Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

The future of global warming: will it be emissions control or environmental damages?

This paper explores the role of risk perceptions in influencing public policy related to global warming. It solves for the optimal paths for emissions, abatement and investment in pollution-eliminating research by incorporating perceived risks into public decision making. It also compares the impact of differential risk perceptions on international collaboration on carbon abatement. Key findings are that the perception of risks related to environmental damages and technological breakthroughs plays an important role in determining the level of mitigation efforts. A high level of perceived risk of environmental damages discourages investment in pollution-eliminating research as there are few benefits from eliminating pollution after damages are realized. Other options that allow for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere may still remain viable. Another key finding is that when it comes to effort sharing between nations, differential mitigation efforts are primarily caused due to the differences in abatement technology, benefits from emissions and research capabilities. However, such differences could be accentuated or mitigated depending upon the differences in risk perception of developed and developing countries.     

京津冀中部夏季大气颗粒物空间分布特征

为研究京津冀地区雾霾成因,以Y-12（运-12）飞机为大气颗粒物观测平台,对2016年夏季京津冀中部大气颗粒物污染特征进行了观测研究.结果表明,天津市颗粒物数浓度垂直分布特征为1 500 m（以下均为标准气压高度）以下呈单峰分布,1 500 m以上呈单调下降,峰值均出现在0.35~0.40 μm之间,峰值的最大值出现在900 m左右;颗粒物体积浓度谱呈三峰分布,分别在0.30~0.40、0.50~0.60和1.00~2.00 μm之间,峰值的最大值出现在450 m左右.天津市、保定市和衡水市600与2 400 m数浓度谱分布特征为单调下降和单峰分布并存;600 m表面积浓度谱呈三峰分布,分别在0.30~0.40、0.50~0.60和0.90~1.00 μm之间;2 400 m表面积浓度谱呈双峰分布,分别在0.30~0.40和0.50~0.60 μm之间;600与2 400 m体积浓度谱均呈三峰分布,分别在0.30~0.40、0.50~0.60和1.00~3.00 μm之间.天津市大气颗粒物数浓度谱峰值的最大值出现在900 m左右,说明逆温层对气溶胶累积的形成有重要影响.城市间数浓度谱峰值高低受地面颗粒物质量浓度大小影响.京津冀中部大气颗粒物表面积浓度谱在600 m呈三峰分布,在2 400 m呈双峰分布,可能是因为2 400 m空中以细粒子为主.京津冀中部大气颗粒物体积浓度谱在600与2 400 m空中均为三峰分布,而国外为双峰分布,发现粗粒子峰值粒径范围差别较大,这是由于国内PM_2.5在PM₁₀中占比较大.研究显示,京津冀中部600和1 200 m大气颗粒物多来源于山东、河南,经近地面输送;2 400 m大气颗粒物多来源于内蒙古地区,经高空和近地面两种途径输送.      

保守性污染物风险水环境容量的随机估算模式研究

本文以对数正态分布理论为基础,建立了利用矩量近似法(Moment Approximation)与数值积分法(Numeral Interal Methed)计算风险水环境容量的随机估算模式,并由此提出了水质功能标准概率分布概念。风险水环境容量随机估算模式的提出拓展了水环境容量的概念与内函,为计算风险水环境容量开辟了新的途径。     

立窑小水泥厂适用除尘方法的研究

为了提供立窑小水泥厂的适用除尘方法，作者对几个小水泥厂系统地测定了主要工序排出粉尘的粒径分级组成和相应的粉尘浓度、烟气温度和含湿量等参数；测定了重力沉降室、旋风除尘器、冲击水浴除尘器、冲击———喷雾除尘器的粒径分级除尘效率。在此基础上，将污染源和除尘器进行匹配，对各工序所宜采取的除尘方案进行科学论证，提出的方案更为切合实际。     

Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek ExperimentalWatershed: I. Long‐Term Research on Atrazine1

Lerch, R.N., E.J. Sadler, K.A. Sudduth, C. Baffaut, and N.R. Kitchen, 2010. Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: I. Long‐Term Research on Atrazine. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00503.x Abstract: Atrazine continues to be the herbicide of greatest concern relative to contamination of surface waters in the United States (U.S.). The objectives of this study were to analyze trends in atrazine concentration and load in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) from 1992 to 2006, and to conduct a retrospective assessment of the potential aquatic ecosystem impacts caused by atrazine contamination. Located within the Central Claypan Region of northeastern Missouri, GCEW encompasses 72.5 km² of predominantly agricultural land uses, with an average of 21% of the watershed in corn and sorghum. Flow‐weighted runoff and weekly base‐flow grab samples were collected at the outlet to GCEW and analyzed for atrazine. Cumulative frequency diagrams and linear regression analyses generally showed no significant time trends for atrazine concentration or load. Relative annual loads varied from 0.56 to 14% of the applied atrazine, with a median of 5.9%. A cumulative vulnerability index, which takes into account the interactions between herbicide application, surface runoff events, and atrazine dissipation kinetics, explained 63% of the variation in annual atrazine loads. Based on criteria established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, atrazine reached concentrations considered harmful to aquatic ecosystems in 10 of 15 years. Because of its vulnerability, atrazine registrants will be required to work with farmers in GCEW to implement practices that reduce atrazine transport.     

National baseline survey of soil quality in the Netherlands

To determine background values of the 252 chemical compounds listed in Dutch legislation, a survey was designed with the aim of estimating percentiles of the cumulative frequency distributions and areal fractions exceeding the former, legislative reference values. Sampling locations were selected by probability sampling, so that in estimating the target quantities no model assumptions on the spatial variation were required, and valid estimates could be obtained by design-based inference. Strata in random sampling were formed by overlaying an aggregated soil map and land use map. For most of the heavy metals the areal fraction with concentrations in the topsoil (0-10 cm) exceeding the reference value was smaller than the allowable maximum of 5%. For these compounds a background value was determined smaller than the reference value. Exceptions were V, Co, Ba and Cu, for which a background value was defined (slightly) larger than the reference value.     

广州市不同粒径大气颗粒物有机提取物的致突变性研究

为了了解广州市大气气溶胶中不同粒径颗粒物中有机物的污染水平以及其对人体健康的影响 ,用 6段分级采样器分段采集 相似文献   

不同高度大气颗粒物中多环芳烃的粒径分布

在天津地区20m,40m和60m三个不同高度同步采集冬季大气颗粒物中PM10样品,测定了16种多环芳烃(PAHs)含量．不同高度PM10中PAHs的含量均表现出大气颗粒物中随高度先增后降的趋势,颗粒物质量中值直径(MMD)也呈现类似规律,但PAHs总浓度的MMD则呈向上递增的趋势．不同高度PAHs的粒径分布差别不大,高分子量的PAHs主要集中在空气动力学直径Dp＜2um的细颗粒上,而Dp＞2um的粗颗粒上低分子量的PAHs相对较多．     

基于系统分析原理对工业企业总体地震灾害的预测

以设备单体在一定地震裂度下的破坏概率为基础 ,应用相关的概率论知识和系统分析方法 ,根据系统的网络功能图 ,得到系统总体的震害预测。在此基础上 ,对系统的薄弱环节进行分析 ,从而为系统的抗震加固提供科学、合理的依据。此方法的建立使我国企业总体的震害预测和抗震加固变得科学、方便、可行。