滑坡失稳破坏概率及可靠度研究

本文讨论了滑坡失稳破坏概率及可靠度分析方法，并对清江水布垭坝址大岩淌滑坡进行了计算，所得结论基本符合实际。     

A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

Generalized analytical expressions for safety instrumented systems' performance measures: PFDavg and PFH

Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) constitute an indispensable element in the process of risk reduction for almost all of nowadays' industrial facilities. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a set of generalized and simplified analytical expressions for two commonly employed metrics to assess the performance of SIS in terms of safety integrity, namely: the Average Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD_avg) and the Probability of Dangerous Failure per Hour (PFH). In addition to the capability to treat any K-out-of-N architecture, the proposed formulas can smoothly take into account the contributions of Partial Stroke Testing (PST) and Common Cause Failures (CCF). The validity of the suggested analytical expressions is ensured through various comparisons that are carried out at different stages of their construction.     

Resolving the variability of CDOM fluorescence to differentiate the sources and fate of DOM in Lake Taihu and its tributaries

Taihu Basin is the most developed area in China, which economic development has resulted in pollutants being produced and discharged into rivers and the lake. Lake Taihu is located in the center of the basin, which is characterized by a complex network of rivers and channels. To assess the sources and fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface waters, we determined the components and abundance of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) within Lake Taihu and 66 of its tributaries, and 22 sites along transects from two main rivers. In Lake Taihu, there was a relative less spatial variation in CDOM absorption a_CDOM(355) with a mean of 2.46 ± 0.69 m⁻¹compared to the mean of 3.36 ± 1.77 m⁻¹ in the rivers. Two autochthonous tryptophan-like components (C1 and C5), two humic-like components (C2 and C3), and one autochthonous tyrosine-like component (C4) were identified using the parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) model. The C2 and C3 had a direct relationship with a_CDOM(355), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The separation of lake samples from river samples, on both axes of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), showed the difference in DOM fluorophores between these various environments. Components C1 and C5 concurrently showed positive factor 1 loadings, while C4 was close to the negative factor 1 axis. Components C2 and C3 showed positive second factor loadings. The major contribution of autochthonous tryptophan-like components to lake samples is due to the autochthonous production of CDOM in the lake ecosystems. The results also showed that the differences in geology and associated land use control CDOM dynamics, such as the high levels of CDOM with terrestrial characteristics in the northwestern upstream rivers and low levels of CDOM with increased microbial characteristics in the southwestern upstream rivers. Most of river samples from the downstream regions in the eastern and southeastern plains had a similar relative abundance of humic-like fluorescence, with less of the tryptophan-like and more of the tyrosine-like contributions than did samples from upstream regions.     

哈尔滨市采暖与非采暖期大气颗粒物污染特性研究

为了研究采暖对哈尔滨市大气颗粒物环境特征的影响,分别在采暖前、采暖期和采暖后采集TSP、PM10和PM2.5.分析了3种粒径颗粒物在采暖期和非采暖期的浓度变化特征以及粒径分布特征,并做了颗粒物的化学成分分析,包括20种无机元素和两种碳成分.结果表明:TSP和PM10在12月、1月、3月和4月均超标,而在非采暖期均达到国...     

基于系统分析原理对工业企业总体地震灾害的预测

以设备单体在一定地震裂度下的破坏概率为基础 ,应用相关的概率论知识和系统分析方法 ,根据系统的网络功能图 ,得到系统总体的震害预测。在此基础上 ,对系统的薄弱环节进行分析 ,从而为系统的抗震加固提供科学、合理的依据。此方法的建立使我国企业总体的震害预测和抗震加固变得科学、方便、可行。     

重金属对淡水生物生态风险的物种敏感性分布评估

应用生态风险评价中的物种敏感性分布(SSD)方法构建了6种常见重金属元素(Cd,Cu,Hg,Pb,Zn和Mn)对淡水生物的SSD曲线.在此基础上,计算了6种重金属对不同生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),比较了脊椎动物和无脊椎动物(包括鱼类,甲壳类等)对6种重金属的敏感性以及不同重金属的急性生态风险(简称生态风险),并且评价了3个典型水体中常见重金属的联合生态风险.结果表明,6种重金属元素的HC5值的大小顺序为Cu相似文献   

重庆市绵雨的分类与指标及其时空分布规律

按时间(季节)差异将重庆市绵雨划分为：春绵雨、初夏绵雨、盛夏绵雨、秋绵雨和冬绵雨5种。提出了重庆市绵雨的单站指标、区域指标和分区指标，进而全面分析了各季节绵雨的发生情况，揭示了重庆绵雨的时空分布规律。从季节来看，以秋绵雨最为突出，发生频率达77．9％，初夏次之，为59．6％，其它季节在30％左右；重绵雨和严重绵雨主要发生在秋季和初夏；其区域分布特征是，春季以东南部较多，盛夏分布差异相对较小，初夏、秋季和冬季都是西部和东南部多，东北部少。分别划分了各季节绵雨的分布类型变化趋势。     

湖南省水旱灾害及其时空分布

利用公元２世纪以来的水旱的灾害资料，分析了湖南省水旱灾害的成因及其时空分布，并重点研究了１９８０年以来的演变趋势，从领导，生态宣传，绿色工程，人口控制和水利投入五个方面提出防治对策。     

场地液化危害的概率分析

为使场地液化危害程度的估计建立在以概率论为基础的可靠性分析之上,本文提出二种估计场地液化危害程度的概率方法,二种方法分别采用不同的途径处理地震和岩土的不确定性,不仅分析了一点液化的概率,而且提供了估计整个土层住状液化概率的方法,文中最后通过算例简要讨论了液化概率分析结果的工程应用。