A systems-based approach for modeling of microbiologically influenced corrosion implemented using static and dynamic Bayesian networks

Microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) is a microbial community assisted degradation of materials affecting chemical processing and oil and gas industries. MIC has been implicated in incidents involving loss of containment of hazardous hydrocarbons which have led to fires and explosions, economic and environmental impact. The interplay between abiotic environmental factors and dynamic biotic factors in MIC are poorly understood. There is a lack of mechanistic understanding of MIC and very few models are available to predict or assess MIC threat. Here we report on the development of a model to assess the susceptibility to MIC. The high-resolution model utilizes 60 independent nodes, including operational and historical failure analysis data, and is built by combining empirical relationships between the abiotic and biotic variables impacting MIC. Both static and dynamic Bayesian-network (BN) approaches were used to combine heuristic and quantitative states of variables to ultimately yield a susceptibility measure for MIC. A confidence-in-information metric was generated to reflect the amount of data used in the estimation. A susceptibility to MIC of 45%–60% was estimated by the model for ten different scenarios simulated using case-studies from literature. The susceptibility to MIC estimated by these scenarios was further interpreted in the context of these cases. This systems-based MIC model can be utilized as an independent estimator of susceptibility or can be incorporated as a sub-model within comprehensive safety threat assessment models currently utilized in industry.     

Mitigation of operational failures via an economic framework of reliability,availability, and maintainability (RAM) during conceptual design

Abnormal process situation may lead to tremendous negative impact on sustainability, wellbeing of workers and adjacent communities, company's profit, and stability of supply chains. Failure of equipment and process subsystems are among the primary causes of abnormal situations. The conventional approach in handling failure-based abnormal situations has usually focused on operational strategies. Such an approach overlooks the critical role of process design in mitigating failure, while simultaneously considering the effects of such failure on process economic performance. The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic methodology that accounts for failure early enough during the conceptual design stages. Once a base-case design is developed, the methodology starts by identifying the sources of failure that are caused by reliability issues including equipment, operational procedures, and human errors for a given process system or subsystem. This allows for the identification of critical process subsystem(s) that are more failure-prone or cause greater downtime than other subsystems. Bayesian updating and Monte Carlo techniques are utilized to determine the appropriate distributions for the failure and repair scenario(s), respectively, in question. Markov analysis is used to determine the system availability. Next, the process revenue is described as a function of inherent availability. The effects of failures are incorporated into profitability calculations to establish an economic framework for trading off failure and profitability. In the proposed framework, the economic potential of alternative design scenarios is evaluated and an optimization formulation with the objective of maximizing incremental return on investment (IROI) is utilized to make a design decision. A case study on an ethylene plant is solved to demonstrate the applicability and value of the proposed approach.     

The importance of (process safety) leadership

It is indeed an honour to be invited to contribute the inaugural Trevor Kletz & Sam Mannan Guest Perspective on Process Safety. Unfortunately I did not ever meet Trevor, though I worked at a plant he was a design consultant on, but I worked with Sam for several years, together focused on how we could improve process safety outcomes.For this paper I want to write about a key area in process safety that I believe underpins everything we do. If we get it really wrong, we can't come back from the brink. If we get it a little wrong, we can usually recover, with a lot of work and effort. If we get it right, things just work. So, what am I talking about, is it design, maintenance, operations? No, I am talking about leadership. This underpins everything else we do in process safety yet is an oft neglected aspect. I think this is a fitting start to this series, because both Trevor and Sam believed in effective communication, which is a key element of leadership. I hope it will set the scene for future articles to incorporate aspects of leadership when others will delve into more detailed topics.     

Thermal hazards analysis of styrene in contact with impurities

Styrene is a reactive monomer commonly used to produce polystyrene and other copolymers. Unintended thermal runaway polymerization reactions of styrene keep reoccurring and have led to catastrophic consequences. One of the possible causes of these runaway incidents involves the contamination of the styrene monomer by incompatible species, which was not adequately investigated and documented. This study focuses on the quantification of thermal runaway hazards of styrene in contact with a series of contamination substances by adopting calorimetric analysis. Both Differential Scanning Calorimeter (DSC) and Advanced Reactive System Screening Tool (ARSST) were employed to examine the exothermic characteristics of styrene mixed with contaminating substances at different concentration levels and mixing conditions. Key safety parameters of the exothermic reaction, such as the onset temperature, the overall heat release, the maximum self-heating rate, as well as the activation energy, were obtained. The results indicated that the thermal runaway polymerization of purified styrene was significantly altered by the presence of contaminant species. Water effectively retarded and quenched the runaway polymerization at a higher temperature range. Alkaline had no substantial effect on the thermal runaway characteristics. The presence of acid solution under both static contact and vigorous mixing condition significantly promoted the thermal polymerization of styrene. A trace amount of concentrated acid initiated violent exothermic activity even at room temperature; and the severity of the reaction was profoundly impacted by the mass-transfer. Our study demonstrates significant implications in the prevention of runaway incidents during transportation and storage of styrene.     

改进污径比计算方法及应用

为了使现行污径比更加科学合理,提出底标比、排标比和危害系数并用来对原污径比进行改进完善.以东辽河为例,对新污径比进行检验.结果表明,新污径比不仅能作为生态水质评价的指标,还能量化反映河流环境容量盈亏度.新污径比还可以更广泛地应用到水资源水质评价、水资源承载力计算和区域可持续发展等研究领域.     

Evaluating sustainable forest management strategies with the Analytic Network Process in a Pressure-State-Response framework

Nowadays forestry faces a complex management situation; the understanding of sustainable forest management (SFM) has gone far beyond the original meaning of sustainable yield of timber. SFM strategies should fulfil ecological, economic and social functions without causing damage to other ecosystems. In this understanding, forest management actions cannot be seen as isolated or mono-causal. In this case study, indicators for SFM are arranged in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework at forest management unit level. This framework links pressures on the environment caused by human activities with changes of environmental state (condition) parameters. Forest management also responds to these changes by instituting environmental and economic measures to reduce pressures and restore natural resources. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is utilized to evaluate the performance of four management strategies with regard to the PSR framework on SFM. Priorities of indicators and alternatives are modelled with the ANP resulting from the interconnections to other indicators and their respective cumulative importance. The approach allows for more detailed information on the network of human influences and their impacts on forest ecosystems and goes beyond the limitations of flat-dimensioned indicator sets.     

基于多层PDCA模式的动态集成化应急管理体系研究

应急管理体系是当今世界各国应对事故的重要手段之一,它的完善程度与事故后果的严重程度密切相关,这使得对应急管理体系的研究具有非常重要的现实意义。提出并构建了基于多层PDCA模式的动态集成化应急管理体系,该体系集动态性与集成化于一体,从现实需要的角度出发,解决了应急管理体系的现存问题,更为突出的特点是依据多层PDCA循环模式的运行方式,站在长期有效的高度保证了体系的全面持续改进。显然,无论是从逻辑还是从内容看,该体系都充分显示出动态集成、高效实用的优势。因此,在循环改进的运行方式下,应急管理体系的绩效必定螺旋上升。     

固氮植物篱改善退化坡耕地土壤养分状况的效果

在四川宁南县坡地农业实验站对固氮植物篱在坡耕地上防治水土流失和改良土壤的效果进行了长期定位研究．结果表明等高固氮植物篱在防治土壤养分退化方面效果明显：与传统顺坡种植（ＣＫ） 相比,在坡耕地上培植新银合欢（Ｌｅｕｃａｅｎａｌｅｕｃｏｃｅｐｈａｌａ） 等高植物篱和山毛豆（Ｔｅｐｈｒｏｓｉａ ｃａｎｄｉｄａ）等高植物篱,正常耕作３～６ ａ 后,作物带土壤全氮可增加８０％ ～１３０％ ,有机质增加２０％ ～４０％ ,有效钾和阳离子交换量等养分均有不同程度增加．由于肥力状况改善,等高植物篱处理的农作物产量也明显高于ＣＫ．     

Local people's perceptions as decision support for protected area management in Wolong Biosphere Reserve, China

This paper examines local people's knowledge, attitudes and perceptions towards Wolong Biosphere Reserve (WBR) and its management policies. Pertinent data were collected through a questionnaire survey and group discussions. This study revealed that local people's perceptions were affected by many factors, including education, gender, residence location, household size and acreage of land owned. Although most respondents had limited knowledge about WBR because of their absence in WBR management, they held a positive attitude towards WBR. An in-depth analysis of their attitudes and perceptions showed that two potential conflicts might affect biodiversity conservation and protected area management. One of them was the imbalance between the limited cropland holding and the oversupply of the labor force, and the other one was the increase in electricity price versus the decrease in economic incentives for the Natural Forest Protection Project. The study also revealed that relocation was considered unacceptable to most respondents. However, those residing far from the main road were willing to relocate more than those near the main road. Based on our studies, some recommendations are given for improvement of WBR management.     

沙河水库水质规划研究

沙河水库是两院居民主要的饮用水水源地,位于海南省.在管理不当的情况下,各种污染源排放的污染物会通过各种方式进入沙河水库中,最终对两院居民饮用水造成安全隐患.为此,制定和实施"沙河水库水体生态环境保护规划研究"是非常必要的.列出了沙河水库水质改善规划原则、规划范围与规划期、规划目标及规划具体实施措施.