Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

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Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

A review of the past,present and future of the European loss prevention and safety promotion in the process industries

In 2013, the European Federation of Chemical Engineering (EFCE) celebrates its 60th anniversary. EFCE has continually promoted scientific collaboration and supported the work of engineers and scientists in thirty European countries. As for its mission statement, EFCE helps European Society to meet its needs through highlighting the role of Chemical Engineering in delivering sustainable processes and products. Within this organizational framework the Loss Prevention Symposium series, organized throughout Europe on behalf of the Loss Prevention Working Party of the EFCE, represents a fruitful tradition covering a time span of forty years. The tri-annual symposium gathers experts and scientists to seek technical improvements and scientific support for a growingly safer industry and quality of life. Following the loss prevention history in this paper, a time perspective on loss prevention and its future is presented.     

A study of maintenance-related major accident cases in the 21st century

This paper is based on a review of 183 detailed, major accident investigation and analysis reports related to the handling, processing and storage of hydrocarbons and hazardous chemicals over a decade from 2000 to 2011. The reports cover technical, human and organizational factors. In this paper, the Work and Accident Process (WAP) classification scheme is applied to the accident reports with the intention of investigating to what extent maintenance has been a cause of major accidents and what maintenance-related causes have been the most frequent.The main objectives are: (1) to present more current overall statistics of maintenance-related major accidents, (2) to investigate the trend of maintenance-related major accidents over time, and (3) to investigate which maintenance-related major accident causes are the most frequent, requiring the most attention in the drive for improvement.The paper presents statistical analysis and interpretation of maintenance-related major accidents’ moving averages as well as data related to the types of facility, hazardous substances, major accidents and causes. This is based on a thorough review of accident investigation reports.It is found that out of 183 major accidents in the US and Europe, maintenance was linked to 80 (44%) and that the accident trend is decreasing. The results also show that “lack of barrier maintenance” (50%), “deficient design, organization and resource management” (85%) and “deficient planning/scheduling/fault diagnosis” (69%) are the most frequent causes in terms of the active accident process, the latent accident process and the work process respectively.     

陕北采油区灌木枯落叶对油污土壤环境的改良效应

采集陕北石油污染区典型荒地土壤,分别以3种石油污染水平(轻度污染15g/kg,中度污染30g/kg,重度污染45g/kg)油土混合培养后,施入当地9种常见灌木枯落叶进行室内分解培养试验120d,检测不同灌木枯落叶对油污土壤生物化学性质的影响.结果表明:柠条、沙棘、紫穗槐、沙蒿和小叶女贞枯落叶可明显促进3种水平油污土壤微生物的生长和土壤呼吸.柽柳、柠条、花棒和踏榔枯落叶可明显促进3种水平油污土壤碱性磷酸酶和脱氢酶活性.柠条、沙蒿、踏榔、小叶女贞、花棒、柽柳和紫穗槐枯落叶可明显增加3种水平油污土壤有机碳和速效K含量.爬地柏、沙棘和花棒枯落叶可明显提高3种水平油污土壤Fe、Mn和Zn的有效性.综合而言,柠条和踏榔枯落叶对3种水平油污土壤均有明显改良效果,紫穗槐枯落叶对轻度油污土壤、小叶女贞枯落叶对中度油污土壤,柽柳和紫穗槐枯落叶对重度油污土壤也均有较明显的改良效果.     

Municipal wastewater treatment in China: Development history and future perspectives

The history of China’s municipal wastewater management is revisited. The remaining challenges in wastewater sector in China are identified. New concept municipal wastewater treatment plants are highlighted. An integrated plant of energy, water and fertilizer recovery is envisaged. China has the world’s largest and still growing wastewater sector and water market, thus its future development will have profound influence on the world. The high-speed development of China’s wastewater sector over the past 40 years has forged its global leading treatment capacity and innovation ability. However, many problems were left behind, including underdeveloped sewers and sludge disposal facilities, low sustainability of the treatment processes, questionable wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent discharge standards, and lacking global thinking on harmonious development between wastewater management, human society and the nature. Addressing these challenges calls for fundamental changes in target design, policy and technologies. In this mini-review, we revisit the development history of China’s municipal wastewater management and identify the remaining challenges. Also, we highlight the future needs of sustainable development and exploring China’s own wastewater management path, and outlook the future from several aspects including targets of wastewater management, policies and technologies, especially the new concept WWTP. Furthermore, we envisage the establishment of new-generation WWTPs with the vision of turning WWTP from a site of pollutant removal into a plant of energy, water and fertilizer recovery and an integrated part urban ecology in China.     

土壤修复与改良的微生物技术

综述了国内外近几年来关于土壤污染与损伤的微生物修复技术,包括土壤污染的微生物修复技术和土壤改良的微生物技术,总结了各项技术的工作重点、类型和思路.     

完善排污许可制度体系,全面服务生态环境质量改善

《排污许可管理条例》的颁布,标志着以排污许可制为核心的固定污染源监管制度体系建设进入法治化发展的新阶段。当前应以《排污许可管理条例》的实施为契机,在抓好排污许可证数量的基础上狠抓质量提高,坚持走好精细化、科学化和信息化发展道路;在建立基本制度的基础上建成核心制度,推动排污许可制与环评、总量控制、生态环境统计、监督执法等相关生态环境监管制度的系统联动,扩大排污单位、环境要素覆盖面,强化固定污染源"一证式"执法监管和贯穿全周期监管,全面服务生态环境质量改善。     

空气污染指数改进方案公众参与调查

为进一步改进API(空气污染指数),提出了5个改进方案,并针对方案中的重点问题进行公众参与调查. 调查问题包括现行API能否反映空气污染状况以及灰霾状况;是否同意加入CO,O₃和PM_2.5指标;是否同意将API的计算时间调整为00:00─23:00;ρ(PM_2.5)限值如何设定. 结果表明:公众对API改进方案总体上持肯定意见;超过70%的人同意在API中加入CO,O₃和PM_2.5指标,并有50%以上的人同意根据我国实际情况制订ρ(PM_2.5)限值. 由于改进方案4中增加了CO,O₃和PM_2.5指标,且将API计算周期调整为00:00─23:00,并按照我国的研究成果提出了ρ(PM_2.5)限值,因此,方案4更贴近公众的意见.      

国家公园效果评价体系研究

建立国家公园是保护生物多样性和促进地方发展的重要途径之一,开展国家公园效果评价是了解国家公园功能发挥的有效途径。通过查阅大量文献及德尔菲法（Delphi）,确定了与国家公园效果相关的28个评价指标,同时以功能为主导,将评价指标归纳为5个功能指标群：保护功能指标群（7个评价指标）、科研功能指标群（6个评价指标）、游憩功能指标群（7个评价指标）、教育功能指标群（4个评价指标）和经济发展功能指标群（4个评价指标）,通过对评价指标的赋分（5分制原则）和计算权重,从而达到国家公园效果评价的量化,实现对国家公园建设效果的评价。     

北京市河流水生态健康时空异质性及改善路径研究

河流生态系统是人类社会得以生存与发展的基本条件,河流水生态健康对保障区域水安全,避免水灾害具有重要意义.随着城市化的不断推进,河流生态系统面临着巨大挑战,水生态风险及灾害呈现广发、频发和深发态势.通过汇总北京市五大流域河流水生态健康状况评估相关研究,识别区域水生态系统主要问题,诊断水生态健康问题产生的原因.结果表明,北...