A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

Generalized analytical expressions for safety instrumented systems' performance measures: PFDavg and PFH

Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) constitute an indispensable element in the process of risk reduction for almost all of nowadays' industrial facilities. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a set of generalized and simplified analytical expressions for two commonly employed metrics to assess the performance of SIS in terms of safety integrity, namely: the Average Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD_avg) and the Probability of Dangerous Failure per Hour (PFH). In addition to the capability to treat any K-out-of-N architecture, the proposed formulas can smoothly take into account the contributions of Partial Stroke Testing (PST) and Common Cause Failures (CCF). The validity of the suggested analytical expressions is ensured through various comparisons that are carried out at different stages of their construction.     

A new look at release event frequencies

Within the context of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), the two main constituents used to describe petrochemical risks are, and have always been, consequence and probability. The consequences of hazardous material accidents are easy to apprehend – if a hazard is realized it can injure people or cause fatalities, damage equipment or other assets, or cause environmental damage. Frequencies for these consequences, on the other hand, are not as easy to understand. Process safety professionals develop event frequencies by evaluating historical data and calculating incident rates, which represent, in the QRA context, how often a release of a hazardous material has occurred. Incident rates are further modified by probabilities for various hole sizes, release orientations, weather conditions, ignition timing, and other factors, to arrive at unique event probabilities that are applied in the QRA. This paper describes the development of incident rates from historical database information for various equipment types, as well as defining a methodology for assigning hole size probabilities from the same data, such that a hole size distribution can be assigned within each QRA study. The combination of total incident rates and a hole size distribution relationship can then serve as a foundation within the frequency side of many QRA studies.     

海河流域沉积物中典型重金属的生态风险评估及验证

沉积物重金属污染及其生态风险评估日益受到关注,而沉积物质量基准是开展生态风险评估的有力工具。本研究通过物种敏感度分布法(species sensitivity distributions, SSD)和急慢性毒性比(acute to chronic ratios, ACR)推导了镍、铜、锌、镉和铅的沉积物质量基准(sediment quality guideline, SQG)。在获得合理的重金属沉积物慢性毒性数据的基础上,采用S-Logistic模型拟合镍、铜、镉和铅的慢性SSD曲线,采用S-Gompertz模型拟合锌的慢性SSD曲线。得到镍、铜、锌、镉和铅沉积物质量基准低值(sediment quality guideline low value, SQGlow)分别为18.6、69.9、107、1.26和38.4 mg·kg~(-1),应用ACRs,得到相应的沉积物质量基准高值(sediment quality guideline high value, SQGhigh)分别为167、226、556、10.1和384 mg·kg~(-1)。与加拿大和澳大利亚重金属沉积物基准值具有一定的可比性。选择花翅摇蚊(Chironomus kiiensis)、伸展摇蚊(Chironomus tentans)和霍甫水丝蚓(Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri)3种底栖生物作为受试生物,验证基准值对海河流域沉积物重金属毒性的预测能力。结果表明,利用SQGs预测沉积物毒性的总准确率为76.2%,3种底栖生物验证准确率从高至低为:花翅摇蚊>伸展摇蚊>霍甫水丝蚓。     

应用物种敏感性分布评估微(纳米)塑料对水生生物的生态风险

水环境中的微(纳米)塑料对水生生物具有潜在的危害。为了评估微(纳米)塑料对水生生物的毒性效应及生态风险,本研究在广泛查阅并分析微(纳米)塑料相关毒理学研究数据的基础上,利用物种敏感性分布(Species Sensitivity Distributions,SSD)方法对其中5门10科11种水生生物的急性毒理数据进行曲线拟合;计算对应的5%危害浓度(the hazardous concentration for 5%of the species, HC_5)和潜在影响比例(potential affected fractions, PAF);计算了相应的急性生态效应阀值(predicted no effect concentration, PNEC_(acute)),并比较了各类水生生物对微(纳米)塑料的敏感性及其所受生态风险。结果表明,目前已有数据中微(纳米)塑料对费氏弧菌(Vibrio fischeri)的生态风险最大,对朱氏四爿藻(Tetraselmis chuii)的生态风险最小;基于Reweibull模型对水生生物数据所推导的PNEC_(acute)为0.185μg·L~(-1),约为当前微(纳米)塑料在水体环境中浓度的30%。利用SSD来预测微(纳米)塑料不同暴露浓度下对水生生物的PAF,发现当微(纳米)塑料暴露浓度小于10μg·L~(-1)时,水生生物所受的影响在可接受范围内;当暴露浓度达到1 000μg·L~(-1)时,将有26%的物种受到微(纳米)塑料的危害。此外,利用Rurrlioz软件估算了世界典型淡水与海水水域表层水体中微塑料对水生生物的PAF值,发现其PAF预测值都为0;将各水域微塑料浓度与急性生态效应阀值PNEC_(acute)比较后发现,除太湖外,其他水体环境中微塑料浓度都低于PNEC_(acute),说明如果只考虑微塑料本身的影响,目前世界典型水域表层水中微塑料对水生生物的危害程度大部分都在可接受的范围之内。     

Probability law of concentration in plumes dispersing in an urban area

The relationships between various normalized higher-order concentration moments in plumes dispersing in a built-up (urban) environment have been investigated using a large concentration data set obtained in a boundary-layer water channel. This data set consists of measurements of plume dispersion in a number of idealized obstacle arrays (e.g., cubical and non-cubical obstacles in aligned and staggered arrangements with uniform, random and alternating heights). A remarkably robust feature of all the concentration data was the observed collapse of the third- and fourth-order normalized concentration moments on the second-order normalized concentration moment. The data are shown to collapse to a series of universal curves (independent of the geometry of the obstacle array) and these curves were found to be identical to those observed previously for open-terrain plumes. The results imply that the probability law of concentration in a plume dispersing in either a built-up environment or open terrain has a universal form that can be specified by at most two independent parameters. The universal functions representing the relationships between the normalized concentration moments were found to be well modeled (approximated) using a two-parameter clipped-gamma probability law for the concentration. Finally, the clipped-gamma distribution was found to be in very good conformance with the measured probability distribution of concentration for plumes dispersing in a built-up environment.     

玄武湖沉积物中重金属污染的潜在生物毒性风险评价

采用ICP－MS仪测定了玄武湖沉积物中Zn、Cd、Ni的含量,并应用沉积物质量基准法(SQGs)和地累积指数法（Igeo）对重金属的潜在生物毒性进行分析。结果表明：玄武湖沉积物中Zn、Cd和Ni的含量分别为7526~17911、517~898和4776~14728 mg/kg,分别是为南京土壤环境背景值的108~291、5170~8980和133~411倍,表明Zn的污染程度较轻,Cd和Ni的污染较重,且人为活动对重金属含量有重要影响。沉积物中重金属的分布具有明显的区域特征,Zn、Cd、Ni浓度的最大均值均出现于东南湖(SE L)的沉积物中。利用地累积指数法和生物数据库基准对玄武湖表层沉积物进行生物毒性风险评价得出的结论与此相似,潜在生物毒性风险的顺序依次为Cd＞Ni＞Zn。从采样点的布设来看,东南湖的潜在生物毒性风险最严重。     

2000—2012年深圳湾及邻近沿岸水域溶解无机磷的来源和时空分布

依据2000—2012年每月1次的调查资料,简要描述和讨论了深圳湾及邻近沿岸水域中溶解无机磷(DIP)质量浓度的时空分布,并结合盐度(S)和溶解无机氮实测数据探讨DIP的来源和氮:磷(N∶P)原子比.结果表明,深圳湾和珠江口东南沿岸中DIP质量浓度分别为(0.184±0.167)mg·L-1和(0.025±0.013)mg·L-1.在深圳湾,由于受到周边陆源排放的影响,DIP质量浓度在丰水期较低,枯水期较高.在珠江口东南沿岸,由于受到多个环境因子的制约,DIP质量浓度在夏秋季较高,冬春季较低.2000—2012年珠江口东南沿岸DIP质量浓度的年际变化趋势基本上保持平稳;深圳湾DIP质量浓度在2000—2004年呈上升趋势,从0.173 mg·L-1上升至0.236 mg·L-1,2005—2012年则呈下降趋势,从0.221mg·L-1下降至0.120 mg·L-1;2000—2012年深圳湾和珠江口东南沿岸N∶P原子比的年际变化均呈上升趋势,分别从31.8和41.5上升至44.9和60.1.研究海区中的DIP具有"保守性",主要来自陆源排放.依二元混合质量平衡模式估算的珠江口东南沿岸DIP的陆源质量分数约为63.0%,而深圳湾的都87%.研究海区中N∶P原子比高达48.3±36.9,暗示磷是初级生产的潜在限制因子.     

重金属对淡水生物生态风险的物种敏感性分布评估

应用生态风险评价中的物种敏感性分布(SSD)方法构建了6种常见重金属元素(Cd,Cu,Hg,Pb,Zn和Mn)对淡水生物的SSD曲线.在此基础上,计算了6种重金属对不同生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),比较了脊椎动物和无脊椎动物(包括鱼类,甲壳类等)对6种重金属的敏感性以及不同重金属的急性生态风险(简称生态风险),并且评价了3个典型水体中常见重金属的联合生态风险.结果表明,6种重金属元素的HC5值的大小顺序为Cu相似文献