胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟

以胶带输送机运输事故树的计算机模拟过程为例 ,介绍了对事故树可靠性进行计算机模拟的原理、算法以及程序运行步骤 ,编制了模拟程序。用笔者提出的理论、方法及模拟程序 ,对平顶山煤业集团一矿胶带输送机运输事故进行了事故树分析与求解 ,同时将模拟程序运行结果与最小割集法求得的理论值进行了对比 ,计算结果误差小 ,所得结论准确可靠 ,为类似事故的模拟分析提供了一种新的方法和途径     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

千岛湖水体氮的垂向分布特征及来源解析

选取千岛湖水深0.2,5,10,20,30和40m处水样进行分析,利用氮氧同位素和稳定同位素模型（SIAR）研究千岛湖水体氮（N）的垂向分布特征,分析水体N的来源并计算各N源的贡献率.结果表明,硝酸盐（NO₃^-）和溶解性有机氮（DON）是千岛湖水体总溶解氮（TDN）的主要形式,分别占溶解态N的57.9%和39.7%.千岛湖水体δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-的平均值分别为4.5‰和4.3‰.上层水体（0~10m）中,硝化作用和浮游植物的同化作用共同控制水体N的形态组成和氮氧同位素值（δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-）的变化.中层水体（10~30m）中,硝化作用是主要的生物地球化学过程,使得水体NO₃^-含量增加而δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-值减小.底层水体（30~40m）受到硝化作用、底泥N释放和反硝化作用的共同影响.化肥是千岛湖水体NO₃^-的最主要来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为51.9%和30.6%.新安江上游的农业面源污染使得S1处化肥贡献率远高于S2.土壤N是仅次于化肥的第二大水体NO₃^-来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为17.8%和27.8%.此外,底泥对底层水体NO₃^-的贡献不可忽视.     

鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素时空分布格局及其与理化和生物因子的关系

本文分别于2012年4月(春季)、8月(夏季)、10月(秋季)和2013年1月(冬季)在鄱阳湖进行了4次野外调查和样品采集,采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱仪(UPLC-MS/MS)对鄱阳湖水柱中常见的3种微囊藻毒素(MC-RR、MC-YR和MCLR)的质量浓度进行定量分析,探寻了微囊藻毒素(microcystins,MCs)质量浓度的时空变化规律及其与湖泊环境理化因子和生物因子之间的关系.结果表明,MC-RR是鄱阳湖MCs的主要毒素种类.胞内微囊藻毒素(intracellular MCs,IMCs)与微囊藻生物量(r=0.47,P0.01)、颤藻生物量(r=0.68,P0.01)、蓝藻生物量(r=0.56,P0.01)、Chl-a(r=0.28,P0.01)之间均具有显著的正相关关系,但与鱼腥藻生物量之间没有明显的相关关系(P0.05),这说明微囊藻和颤藻是鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素的主要产毒藻类.IMCs与水温(r=0.51,P0.01)、透明度(r=0.69,P0.01)、Fe(r=0.43,P0.01)和Zn(r=0.43,P0.01)之间均呈现显著的正相关关系,与TN(r=-0.44,P0.01)、TP(r=-0.29,P0.01)、NO-2-N(r=-0.28,P0.05)、NH+4-N(r=-0.33,P0.05)、Ca(r=-0.34,P0.01)和Mg(r=-0.35,P0.05)均呈现显著的负相关关系,但与pH、PO3-4-P、NO-3-N、电导率、高锰酸盐指数、Cu离子之间的相关关系不显著(P0.05),这说明光照强度(透明度反映)、氮、磷、水温是控制鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素产生的重要因子,金属离子Ca、Mg、Fe、Zn在一定程度上能影响微囊藻毒素的产生.鄱阳湖IMCs和胞外微囊藻毒素(extracellular MCs,EMCs)呈现相似的季节变化趋势,即夏季最高,其次为秋季,冬季和春季较低.鄱阳湖IMCs的空间分布整体上呈现东部湖汊群、松门山周围以及蚌湖和蚌湖进入鄱阳湖的入湖口较高,其它区域较低的趋势,而EMCs的高值区位于松门山周围和蚌湖及其入湖口.     

重庆市煤矸山周边农产品镉健康风险评价及土壤环境基准值推导

以重庆市煤矸山周边农用地土壤和农产品（玉米和水稻）为研究对象,测定土壤和农产品（玉米和水稻）中Cd含量,评估摄入农产品（玉米和水稻）对人体的潜在健康风险,并基于物种敏感性分布法（SSD）推导土壤环境基准值.结果表明,重庆煤矸山周边旱地土壤Cd含量超风险筛选值的点位占55.8%,水田土壤Cd含量超风险筛选值的点位占31.6%,土壤Cd以较高生态危害和高生态危害为主,分别占47.4%和36.8%.玉米Cd含量超标点位占4.4%,水稻Cd含量均未超标.健康风险评价表明因食用玉米和水稻摄入Cd的非致癌健康风险可忽略,食用玉米摄入Cd存在可耐受致癌健康风险,食用水稻摄入Cd存在不可耐受致癌健康风险,且玉米和水稻Cd含量敏感度最高.SSD推导出煤矸山周边旱地土壤在pH≤5.5、5.57.5时Cd的环境基准值分别为0.491、0.382、0.376和0.588 mg ·kg^-1,水田土壤Cd的环境基准值为0.807 mg ·kg^-1.水田土壤和旱地土壤pH≤7.5时,现行土壤标准（GB 15618-2018）相对偏严;旱地土壤pH>7.5时,现行土壤标准（GB 15618-2018）相对偏宽松.应加强煤矸山周边土壤Cd污染防治和农产品安全利用研究,并对土壤Cd环境基准值进行适当调整.     

On the critique of Beck’s view on risk and risk analysis

Ulrich Beck’s stand on risk and risk analysis has been challenged by many researchers. In this paper we look closer into some of the arguments used, with a main focus on the fundamental analysis carried out by Campbell and Currie. These two authors argue that Beck’s criticisms of the theory and practice of risk analysis are groundless: Beck’s understanding of what risk is, is badly flawed, and he misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. However, the analysis of Campbell and Currie is based on a set of premises, for example that risk is a function of probability and harm, and that risk really exists and one can be wrong about risk. Although such ideas are common, they can be challenged, and in the literature a number of alternative perspectives have been suggested. The purpose of the present paper is to study Beck’s stand on risk analysis and the related critique of Campbell and Currie and others, in view of some of these alternative perspectives on risk. To what extent is the critique then justified? The paper concludes that the case raised against Beck’s view is still strong and relevant, but has to be nuanced with respect to some important issues, for example concerning the distinction between belief and truth when it comes to risk. Allowing for spacious interpretations of some of Beck’s theses, the paper provides strengthened support for Beck’s view on these points.     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

Cycle synchrony and probability of conception in female hamadryas baboonsPapio hamadryas

We investigated the factors affecting conception in a captive population ofPapio hamadryas. We collected data on reproductive states from 16 females over 12 years. Probability of conception was related to the outcome of the immediately preceding pregnancy and the fate of the preceding offspring. After abortions or when an infant survived more than 6 months, a female needed more cycles to conceive than when an infant died within the first 6 months post partum. The degree of estrus synchrony within, but not between, one-male units influenced the probability of conception. Females experiencing conceptive estrus showed less synchrony than those experiencing nonconceptive estrus. The number of females simultaneously in estrus within a one-male unit was negatively correlated with the probability of conception. Within our captive population, group size and male and female age had no influence on the probability of conception. The results indicate that sperm may be a limited resource in the one-male reproductive units of hamadryas baboons. Female-female competition for conception may exist and should influence the demography of one-male units.     

长春市不同土地利用生境土壤昆虫幼虫群落组成与生态分布

对长春市郊区天然次生林、市内公园风景林、郊区防护林和农田等土地利用生境进行土壤昆虫幼虫调查,研究土地利用差异对土壤昆虫幼虫群落特征的影响。研究区共捕获土壤昆虫幼虫35科411只,其中鞘翅目幼虫14科319只,双翅目幼虫13科64只,鳞翅目幼虫8科28只。研究结果表明:不同土地利用生境土壤昆虫幼虫群落组成与生态分布存在差异,防护林和农田土壤昆虫幼虫的类群数和个体密度显著减少;除农田外,其他生境土壤昆虫幼虫群落个体密度和类群数主要集中分布在0～5cm土壤层,生境凋落物的移除对土壤昆虫幼虫群落组成影响不明显;此外,鞘翅目、双翅目和鳞翅目幼虫对土地利用和植被类型变化的响应也不同。     

Window Sensitivity Functions for Line Transect Sampling

L and width 2w, then by a selection of viewing window is meant a choice of w, with the intent being to search for optimal viewing windows, with the goal in mind of improving variances of estimators of population density, reducing sampling effort, while maintaining the property of unbiasedness. The notions of increasing window sensitivity (IWS) and decreasing window sensitivity (DWS) are introduced, and a method of deriving confidence intervals is discussed.