华北1743-1744年与1876-1878年旱灾中的政府粮食调度与社会后果对比

以《清实录》等清代档案文献为主要历史信息源,挑选华北地区清代盛期(1743-1744年)和晚期(1876-1878年)分别发生的两次典型旱灾,对灾害气候背景和灾情、政府措施(特别是政府主导的跨区粮食调度)、社会后果(人口迁徙和动乱)等信息进行整理并分别对比,可以发现1743-1744年旱灾期间政府的粮食调度体现出粮食数量大、来源渠道广、调度效率高等鲜明特点,并取得了良好的社会效果;而1876-1878年旱灾则反之,粮食数量及来源有限,且转运效率极低,由此引发严重社会后果。这种转变,发生在主要余粮产区农业凋敝、南北粮食运道(大运河)阻断、漕运及仓储制度衰败的时代背景之下,重灾区空间分布带来的交通通达性差异,也在客观上影响了粮食调度的效率。     

我国气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系完备性研究

在全球变暖的背景下,气象灾害发生的频次增多且造成的影响不断加重,气象灾害的管理已成为国家公共安全管理的重要内容,气象灾害标准体系建设的完备性,对于气象灾害管理有着十分重要的意义。按照气象灾害标准体系框架,搜集国家气象相关权威部门标准委员会门户网站公布的气象灾害相关标准库,并分析了气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系在专业、门类和层次三个维度的完备性。最终指出了气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系存在的不足,进而给出了减灾救灾标准体系建设的政策建议。     

环境风险评价中有毒物质泄漏预测结果的应用

在常温下呈气态的有毒有害物质可能发生泄漏事故的环境风险评价中,其预测结果的应用可引入有毒有害物质的毒理学资料,确立对预测结果适合的评估指标,对泄漏事故影响范围内的危害程度进一步分级明确,有针对性地提出合理可行的应急减缓措施,为项目的风险管理工作提供了科学的依据.     

Ground influence on high-pressure methane jets: Practical tools for risk assessment

High-pressure gaseous methane release is a relevant safety-related problem mainly in the Oil and Gas industry. As well documented, the reason for these safety concerns is connected with the severe consequences of the domino effect subsequent to the possible ignition. In risk assessment activities, estimation of the damage area is of primary importance in order to draw up proper safety guidelines. To do this, loss prevention specialists use quick and well-established numerical tools (i.e., integral models) in their daily activities. However, the presence of an obstacle in the flow field of the jet (e.g., the ground) is a more probable situation to deal with. It is known that integral models fail in this kind of scenario, leading to unreliable predictions. Hence, the present work investigates how an industrial ground surface influences the LFL cloud size of a horizontal high-pressure methane jet. An innovative quick procedure is proposed allowing to determine the height below which the ground begins to influence the LFL cloud size and the extent of such influence. Therefore, this procedure allows practitioners to establish when integral models can be used and when not to use them, and also provides a simple and reliable alternative to their use. These analytical instruments are derived from an extensive computational fluid dynamics analysis performed with Ansys Fluent 19.0.     

Flow and flame visualization near the upper flammability limits of methane/air and propane/air mixtures at elevated pressures

In this study, direct visualization of flow and flame from the ignition of methane/air and propane/air mixtures near the UFL at elevated pressures of up to 2.0 MPa were obtained with a test cell comprised of double-sided plexiglass and a containment vessel with double-sided glass. These visualizations allowed direct observations of ignition and flame near UFL at elevated pressures. Two distinctive features were observed in ignition at elevated pressures that differ from those under ambient pressure: the hot igniter formed a convective plume, rather than a convection cell; and the flame initiated from the top of the test cell and propagated downwards, rather than directly from the igniter. Both these distinctive features are characteristics of convection at high Rayleigh number accompanied with increased gas density at elevated pressures. Our study also shows that visualization of the formation of planar flame provides the most objective criterion for defining flammability limits at elevated pressures.     

多种气压条件下甲醇池火燃烧特性的实验研究

通过自行研制的低氧低压模拟试验箱开展了小尺寸甲醇油池火燃烧实验,研究了在多种气压条件(40kpa、45kpa、55kpa、65kpa、75kpa、85kpa、100kpa)下的油池火燃烧特性参数的差异。实验发现,一定情况下,甲醇燃烧速率随着气压的升高而升高,呈现幂函数关系;火焰高度和火焰面积从低压开始先随着气压值的升高而升高,当达到一定的气压值后就会随着气压值的升高而降低;随着气压升高,羽流中心温度下降的幅度变缓。     

论《诗经》的防灾救灾思想

我国是一个自然灾害发生比较频繁的国家,而中华民族防灾救灾的思想意识也是源远流长、极为丰富的。这些思想构成了中国优秀传统文化的重要组成部分。《诗经》中也有很多与防灾救灾思想相关的内容,如在天命禳弭、仓储备荒、疏导灌溉等方面都给我们留下一笔宝贵财富,对于我们今后的防灾救灾也将产生积极的启迪。     

The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes

This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster‐affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle‐size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision‐making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean.     

LDR and hydroforming limit for deep drawing of AA5754 aluminum sheet

The goal of the research was to determine the limits and conditions in which the sheet hydroforming process provides a significant advantage over stamping in deep drawing of AA5754 aluminum sheets. Specifically, the maximum draw depth achievable by stamping, warm stamping (WF), sheet hydroforming (SHF), and sheet thermo-hydroforming (THF) of AA5754 aluminum alloy were quantified through experimental and computational modeling. A limited number of forming experiments were conducted with AA5754 aluminum sheets using a cylindrical punch and counteracting fluid at different temperatures and pressures. Several parameters, such as force–displacement, hydroforming pressure and temperature, and the maximum draw depth prior to wrinkling or tearing were measured during the forming process to make comparisons with simulations. The computational study included the simulation of stamping, WF, SHF and THF of AA5754 aluminum sheet with the LS-Dyna code, and the Barlat 2000-2d yield function with temperature-dependent coefficients. To predict the onset of wrinkling and tearing, the numerically generated, temperature-dependent forming limit diagrams (FLDs) based on the Barlat 2000-2d yield function were used. It was found that compared with stamping, SHF and THF can achieve more than 100% deeper draw depths with AA5754 aluminum sheet. The stamping simulations were used also to calculate the optimum blank size and die corner radii for the limiting draw ratio (LDR). The LDR was found to be very sensitive to the punch and die corner radii used in the experiments, which represent the curvature of character lines in an actual part. The LDR for AA5754 aluminum sheet was found to be 1.33 and 2.21 for sharp and round die corner radii, respectively. Overall, it was concluded that SHF is most ideal for deep drawing of aluminum sheets with sharp radii features. With the additional drawability provided by SHF, the automotive industry would be able to make difficult-to-form aluminum parts that cannot be stamped without product concessions such as increasing the die radii.     

粉尘爆炸泄压面积计算及影响因素分析

随着涉粉行业各类企业数量的增长,以及粉尘爆炸产生的巨大危害,企业对粉尘泄爆、防爆越来越重视。在粉尘泄爆方面,泄爆装置的泄放面积影响最大泄爆压力,国内外不同标准的计算方法也有区别,因此针对不同标准的计算方法做出了比较并举例计算说明,为泄爆装置尺寸的选择提供理论依据。