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关于危险化学品重大危险源分级的研究 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
在重大危险源死亡半径分级法的基础上,引入经济密度和人员密度,并给出不同情况下相应的计算方法。然后以"最大危险原则"和"概率求和原则"为财产损失和人员伤亡计算的原则,以《重大危险源分级标准(征求意见稿)》中的分级标准为标准,对危险化学品重大危险源进行分级,这样进行危险源分级时,可将周边环境中可能波及到的财产损失和人员伤亡考虑进去,使得危险化学品重大危险源分级考虑的因素更加全面,分级的结果和实际情况更加吻合。本文的研究结果对危险化学品重大危险源分级具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
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根据水电工程建设过程的特点,运用现代控制理论和系统辨识小子样建模新技术以及现代统计信息技术,建立了伤亡事故预测数据模型。此模型不仅可以用于水电工程建设过程的安全预测,还可以用于危险控制的定量管理。 相似文献
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叙述了煤矿伤亡事故预测预报系统(MACF)的总体概貌。在对用户需求分析的基础上,建立了煤矿伤亡事故数据库,并重点阐述了行政区划的代码设计和基于数据库的预测预报。特别是灰色预测在煤矿伤亡事故方面的应用尚属初步探索,结果比较令人满意。 相似文献
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Sugimoto JD Labrique AB Ahmad S Rashid M Shamim AA Ullah B Klemm RD Christian P West KP 《Disasters》2011,35(2):329-345
The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women. 相似文献
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Taking the ' 6·13 ′ major gas explosion accident in Shiyan, Hubei Province, China as an example, three problems were studied in this work: (1)The determination of the volume of natural gas involved in the explosion; (2)The propagation process of shock wave inside the building and the damage evolution process of the accident-related building; (3)The overpressure and fragment injury to the person outside the building. Through the numerical simulation in ANSYS/LS-DYNA software, the volume of natural gas involved in the explosion is determined to be 10240 × 1400 × 400 cm (length × width × height) from three perspectives: the damage to the building, the distribution of overpressure inside the building, and the TNT equivalent of the explosion energy. The simulation results are in good line with the accident, which verifies the effectiveness of the scheme and the accuracy of the numerical model. Based on the reasonable filling scheme, the propagation process of shock waves inside the building, the damage evolution process of the building, and the injury ranges of overpressure and fragments outside the building are analyzed. It can be found that the propagation of shock waves in confined space is complex and variable. The explosion shock waves are first reflected and superimposed in the watercourse, resulting in pressure rise. At about 8ms, the shock waves rushed into the first-floor space of the building, and the maximum overpressure was about 0.56 MPa. At about 50 ms, the shock waves rushed into the second-floor space, and the maximum overpressure was about 0.139 MPa. The first and second-floor slabs and infilled walls were almost completely destroyed. The interior walls of the infilled walls are mainly collapsed, and the exterior walls are ejection around the building as the center. The peak displacement and peak velocity of the interior walls of each floor are about 15% of the exterior walls. The fragments which cause fragment injury mainly come from the retaining wall above the watercourse, the maximum velocity is about 89 m/s, and the maximum displacement is 8.9 m. The safety distance of fragment injury is about 8.8 m, while the safety distance of overpressure injury is about 4.6 m. The lethal distance of fragment injury is greater than that of overpressure injury. Compared with the distance between different damage levels of overpressure injury, the difference in fragment injury is small. Therefore, the safety assessment at the engineering level only needs to consider the safety distance of fragment injury. This study can provide suggestions for evaluating the damage of natural gas cloud explosions in confined spaces and is helpful for accident investigation and safety protection. 相似文献
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不同时刻地震直接人员伤亡人数的预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在建筑物单体震害预测的基础上,从人与建筑物的相对关系出发,以建筑物容人时间分布曲线和当量人数为指标,建立了预测模型;并以大连经济技术开发区为例,给出了未来地震中昼夜平均人员伤亡和不同时刻人员恨的预测结果。 相似文献
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灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的评估 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
于庆东 《防灾减灾工程学报》2004,24(2):214-218
根据灾害造成的人员伤亡的特点和灾害损失评估的目的 ,提出了评估灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的基本原则 ,即系统化评估原则、从整个国家和社会的角度出发进行评估的原则、基于灾害后果的评估原则、“有无对比”的原则、货币计量与非货币计量相结合以货币计量为主的原则、不考虑沉没成本的原则和基于未来获利能力的原则。在给出灾害造成的人员伤亡的数量及其分布状况的假设后 ,应用人力资源价值理论 ,提出了评估灾害造成的人员伤亡价值损失的方法和模型。为采用统一价值尺度评估灾害损失提供了基础 ,也使得灾害损失评估理论与方法体系更趋于完善。 相似文献