论灾害经济研究中的风险分析方法

灾害风险是自然风险与社会经济风险皆有、纯风险与投机风险兼顾的一种多层次多侧面的风险类型。并据此从风险分析的角度，对有关的灾害经济行为进行了理论上的探讨。着重从宏观意义上对防灾经济行为予以剖析；而对于救灾经济行为则从灾害发生的危急性、群发性以及灾后恢复三个方面进行了相关的风险分析。     

瓦斯爆炸阻隔爆装置失效原因的实验研究

通过对水平管道内瓦斯爆炸的火焰结构及压力结构的实验研究 ,分析了瓦斯爆炸阻隔爆装置的失效原因。结果表明 ,瓦斯爆炸火焰是沿着管道的底部向前传播的 ,火焰长度较长 ,并具有较高的内聚力。阻隔爆装置的失效原因是由于其动作延迟时间与火焰到达装置位置所需的时间不一致 ,使释放出的抑制剂不能有效地覆盖整个火焰区 ,造成具有较高内聚力的火焰 ,在其后部巨大爆炸产物膨胀压力的推动下继续向前传播     

Coastal protected area management and multi-tiered governance: the Cape Cod Model

Policy tools that allow for the coordination of various authorities at different levels of government are important for coastal protected areas. Frequently, multiple authorities manage these areas with varied and sometimes conflicting goals. This study examines a regulatory model implemented on the Cape Cod National Seashore in the US that uses federally-approved zoning to regulate private uses for protection of natural coastal resources. Local authorities implement the zoning which is designed to support national resource protection goals making this a prime model of cross-level governance for conservation. I use case study analysis to evaluate the program’s effectiveness by focusing on implementation and compliance in the context of multi-jurisdictional (i.e., national to local) relations. The analysis and subsequent discussion highlight the difficulties associated with implementation of intergovernmental mandates. Also, theoretical perspectives on compliance give insights about the implementation challenges of this model. The model’s limitations have implications for policymakers considering similar schemes implemented by split and hierarchical authorities with different, and possibly conflicting, coastal management goals.

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

Italy is an earthquake‐prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009—the primary case study in this evaluation—seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years.     

The need to look beyond the production and provision of relief seed: experiences from southern Sudan

Free distribution of seeds in selected areas of southern Sudan has been widespread as a way of increasing food security. Field research in areas targeted for seed relief found that farmer seed systems continue to meet the crop and varietal needs of farmers even following the 1998 famine. Donor investments in seed multiplication of improved sorghum have not been sustained due to a lack of effective demand for the improved seed beyond that created by the relief agencies. The article argues that rather than imposing outside solutions, whether through seed provisioning or seed production enterprises, greater attention needs to be given to building on the strengths of existing farmer systems and designing interventions to alleviate the weaknesses. The case is made to support dynamically the process of farmer experimentation through the informed introduction of new crops and varieties that can potentially reinforce the strength and diversity of local cropping systems.     

Restoring sanitation services after an earthquake: field experience in Bam, Iran

A powerful earthquake hit the city of Bam in southeast Iran on 26 December 2003. In its aftermath, a number of international relief agencies, including Oxfam, assisted in providing emergency sanitation services. Oxfam's programme consisted of constructing and repairing toilets and showers in villages located outside of the city. In contrast with other organisations, Oxfam opted for brick-work structures, using local materials and human resources rather than prefabricated cubicles. The choice illustrates the dilemmas faced by agencies involved in emergency sanitation: responding to needs in a manner consistent with international standards and offering assistance in a timely fashion while involving beneficiaries. Following a preliminary survey, Oxfam concluded that the provision of showers and latrines, in addition to utilisation of local materials and human resources, was essential for ensuring well-being, empowerment and dignity among members of the affected population, thereby maximising the benefits.     

International NGOs and the role of network centrality in humanitarian aid operations: a case study of coordination during the 2000 Mozambique floods

In February 2000, Mozambique suffered its worst flooding in almost 50 years: 699 people died and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Over 49 countries and 30 international non-governmental organisations provided humanitarian assistance. Coordination of disaster assistance is critical for effective humanitarian aid operations, but limited attention has been directed toward evaluating the system-wide structure of inter-organisational coordination during humanitarian operations. Network analysis methods were used to examine the structure of inter-organisational relations among 65 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) involved in the flood operations in Mozambique. Centrality scores were used to estimate NGO-specific potential for aid coordination and tested against NGO beneficiary numbers. The average number of relief- and recovery-period beneficiaries was significantly greater for NGOs with high relative to low centrality scores (p < 0.05). This report addresses the significance of these findings in the context of the Mozambican 2000 floods and the type of data required to evaluate system-wide coordination.     

先秦时期农业减灾救荒思想研究

我国先秦时期形成了较为系统的农业减灾救荒思想,它包含灾前预防思想、农业减灾思想和灾后救荒思想三大部分。中国古代的减灾和救荒两大思想体系由此成为有机整体,这在三代(夏、商、周时期)和春秋战国时期农业生产的转型发展过程中产生了积极的促进作用。研究这一时期的农业减灾救荒思想对于后世的防灾减灾极具借鉴意义。     

9-21台湾M_S7.6大地震的启示

1999 年9 月21 日台湾南投发生MS7 .6 强烈地震,造成生命财产的严重损失。两岸同胞骨肉相连,我们在深切关注这次地震的同时,也从中得到启示:1- 沿此次发震断层车笼埔断层一线构筑物毁坏极为严重,由此可见,城市建设和居民安家应尽力避开活断层。2- 必须加强构筑物的抗震设防,各类建设项目必须有规范的抗震设计、专业的施工监理和严格的验收程式。3- 抗震救灾工作中应注重高科技成份的投入和救灾队伍的训练有素。     

民初我国救灾的资金问题述评

民国初年我国救灾的资金来源主要有包括地方和中央的两级政府的财政拨款,和社会各界的赈济款项,特别是后者,活动十分活跃,社会影响巨大,在民初救灾体系中具有举足轻重的地位、作用。此外,外国政府、华侨等也参与了救灾活动,提供了资金,遇有灾歉积极援助。资金的分配一般是分批次进行,数额是以各地灾情的轻重程度来权衡分配,分配方案一般由各地区省府主管官员根据资金总数制定。民初我国救灾的资金筹措方式多样化,以及分配的批次手法,对今天我国救灾有一定借鉴意义。