电网应急预案知识图谱构建方法与应用*

为提高电网应急预案知识的检索效率以及电网事故的处置效率,提出电网应急预案知识图谱的构建方法。首先,以电网自然灾害和大面积停电事件应急预案为数据源,分析电网应急预案知识内容体系框架;其次,采用基于规则与基于深度学习的知识抽取方式对应急预案进行知识抽取,并基于Neo4j图数据库对电网应急预案知识进行存储和可视化展示;最后,以某市大面积停电事件应急响应为例,分析电网应急预案知识图谱在实际案例中的有效性。研究结果表明:所构建电网应急预案知识图谱可对电网突发事故进行辅助决策,从而缩短应急决策时间,提高电网事故的应急处置效率。     

基于中美10所高校的应急管理核心知识体系的解释结构模型研究

应急管理涉及多学科、多领域,明确其核心知识体系可以为应急管理相关学科融合和发展提供基础。本文收集了中美两国10所高校15个本科专业225门专业课程,构建解释结构模型进行研究。结果显示：应急管理核心知识体系包括8大类：应急类、防灾减灾类、公共服务和社会管理类、安全生产类、国家安全类、法律类、公共卫生类和综合类。这8大类又分为18个小类,应急类包括为理论、技术方法和应用;防灾减灾类包括理论、过程和单灾种防范;公共服务和社会管理类包括理论与应用;安全生产类包括安全、健康和环境;国家安全类包括国土安全、恐怖主义和国际关系;公共卫生类包括心理和医疗救助;而法律类重在应急相关法律,综合类则表现为多个领域相结合。该体系的构建可以为应急管理相关学科研究提供知识基础,促进各学科领域在应急研究方面融合发展。     

Plant indicator status and implications for natural disaster management in both developed communities and indigenous communities

Only a few rigorous studies have attempted to focus on the topic of plant indicators in relation to natural disasters, although recently an increasing number of people have realized its significance. In an effort to aid disaster management, this article studied and aimed to improve the status of plant indicators in predicting or signaling natural disasters. Using a qualitative content analysis, the plant indicators’ uncertain status and certain status are systematically compared using specific plants, developed community efforts, indigenous community traditions, and characteristics of natural disaster management. A key tenet is that all stakeholders must change plant indicators’ uncertain status to certain status by comprehensively elaborating on the integration between developed communities and indigenous communities, plant indicators as a research agenda, the inclusion of plant indicators in disaster management policy and local plans, and education and training.     

长三角知识创新能力与城市化、工业化进程的协调关系研究

通过构建知识创新能力与城市化、工业化进程的评价指标体系,对长三角地区2000-2011年25个地级以上城市的知识创新能力指数及城市化与工业化进程系数进行测算,并利用协调度模型综合分析评价了知识创新能力与城市化、工业化进程的协调关系.结果显示：①知识创新能力与城市化整体协调度优于其与工业化的协调度;②知识创新能力与城市化协调度逐步磨合到相对理想状态;③知识创新能力与工业化协调度呈现出先上升后下降又上升的较大波动性.     

Sustainable consumption: the effects of knowledge,cultural values,environmental advertising,and demographics

As a result of human lifestyles and unsustainable consumption patterns, the environment continues to deteriorate and thus inhibit sustainable development. In order to curb this situation and promote a sustainable economy, one of the solution is to reduce conventional products consumption and shift to green products. Over the past 20 years, marketing managers keenly seek to understand the green market; however, inadequate information on how to promote consumers’ green behavioral intentions is slowing the growth of green markets and becomes a barrier for firms when developing segments and communicating strategies for effective promotion of green products in countries like Malaysia where the trend is fairly new. Therefore, this study attempts to examine the impact of environmental knowledge, cultural values, and environmental advertising and determine the moderating effect of income level, education level, and gender on consumers’ green purchase intentions. A survey was administered, and a total of 405 valid questionnaires were obtained. Structural equation modeling technique was used to evaluate the causal model by using SmartPLS 2.0 software. The finding results suggest that cultural values and environmental advertising are the main influences in building green purchase intentions, while environmental knowledge is not significantly related. The results also indicate that education level and gender have a significant positive moderation effect while income did not. This suggests that green purchase intentions’ motivational factors are greater among highly educated individuals, with females in particular. The discussions and implications of these findings are further elaborated.     

Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Practice for Edible Wild Plants: Biodiversity Use by the Rarámuri,in the Sirerra Tarahumara,Mexico

The Rarámuri who live in the Sierra Tarahumara of Chihuahua State, Mexico have developed local knowledge and harvesting strategies for edible wild plants that have the effect of conserving the biodiversity of their forest ecosystem. This paper presents the results of ethnobotanical research undertaken in the community of Basìhuare in the Sierra Tarahumara, to provide details on some practical aspects of the Raráamuri worldview regarding interconnections between people and their environment. This traditional philosophy forms the basis for the use of edible wild plants and the harvesting strategies practiced in Basìhuare, such as selective harvesting, environmental modification and domestication. These activities provide the opportunity for harvesters to monitor the landscape and the plant resources that occur on the land, as well as present a setting for the communication and exchange of traditional ecological knowledge. However, Rarámuri harvesting practices are under stress because of increased external pressures from commercial timber extraction and other development. We discuss the state of traditional ecological knowledge and its transmission in the context of development activities in the region. The key to sustainability in the Sierra Tarahumara may be the maintenance of traditional management practices for edible wild plants, and other nontimber forest products, that lead to the conservation of biodiversity by creating patchiness and renewing the plant cover on the land.     

Sharing and preparing: cross-institutional,food security-based knowledge in Canada

This study proposes a framework for the collection and management of knowledge related to food security in Canada. This paper has several goals. First, the paper summarizes the current state of food security knowledge in Canada. Second, the paper presents data from an experiment where food security issues were discussed by stakeholders at two fora, the first of which was held in western Canada and the second held in eastern Canada. Finally, based on the notes taken during and feedback received after the fora, this paper suggests a framework for organizing and managing the multiple perspectives and complex types of knowledge about food security and sustainable development from a Canadian context. Two fora were held in Canada where food security issues were presented and discussed by multiple stakeholders. Most provinces in Canada were represented in at least one of the two sessions. Sessions were designed to be informative and interactive; agenda were designed to take advantage of the needs and experiences of multiple stakeholders in both western and eastern regions of Canada. To develop the framework, the sessions were also designed to assess the types of issues and knowledge about food security in Canada. Evidence presented from this experiment supports arguments that food security work must be approached in a collaborative manner, no matter the approach or discipline. Data from fora held in western and eastern regions of Canada indicate a number of specific ways in which those along the food continuum have the desire to share knowledge and enter into partnerships to work toward secure and sustainable food systems. Data also indicate how academia and institutions of higher learning might play a key role in sharing food security-based knowledge. The data from this study suggest that academia could play a leadership role in collecting and sharing information about food security-based knowledge from all disciplinary approaches that could help collaborative in addressing the complexity of food security challenges. The framework developed in this paper could provide the guide for organizing knowledge about food security and sustainable development. The framework could be used as a map to guide understanding about the different ways in which food security can be approached and understood; this could help reduce tensions among partners in projects where a wide variety of experiences are attempting to work collaboratively. The two food security fora brought together stakeholders with specialized knowledge about food security in a Canadian context. The analysis of data arising from the fora permitted unique insights to arise about the nature of knowledge by region. The data in this study also allowed us to build a framework for food security knowledge from these regional knowledge bases. This paper suggests that academia actively take a leadership role and openly share knowledge about food security. Open sharing of knowledge will help collaborates in dealing with complex food security issues understand in-depth other approaches; this sharing may help to make explicit the tensions that arise during collaborative work.     

Utility optimization strategy of safety management capability of coal mine - A case study of JCIA

This article describes optimization strategy of SMCCM from perspective of utility of coal miner with the method of empirical research. Four elements of SMCCM are put forward which consist of “employee safety knowledge”, “equipment safety knowledge”, “environment safety knowledge” and “rule safety knowledge”. Eight elements of utility are put forward which consist of “benefit satisfaction”, “promotion satisfaction”, “job satisfaction”, “enterprise satisfaction”, “management satisfaction”, “colleague satisfaction”, “relationship satisfaction” and “communication satisfaction”. Then hypotheses of influence path between SMCCM and utility are proposed. JCIA is chosen as the sample to carry out survey, which questionnaire is designed based on the likert six-point scale to avoid the middle tendency of the test samples. Data analysis is done from following angles: analysis of the structure and utility of test samples, variables analysis of SMCCM and utility, model analysis of interaction between SMCCM and utility. And then results are obtained from the analysis of elements of SMCCM and elements of utility. Conclusions: first, “rule safety knowledge” should be strengthened above all; second, “job satisfaction” should be paid more attention to; third, coal miner’s benefit should be concerned specially.     

Handling and updating uncertain information in bow-tie analysis

Bow-tie analysis is a fairly new concept in risk assessment that can describe the relationships among different risk control parameters, such as causes, hazards and consequences to mitigate the likelihood of occurrence of unwanted events in an industrial system. It also facilitates the performance of quantitative risk analysis for an unwanted event providing a detailed investigation starting from basic causes to final consequences. The credibility of quantitative evaluation of the bow-tie is still a major concern since uncertainty, due to limited or missing data, often restricts the performance of analysis. The utilization of expert knowledge often provides an alternative for such a situation. However, it comes at the cost of possible uncertainties related to incompleteness (partial ignorance), imprecision (subjectivity), and lack of consensus (if multiple expert judgments are used). Further, if the bow-tie analysis is not flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge or evidence, it may undermine the purpose of risk assessment.Fuzzy set and evidence theory are capable of characterizing the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge. To minimize the overall uncertainty, fusing the knowledge of multiple experts and updating prior knowledge with new evidence are equally important in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the uncertainties, aggregate knowledge and update prior knowledge or evidence, if new data become available for the bow-tie analysis. A case study comprising a bow-tie for a typical offshore process facility has also been developed to describe the utility of this methodology in an industrial environment.     

Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.