基于Petri网的城市突发事件应急联动救援系统性能分析

随着我国城市化进程的加速 ,城市规模的日益扩大 ,城市需要及时有效地应对各种突发事件 ,满足城市居民对公共安全的需求。近年来 ,我国政府已开始在部分城市建设应急联动系统来处理可能发生的各种突发事件。笔者引入Petri网 ,对我国典型的城市重大突发事件应急联动系统的应急性能进行分析 ,初步建立城市重大事件应急联动系统的性能分析的Petri网模型。对Petri网模型更加深入的研究 ,将在后续课题中进一步开展。     

Do bumble bee queens choose nest sites to maximize foraging rate? Testing models of nest site selection

We proposed “foundress-max” hypothesis that a bumble bee foundress chooses her nest site to maximize her energy intake rate from nectar. To examine the hypothesis, we estimated the maximum energy intake rate at each site in the study area and compared the distribution of the maximum energy intake rates with those of actual nest sites. We also calculated rank correlations of the maximum energy intake rate with the number of nest-searching foundresses at 54 sites. The nest locations supported the foundress-max hypothesis, but the number of nest-searching foundresses did not. This could be attributed to the density of food sites: many food sites may attract many foundresses. Therefore, we subsequently proposed “foundress-sum” hypothesis that a foundress chooses her nest site to maximize the sum of energy intake rates. The nest locations supported the foundress-max hypothesis more than the foundress-sum hypothesis. A profitable food site would affect foundresses’ nest site selection.     

基于模糊Petri网的交通事故致因建模分析

针对目前我国道路交通事故多发的现状,以模糊Petri网为工具,以对道路交通安全有重大影响的关键因素为基础,模拟给出其因果关系,建立了基于模糊Petri网的道路交通事故致因分析模型,设计最长路径算法分析模型中某个致因要素导致交通事故发生的可信度。最长路径上的致因要素即为最易引起交通事故的主要因素。案例分析表明,这个模型能够体现各因素之间的逻辑关系,达到了通过数量指标分析道路交通事故主要原因的目的。     

遥测网络系统的抗干扰与设计

讨论了遥测网络系统的原理与设计；介绍了以可编程序控制器（ＰＬＣ）为核心的城市大气质量遥测系统的抗干扰问题；分析了网络系统的实现方法。     

基于Petri网与OPMSE的屠宰行业排放限值仿真

通过文献查询及现场调研,对清河流域屠宰行业产生污水的各指标浓度(BOD5、COD、NH3-N)进行统计,得出排放污水中各污染物指标的浓度值范围。通过OPMSE的仿真计算,得出排放污水经过BAT处理后,污染物浓度正态分布均值在90%、95%、99%置信水平下的置信区间。在置信水平为99%时,屠宰行业的COD置信区间为(43.31,52.86),BOD5置信区间为(20.83,23.78),NH3-N置信区间为(6.83,8.13)。同时,依据仿真计算结果还得出,处理后污染物浓度的极小值和极大值,屠宰行业的最佳出水各指标浓度为ρ(COD)为17.34 mg/L,ρ(BOD5)为14.18 mg/L,ρ(NH3-N)为3.09 mg/L,最差出水各指标浓度为ρ(COD)为97.32 mg/L,ρ(BOD5)为39.66 mg/L,ρ(NH3-N)为13.29 mg/L。将仿真结果与现有排放标准对比,拟定屠宰行业的污染物直接排放限值为ρ(COD)为60 mg/L,ρ(BOD5)为25 mg/L,ρ(NH3-N)为10 mg/L。     

基于Petri网的750kV变电站故障恢复

对750 kV变电站可能发生的常见故障进行详细分类,并据此建立故障恢复推理模型,以便发生故障时能及时快速恢复供电。通过分析750 k V变电站拓扑结构,采用故障分类和基于Petri网建模的方法,将所有可能发生的常见故障分为母线、线路及变压器3类。变电站发生故障时,先根据变电站故障诊断结果,再从故障点隔离到恢复非故障失电区域并建立Petri网模型。故障恢复主要对开关进行操作,因此首先建立开关打开和关断的基本Petri网恢复模块,接着从变压器运行方式及裕量情况给出变压器故障恢复的Petri网模型,然后讨论母线和线路故障时不同情况下的故障恢复Petri网模型,最后根据模型推理过程中点火的变迁,将隔离故障点和恢复供电的断路器记录下来,按照Petri网运行的顺序即可给出最终的恢复方案。通过对750 k V变电站各类复杂故障的建模和推理及由此给出的恢复方案,能够及时给出恢复的操作顺序,方便运行人员快速检修。最后通过HPSim软件对代表性故障进行仿真运行,验证该方法正确、可行且及时。     

Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario.     

Syrphids as landscape bioindicators in Italian agroecosystems

The aim of the work was to study the syrphid fauna in rural landscapes and to evaluate the quality of environment by means of the faunistic data collected. Sampling was carried out by Malaise traps and yellow sticky traps, baited with different kinds of glue. Malaise traps proved to be the most efficient monitoring system. Despite the greater efficiency, the Malaise trap failed to collect some species and in a few cases the number of species collected only by yellow trap was high. Among the three categories of landscape complexity, classified by measuring the linear development of hedgerows around the sites, the highest number of species was recorded in sites belonging to “high” complexity. In spite of this general trend, the landscape-complexity criterion showed some contradictory results, because “low” complexity habitats had higher numbers of species than “intermediate” ones. Among vegetation types, “hedgerow and abundant grass and flower strips” collected the most species. A standard method for Syrphidae, that calculates a “biodiversity maintenance function”, Syrph the Net, was used to evaluate sites.     

呼伦贝尔典型草原区植物生长旺季地上干物质量估算的地面光谱模型

为促进地面高光谱遥感在草地估产方面的应用,采用美国ASD公司生产的Fieldspec 3光谱仪,于2009年7月下旬在呼伦贝尔典型草原区进行了高光谱遥感地面观测试验. 运用单变量线性、非线性和逐步回归分析方法,建立植物生长旺季归一化植被指数(NDVI)与地上干物质量(ANPP)间的地面光谱模型. 结果表明,基于判定系数(R2)判断,线性函数和指数函数拟合较理想,R2分别达到0.729 5和0.720 3. 误差分析表明,标准误差(SE)最大的是对数函数,其SE为24.82 g/m2;最小的是幂函数,其SE为22.63 g/m2. 平均误差系数(MEC)最大的是对数函数,其MEC为0.249 7;指数函数最小,其MEC为0.193 2. 综合分析后,选用一元线性回归方程作为呼伦贝尔典型草原区的植物生长旺季最优地面光谱模型:ANPP406.08NDVI-101.64,其R2为0.729 5,SE为23.61 g/m2,MEC为0.220　9,P<0.001.