接管高应变区缺陷的安全评定概率方法研究

随着计算机技术飞速发展,Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法在压力容器可靠性分析中得到广泛应用。但对于小概率情形,利用直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法进行失效概率计算,费用较高。为此,笔者提出了几种新的失效概率近似计算方法,并以压力容器接管为例,对其断裂失效概率进行了计算,同时还和直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法的计算数值进行了比较。结果表明,新的失效概率近似计算方法具有精度高、节省机时的优点。     

Probabilistic distribution coefficients (Kds) in freshwater for radioisotopes of Ag,Am, Ba,Be, Ce,Co, Cs,I, Mn,Pu, Ra,Ru, Sb,Sr and Th – implications for uncertainty analysis of models simulating the transport of radionuclides in rivers

The objective of this study was to provide operational probability density functions (PDFs) for distribution coefficients (K_ds) in freshwater, representing the partition of radionuclides between the particulate and the dissolved phases respectively. Accordingly, the K_d variability should be considered in uncertainty analysis of transport and risk assessment models. The construction of PDFs for 8 elements (Ag, Am, Co, Cs, I, Mn, Pu and Sr) was established according to the procedure already tested in Durrieu et al. [2006. A weighted bootstrap method for the determination of probability density functions of freshwater distribution coefficients (K_ds) of Co, Cs, Sr and I radioisotopes. Chemosphere 65 (8), 1308–1320]: (i) construction of a comprehensive database where K_ds values obtained under various environments and parametric conditions were collected; (ii) scoring procedure to account for the ‘quality’ of each datapoint (according to several criteria such as the presentation of data (e.g. raw data vs mean with or without replicates), contact time, pH, solid-to-liquid ratio, expert judgement) in the construction of the PDF; (iii) weighted bootstrapping procedure to build the PDFs, in order to give more importance to the most relevant datapoints. Two types of PDFs were constructed: (i) non-conditional, usable when no knowledge about the site of concern is available; (ii) conditional PDFs corresponding to a limited range of parameters such as pH or contact time; conditional PDFs can thus be used when some parametric information is known on the site under study. For 7 other radionuclides (Ba, Be, Ce, Ra, Ru, Sb and Th), a simplified procedure was adopted because of the scarcity of data: only non-conditional PDFs were built, without incorporating a scoring procedure.     

Number concentration and size distributions of submicron particles in Jinan urban area： Characteristics in summer and winter

The aerosol number concentration and size distribution were measured with the newly developed Wide-range Particle Spectrometer in summer and winter of 2006 at the urban site of Jinan City.Here reported the characteristics of fine particles of the different observation seasons.Relative high number concentrations for the particles in the diameter range of 10-500 nm were observed in both seasons.It was found that the dominant number distributed in particle diameter smaller than 100 nm and the percentage over the number concentration of all air particles is much higher than what has been measured in other urban sites over the world.The number mean diameter in summer was much smaller than in winter,strongly suggesting the different origin of ultrafine particles in different seasons.That is, particles in ultrafine mode mainly came from nucleation and new particle formation in summer while from traffic emission in winter. The diurnal variation also supported this point.Number concentration in the diameter range of 10-200 nm got their peak values at noontime,well correlated with the mixing ratio of SO_2 and the intensity of solar radiation in summer.While in winter,those in the same diameter range showed the main peaks during the traffic hours happened in the morning and evening.     

Application of the health risk assessment of acetochlor in the development of water quality criteria

Acetochlor is a widely used herbicide in agricultural production. Studies have shown that acetochlor has obvious environmental hormone effects, and long-term exposure may pose a threat to human health. To quantify the hazards of acetochlor in drinking water, a health risk assessment of acetochlor was conducted in major cities of China based on the data of acetochlor residue concentrations in drinking water. The approach of the Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSD) method is used to extrapolate from animal testing data to reflect worst case human toxicity. Results show that hazard quotients related to acetochlor residues in drinking water for different age groups range from 1.94 × 10^?4 to 6.13 × 10^?4, so, there are no indication of human risk. Compared to the total estimated hazard quotient from oral intake of acetochlor, the chronic exposure imputed to acetochlor residues in drinking water in China accounts for 0.4%. This paper recommends 0.02 mg/L to be the maximum acetochlor residue concentration level in drinking water and source water criteria.     

应用物种敏感性分布评估重金属对海洋生物的生态风险

应用生态风险评价中的物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distributions,SSD)方法构建了8种常见重金属元素(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Mn、Pb、Zn)对海洋生物的SSD曲线。在此基础上计算了8种重金属对海洋生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对海洋生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),比较了海洋脊椎动物和无脊椎动物对8种重金属的敏感性以及不同重金属的急性生态风险。结果表明,重金属对甲壳类的生态风险均比鱼类大。8种重金属元素对所研究的海洋生物全部物种的HC5值的排序为Pb>Mn>Zn>Cr>Cu>Hg>Cd>As。暴露浓度小于10μg·L-1时,Cr和Hg的生态风险差异不大。在10μg·L-1的暴露浓度下,As、Cd、Cu和Hg均使全部物种中超过10%的生物受到影响。随着浓度升高,不同重金属的生态风险有不同幅度的增大,当浓度达到1000μg·L-1时,分别有82.49%、87.31%和85.90%的物种受到As、Cu和Hg的损害。不同生物的敏感性顺序会随重金属的浓度范围发生变化。     

流溪河水体有机氯农药的生态风险评价

通过检测流溪河水体18个采样点水样中的有机氯农药浓度,构建了淡水生物对有机氯农药的物种敏感性分布,并计算出各类水生生物的HC5(Hazardous Concentration for 5%the Species)值,预测了不同浓度有机氯农药对生物的潜在影响比例(Potential Affected Fraction,PAF),最后采用商值概率分布法对流溪河水体的有机氯农药进行了生态风险评价.结果表明:流溪河水体中的有机氯农药浓度在216.41~389.70 ng·L-1之间,平均值为293.02 ng·L-1;甲体六六六(α-BHC)的HC5值最高,而硫丹硫酸酯和p,p'-滴滴滴(p,p'-DDD)对全部物种的HC5值均低于0.10μg·L-1,对生态系统的影响较大;当污染物的浓度达到0.50μg·L-1时,除甲体六六六、七氯之外,其余9种有机氯农药对全部物种的PAF值均超过了5%的阈值;除硫丹Ⅱ外,其余10种有机氯农药均具有潜在的生态风险;在假定保护95%物种的情况下,硫丹硫酸酯的生态风险最高.     

鼎湖山大气颗粒物中OC与EC的浓度特征及粒径分布

为了解华南背景区域鼎湖山站碳质气溶胶的浓度水平与来源,采用DRI Model 2001A热/光碳分析仪测定了鼎湖山站大气颗粒物分级样品中的有机碳(OC)与元素碳(EC)浓度水平,并分析了碳质组分的浓度特征和粒径分布.结果表明,在PM_1.1、 PM_2.1和PM_9.0中,鼎湖山OC的平均质量浓度分别为(5.6±2.0)、(7.3±2.4)和(12.8±4.0)μg·m^-3, EC的平均质量浓度分别为(2.3±1.4)、(2.7±1.6)和(3.4±1.7)μg·m^-3. PM_1.1和PM_2.1中OC分别占PM_9.0中OC的43.8%和57.0%, EC占67.6%和79.4%. OC和EC主要富集在细粒子中. PM_1.1和PM_2.1中OC和EC在秋季最高,OC在冬季最低,EC在夏季最低. PM_9.0中OC夏季最高.鼎湖山中碳质气溶胶以OC2、 EC1、...     

非感潮河流水污染带范围的估算

在河流污染带范围随机模拟方法的基础上提出了一个附加概率意义的污染带新定义，然后利用线性回归，分别采用３种曲线拟合和１个方面拟合两种方法，对污染带的范围进行估算，结果表明，能较真实地反映河流污染带的实际情况。     

Moment and maximum likelihood estimators for Weibull distributions under length- and area-biased sampling

Many of the most popular sampling schemes used in forestry are probability proportional to size methods. These methods are also referred to as size-biased because sampling is actually from a weighted form of the underlying population distribution. Length- and area-biased sampling are special cases of size-biased sampling where the probability weighting comes from a lineal or areal function of the random variable of interest, respectively. Often, interest is in estimating a parametric probability density of the data. In forestry, the Weibull function has been used extensively for such purposes. Estimating equations for method of moments and maximum likelihood for two- and three-parameter Weibull distributions are presented. Fitting is illustrated with an example from an area-biased angle-gauge sample of standing trees in a woodlot. Finally, some specific points concerning the form of the size-biased densities are reported.     

Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.