上海市防灾救灾系统管理存在的问题及对策

对上海当前防灾救灾系统管理中存在的问题进行了分析，并且提出了相应的对策，对上海及其它城市的防灾救灾系统管理体系的改进与完善有一定的借鉴作用。     

Revised emergency vacuum relief device sizing for atmospheric distillation systems

Conventional vacuum relief methodologies are usually protective responses; that is, they accomplish their purpose by substitution of an inert gas (usually nitrogen) for the process gases removed by an external vacuum source, or for condensable vapour collapsed by an internal process mechanism (e.g. condensation). While this approach is theoretically possible for all potential vacuum scenarios, it becomes practically impossible to implement for installations where a rapid phase change can impart near-instantaneous system pressure reductions. The procedure outlined in this paper takes a preventive approach: eliminate the source of vacuum generation before the safe lower system pressure limit is reached. For distillation and other refluxing systems, this vacuum source is usually the main overhead condenser, which is designed to collapse large volumes of condensable vapour. To eliminate the vacuum source requires elimination of the system's ability to rapidly condense vapour. This goal is accomplished by introduction of inert gas directly into the condensing system to ‘blanket’ the heat transfer surface and stop condensation. The procedure determines the rate, amount and location for introduction of inert gas. The required design data include: (i) system starting pressure, (ii) maximum allowable system vacuum, (iii) volume of the condensing system, and (iv) normal system condensing rate. By determining the rate at which the condenser removes vapour volume from the system, and designing an inert gas delivery system to meet or exceed this rate, the vacuum generation potential of the system is effectively eliminated using a much smaller quantity of inert gas than with the more traditional volume substitution methods.     

城市防灾救灾组织机构设置的研究

本文首先阐明了合理的组织机构在城市防灾工作中的作用，然后通过对典型城市防灾救灾组织机构现状和问题的分析，提出防灾救灾组织机构设置的原则，构造了城市防灾救灾组织机构的改进型矩阵模式，并分析了该模式的特点和实施步骤。     

城市地震应急救援措施探讨

在分析城市地震灾害及典型震例的基础上,探讨了城市地震应急救援的问题.     

中国救灾物资代储点优化布局研究

优化国家救灾物资代储点布局的目标是要提高我国的自然灾害应急响应能力和救灾时效性.构建了自然灾害发生过程中交通应急响应能力的评价指标和模型,包括陆地综合通行能力指数、空运通达时间和陆地交通通达时间,编制了相应的数字地图.结果表明:全国陆地交通综合通行能力在地域上是不平衡的,东南地区远远大于西北地区,其中以环渤海、长三角、珠三角地区最大;从通达时间来看,要以现有的10个代储点为中心来覆盖全国,空运至少需要7h,陆地交通运输至少需要48h,这使得许多地区的交通应急响应能力因运输时间过长而降低.最后,提出了国家救灾物资代储点的优化布局方案,建议新增6个代储点,以此实现灾中空运3h,全国各地均可送达救灾物资;陆运6h,全国近90%的地区可送达救灾物资.     

Lessons in logistics from Somalia

By February 1981 the refugee relief operation in Somalia was close to breakdown. The Governor of Somalia and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) contracted the agency CARE to manage the logistics of the operation. By August 1981 over 99 % of food received at Mogadishu was reaching the camps. Here we describe this apparent success, and attempt to diagnose the contributing factors. Chief among these are dynamic leadership, 'systems' management, adaptability of personnel, the use of professional Indian food monitors in the camps, and the support given by the Government. The chief qualification on the success of the operation has been the continued dependency on expatriate expertise.
General conclusions are offered relating to the management of logistics in relief operations. The most important conclusion is that there is a prime need for logistics to be centralized in a single organization at the start of major emergencies. We point to the current inadequacy in an international relief system which fails to ensure this, and suggest that a new or existing part of the United Nations family be given a 'brief for in-country logistics' to become a UN Emergency Logistics Office.     

对城市规划中抗震与应急救灾问题的思考

根据国内外震害教训和抗震经验，从震灾防御和应急救灾诸方面讨论了城市规划建设时应注意的问题及应采取的措施。     

Experimental study on the characteristics of the strong boiling induced by pressure relief at the top of vertical vessels

In this study, the strong boiling process of a superheated liquid induced by pressure relief at the top of a vertical vessel was experimentally investigated. Through monitoring the response of the pressure at the top of the vessel and the full field morphology of the two-phase flow, the correlations between the pressure rise and the two-phase flow as well as the trend of the characteristic pressure values under different discharge areas and filling rates were analyzed. The results indicated that the expansion of the mist-like two-phase flow, which was generated due to the strong boiling and bubble collapse, was the direct reason for the two pressure rebounds at the top of the vessel. And under the effect of the intermittent expansion of the two-phase flow, the pressure rising rate in the second rebound stage fluctuated. When the discharge area changed, the characteristic pressure values presented different relativeness under different filling rates. In addition, the average pressure rising rate during the second pressure rebound process presented an exponential growth with the increase of the discharge area, and the exponent coefficient decreased with the increase of the liquid filling rate.     

Prediction of BLEVE mechanical energy by implementation of artificial neural network

In the event of a BLEVE, the overpressure wave can cause important effects over a certain area. Several thermodynamic assumptions have been proposed as the basis for developing methodologies to predict both the mechanical energy associated to such a wave and the peak overpressure. According to a recent comparative analysis, methods based on real gas behavior and adiabatic irreversible expansion assumptions can give a good estimation of this energy. In this communication, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been implemented to predict the BLEVE mechanical energy for the case of propane and butane. Temperature and vessel filling degree at failure have been considered as input parameters (plus vessel volume), and the BLEVE blast energy has been estimated as output data by the ANN model. A Bayesian Regularization algorithm was chosen as the three-layer backpropagation training algorithm. Based on the neurons optimization process, the number of neurons at the hidden layer was five in the case of propane and four in the case of butane. The transfer function applied in this layer was a sigmoid, because it had an easy and straightforward differentiation for using in the backpropagation algorithm. For the output layer, the number of neurons had to be one in both cases, and the transfer function was purelin (linear). The model performance has been compared with experimental values, proving that the mechanical energy of a BLEVE explosion can be adequately predicted with the Artificial Neural Network approach.     

高压水射流卸压防治复合动力灾害机理及应用

为研究高压水射流卸压防治复合动力灾害的可行性,以余吾煤业高瓦斯矿井东翼采区内首采N2105工作面工程地质条件为背景,通过现场调研、理论分析、数值模拟和工业性试验等方法,对N2105进风平巷两帮采取高压水射流卸压防治效果进行了研究。结果表明:对巷帮煤体采取高压水射流卸压技术,煤体在高压水射流的冲击力和扰动应力波共同作用下瞬间发生破坏;巷帮侧支承应力分布曲线由原有的“单高峰值”转变为“内低外高双峰值”,受以上支承应力变化的影响,底板煤岩体内难以形成范围较大且连续的塑性应力状态区;现场电磁辐射和矿压监测结果表明高压水射流技术对煤层卸压增透效果显著,降低了巷道发生复合动力灾害的可能性。研究结果可为同类矿井复合动力灾害的防治提供参考和借鉴。