2013年1月南京强霾时期大气细颗粒物污染特征分析

2013年1月,南京经历了一次重大持续性灰霾污染过程。利用在线气体及气溶胶监测系统和扫描电迁移率颗粒物粒径谱仪,通过研究颗粒物质量浓度,主要水溶性无机离子浓度,不同时段颗粒物的数谱分布及其日变化分布,二次气溶胶及黑碳与能见度的相关性等多个方面,较为全面地分析了重霾时期大气细颗粒物的污染特征。     

COMPARISON OF DESIGN STORM CONCEPTS USING CONTINUOUS SIMULATION WITH SHORT DURATION STORMS1

ABSTRACT: The objectives of this paper were to test the ability of various design storm distributions to simulate the actual rainfall pattern and to compare the runoff rates used in the design of stormwater management devices in the State of Florida using continuous simulation approach. The analyses were performed for four gaged stations to evaluate the applicability of design storm distributions in different parts of the State of Florida. The approach used in this study compared the peak runoff rates from design storms based on the various distributions to those that would result from actual rainfall events. A series of continuous runoff rates were developed through the use of actual fifteen-minute recorded rainfall data, Horton type infiltration decay and recovery rate, and a continuous simulation model. The runoff rates were analyzed using frequency distributions to obtain peak runoff rates associated with different return periods based on the assumption that the continuous simulation approach closely predicts the actual runoff rates from the gaged stations. The results show that the behavior of the design storm distributions varies for different watershed characteristics in different parts of the state. The study also suggests that in general the Florida Department of Transportation and the Suwanne River Water Management (FDOT/ SRWMD) distributions appeared to agree with the continuous simulation results.     

火灾中闭式喷头响应时间的概率分布特性研究

喷淋系统中闭式喷头响应时间受火灾增长因子、径向安装距离和喷头响应时间指数等因素的影响。通过对喷头响应时间的模拟数据的统计分析,建立了包含火灾增长因子、径向距离和喷头响应时间指数等参数的喷头响应时间模型。考虑火灾增长因子和径向距离的随机性,获得了喷头响应时间的概率分布特性。研究结果表明,径向距离和火灾增长因子对喷头响应时间的分布特性影响显著。随着火灾增长因子的增大和径向距离的缩小,喷头在较短时间内响应的概率增大。随着径向距离的缩小,喷头响应时间指数对喷头响应时间分布的影响变小。研究可为优化喷头布置和评估喷头响应的有效性提供分析工具。     

2000~2011年深圳湾及邻近水域颗粒有机物的来源和时空分布

依据2000~2011年每月一次的调查资料,简要描述和讨论了深圳湾及邻近水域中颗粒有机物(POM)质量浓度的时空分布,并结合盐度和叶绿素a (Chl a)实测数据探讨POM的来源和滞留时间.结果表明深圳湾的POM质量浓度和陆源质量分数分别约为4.2mg/L,79%,而伶仃洋东部沿岸的分别约为1.9mg/L,42%.深圳湾和伶仃洋东部沿岸中现存浮游植物颗粒有机物(PPOM):Chl a比率分别约为92,54g/g,由此估算的PPOM质量浓度分别为0.8,0.2mg/L左右.依据浮游植物生产力和累计海源POM估算的POM滞留时间在深圳湾中为1~5d,而在伶仃洋东部沿岸中约为10d.研究期间伶仃洋东部沿岸POM质量浓度的年际变化略呈上升趋势,从1.7mg/L上升至2.0mg/L;深圳湾POM质量浓度在2000~2005年呈上升趋势,从3.0mg/L上升至5.5mg/L,在2006~2011年则呈下降趋势,从5.4mg/L下降至3.0mg/L.     

太湖水体多环芳烃生态风险的空间分布

以太湖梅梁湾、贡湖湾和胥口湾水体多环芳烃(PAHs)含量水平为基础,通过物种敏感度分布曲线计算三湖湾水体PAHs对水生生物的潜在危害比例,以此表征PAHs对太湖三湖湾水体的生态风险,并对其空间分布特征进行讨论.结果表明:PAHs对太湖三湖湾水体的生态风险大小依次是:Flua(1.1641%),Phe(0.2206%),Pyr(0.1633%),BaP(0.0175%),Ant(0.0021%),Flu(0.0005%), Ace(0.0000%),∑7PAH的联合生态风险(3.0954%)大于单体PAHs的生态风险. Ant, BaP和∑7PAH对梅梁湾(0.0209%,0.1237%和4.1018%)的生态风险显著高于贡湖湾(0.0023%,0.0085%,3.0414%)和胥口湾(0.0002%,0.0015%,2.3899%)(P0.05);Flu和Phe对胥口湾(0.0004%,0.1553%)的生态风险显著低于梅梁湾(0.0011%,0.2999%)和贡湖湾(0.0009%,0.2681%)(P0.05);Pyr和Flua对梅梁湾(0.3268%,1.7156%),贡湖湾(0.1697%,1.2386%)和胥口湾(0.1044%,0.8339%)水生生物的生态风险具有显著性差异(P<0.05).空间分布表明:梅梁湾西北部PAHs的生态风险最大,贡湖湾北部次之,胥口湾最小.     

An Analysis of the Wind Energy Potential of Elazig,Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the wind energy potential of Elazig is statistically analyzed based on hourly measured wind speed data over the five-year period from 1998 to 2002. The probability density distributions are derived from cumulative distribution functions. Two probability density functions are fitted to the measured probability distribution on a yearly basis. The wind energy potential of the location is studied based on the Weibull and Rayleigh distributions. It was found that the numerical values of both Weibull parameters (k and c) for Elazig vary over a wide range. The yearly values of k range from 1.653 to 1.878 with an average value of 1.819, while those of c are in the range of 2.757–2.994 m/s with an average value of 2.824 m/s. In addition, yearly mean wind speed and mean power density of Elazig is found as 2.79 m/s and 38.76 W/m², respectively. The wind speed distributions are represented by Weibull distribution and also by Rayleigh distribution, with a special case of the Weibull distribution for k = 2. As a result, the Rayleigh distribution is found to be suitable to represent the actual probability of wind speed data for Elazig.     

Confronting socially generated uncertainty in adaptive management

As more and more organizations with responsibility for natural resource management adopt adaptive management as the rubric in which they wish to operate, it becomes increasingly important to consider the sources of uncertainty inherent in their endeavors. Without recognizing that uncertainty originates both in the natural world and in human undertakings, efforts to manage adaptively at the least will prove frustrating and at the worst will prove damaging to the very natural resources that are the management targets. There will be more surprises and those surprises potentially may prove at the very least unwanted and at the worst devastating. We illustrate how acknowledging uncertainty associated with the natural world is necessary but not sufficient to avoid surprise using case studies of efforts to manage three wildlife species; Hector's Dolphins, American Alligators and Pallid Sturgeon. Three characteristics of indeterminism are salient to all of them; non-stationarity, irreducibility and an inability to define objective probabilities. As an antidote, we recommend employing a holistic treatment of indeterminism, that includes recognizing that uncertainty originates in ecological systems and in how people perceive, interact and decide about the natural world of which they are integral players.     

Inverse calculation approaches for source determination in hazardous chemical releases

Source determination is vital in decision making and emergency planning involving hazardous chemical releases. This work was concentrated on inverse calculation approaches for source determination as well as current trends and future perspectives. In this paper, these different approaches are reviewed by dividing them into two categories: probability modeling methods and optimization modeling methods. The traits of these approaches are comparatively analyzed. Then it is shown how these approaches behave when applied to practical cases, and their feasibility, applicability, stability, and limitation in determining the location and strength are presented. It is argued that when experimenting with potential terrorist attacks involving hazardous chemical releases, observation points should be around the main line of the downwind direction when the source is known; while the uniform distribution of observation points is an efficient solution for unknown incidents. Probability modeling methods are demonstrated to be insufficient during emergency responses due to their lacking of enough prior information of unknown parameters, while optimization modeling methods are efficient and become a new trend in source determination. Findings reflect an urgent need for the development of high-accuracy detectors and further research of data transmission techniques in order to ensure the validity of these approaches.