIS)故障件和线缆及微动开关的南海环境暴晒试验结果为依据,研究了海洋环境下EWIS的腐蚀故障规律、腐蚀类型和形成原因、及电气性能变化规律等。结果表明,海洋环境下EWIS腐蚀失效形式多样,易导致间歇式故障频发,电气性能及屏蔽效能下降等。从适海性的角度提出了应从选材、设计、使用维护和故障数据分析利用等方面来提高EWIS的海洋环境适应性。     

安徽省冬季采暖耗能对全球气候变暖的响应

基于1971—2018年安徽省77个气象站均一化日平均温度资料,采用趋势分析等方法,研究气候变暖对冬季采暖耗能的影响。结果表明：近48年安徽省冬季显著增暖,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖期长度缩短,采暖强度显著下降。冬季温度在1989年发生突变,此后进入升温通道,因而将研究序列划分为基准时段（1971—1989年）和变暖期（1990—2018年）。相比于基准时段,变暖期内采暖期长度呈现空间一致性缩短,变化幅度自东北向西南递减,皖北北部及江淮之间东部缩短程度最大,大别山及皖南山区为全省低值区。全省采暖强度均减少,减少幅度自北向南递减。采暖节能贡献率介于3.6%~8.9%之间,高值区主要位于皖北北部、江淮之间北部和沿江东部,低值区则位于大别山及皖南两大山区。     

Hydrological Variability and Uncertainty of Lower Missouri River Basin Under Changing Climate

The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding.     

Precipitation Amount and Intensity Trends Across Southwest Saudi Arabia

This study examines precipitation accumulation and intensity trends across a region in southwest Saudi Arabia characterized by distinct seasonal weather patterns and mountainous terrain. The region is an example of an arid/semiarid area faced with maintaining sustainable water resources with a growing population. Annual and seasonal trends in precipitation amount were examined from 29 rain gages divided among four geographically unique regions from 1945/1946 to 2009. Two of the regions displayed significantly declining annual trends over the time series using a Mann‐Kendall test modified for autocorrelation (α < 0.05). Seasonal analysis revealed insignificant declining trends in at least two of the regions during each season. The largest and most consistent declining trends occurred during wintertime where all regions experienced negative trends. Several intensity metrics were examined in the study area from four additional stations containing daily data from 1985 to 2011. Intensity metrics included total precipitation, wet day count, simple intensity index, maximum daily annual rainfall, and upper/lower precipitation distribution changes. In general, no coherent trends were found among the daily stations suggesting precipitation is intensifying across the study area. The work represents the first of its size in the study area, and one of few in the region due to the lack of available long‐term data needed to properly examine precipitation changes.     

中国中强地震与天气异常探讨

从我国６．０级以上中、强地震的时空分布状态入手,选择台湾附近（北纬２０°─２５°,东经１２０°─１２３°）的中、强地震作为样本,对地震前后的５００ｈＰａ环流特征和５００ｈＰａ波谱等进行了分析,发现地震发生时产生的热能能够激发大气波谱的活跃和增幅,从而引导了地震前后冷空气的南下,进而讨论了地震爆发往往伴随强风现象的物理机制．     

半干旱-亚湿润干旱沙区樟子松根内真菌群落结构和功能时空动态特征

研究揭示呼伦贝尔沙地樟子松天然林和不同引种地(呼伦贝尔沙地、科尔沁沙地和毛乌素沙地)不同林龄(中龄林、近熟林和成熟林)人工林根内真菌群落结构和功能时空动态特征及其对环境变化(气候因子和土壤理化性质)的响应,阐明樟子松根内真菌生态功能及其与林木生长的互作关系.结果表明：(1)樟子松人工林根内真菌多样性指数均显著高于天然林(P<0.05),且毛乌素沙地人工林最高;樟子松根内真菌群落存在明显的地理分布,但林龄影响不存在显著差异(P>0.05).(2)与樟子松人工林相比,天然林外生菌根真菌比例更高(50.49%),主要包括Acephala、小菇属(Mycena)和乳牛肝菌属(Suillus);樟子松天然林主要指示菌种为Acephala,呼伦贝尔沙地人工林为肉齿菌属(Sarcodon),科尔沁沙地人工林为红菇属(Russula)和美口菌属(Calostoma),毛乌素沙地人工林为地孔菌属(Geopora)、Mallocybe和棉革菌属(Tomentella).(3)在樟子松天然林和人工林中,指示菌种主要受到有效氮、有效磷和林龄的影响,而与土壤含水量、 pH值和全氮含量相关的指示菌种数...     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

Are Wastewater Systems Adapting to Climate Change?

Wastewater (WW) systems are vulnerable to extreme precipitation events; storm‐induced WW system failures pollute the environment and put public health at risk. Despite these vulnerabilities, we know very little about how WW managers are responding to current climate risks or to future climate change. This study aims to fill this critical gap in the literature. Data from surveys and interviews were used to understand what WW managers are doing to adapt to the current climate, what facilitates those adaptations, and if they are adapting to future climate change. Findings show most WW managers (78%) are making changes to build resiliency to storms they have experienced in the past (e.g., extra fuel on site, extra staff on call, more training, better communication, adding generators, elevating components, adding capacity); most are not adapting to future climate change. Our work suggests organizational leadership, concern about future climate‐related impacts, and experiencing storm impacts drive resiliency changes while regulatory requirements drive adaptation to future climate change. Beyond advancing science, our work offers practical suggestions for building WW system resilience and for increasing WW system's consideration of future climate impacts in their resiliency building efforts.