基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析

针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。     

Driving concerns among older adults: Associations with driving skill,behaviors, and experiences

Objectives: The purpose of this investigation was to determine what older adults find most concerning about driving as they age and how these concerns are related to driving skill, behaviors, and experiences.

Methods: In partnership with the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, a sample of 751 older adults ages 65 and older completed an online survey between October 2017 and May 2018. A content analysis was used to code open-ended responses about driver concerns, and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between driving concerns and driving skill, behavior, and experiences.

Results: Eighty-four percent of participants reported at least one driving concern, with 44% concerned about others’ driving, 34% concerned about their own driving, and 24% concerned about driving conditions. The most frequently mentioned driving concerns were other drivers in general, driving at night, visual ability and awareness, and other drivers being aggressive or reckless. Being concerned with their own driving was significantly associated with decreased perceived driving skill and increased odds of experiencing negative driving experiences in the past year. Being concerned about others’ driving was associated with increased odds of wearing a seat belt (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]?=?2.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 7.00), having high perceived driving skills in emergency situations (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.14, 2.12), and getting in a near crash or collision in the past year (AOR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04, 2.18).

Conclusions: Older adult drivers are frequently concerned about their own driving as well as the driving of others. Implications for future research and health practice are discussed.     

Factors affecting use and nonuse of child safety car seats in Gorgan,Iran

Objective: Motor vehicle accidents, which are among the main causes of child mortality in Iran and the Middle East, impose staggering costs for the community. Ignoring use of safety devices for children in most motor vehicle crashes will lead to death or serious injury. Because few studies have been performed on effective and predictive factors regarding use of child safety seats, the purpose of this study was to examine the factors affecting the use and nonuse of child safety seats, along with the factors that can facilitate how a child safety seat is used.

Method: This study was conducted in the urban area of Gorgan using a questionnaire. Through random selection, 204 parents with at least one child, aged 8?years or younger, reported their knowledge about the benefits of using a child safety seat.

Results: The results showed that 80% of parents never use a child safety seat, and 13% always use a child safety seat. More than 93% thought that it was necessary to make usage of the child safety seat obligatory. In addition, 80% of parents believed that a child safety seat prevents children from injury in crashes. In addition, 38% of parents were not aware of child safety devices and child safety, less than 20% said that they did not use a child safety seat because their spouse did not support its use, and 28% of them thought that a child safety seat does not affect the safety of the child. In general, 91% of parents reported that if child safety seat use were mandated, the frequency of use would increase. A law on the use of child safety seats is a very important variable in their use, which can enhance the chance of using a child safety seat by 6.5 times.

Conclusion: Special instructions should be developed to create incentive strategies for using a child safety seat. Mandating the use of a child safety seat, equipping cars with a child safety seat, encouraging children to use it, and providing continuous education and training are important factors for increasing the use of child safety seats.     

Impact of human development on safety consciousness in construction

The International Labour Organization (ILO) reports that the risk of fatal occupational injuries in developing countries is almost twice as high as in developed countries, indicating a potential relationship between the fatality rates and the development level. The human development index (HDI), based on life expectancy, knowledge level and purchasing power parity, endorsed by the United Nations Development Programme, is a widely accepted measure of the development level. This study investigates the relationship between the HDI and the fatality rates reported by the ILO. A 23-country data set is used to demonstrate the general trend of the relationship followed by country-specific analyses for Australia, Spain, Hungary and Turkey. The study conducted is limited to fatal occupational injuries in construction, where the accidents are notoriously high. The results demonstrate a statistically significant inverse relationship between the fatality rates and the HDI.     

露天矿山隐伏盲空区精确探测及爆破优化设计

隐伏盲空区是严重威胁露天矿山正常采矿作业的安全隐患,应予以探明并处置。针对露天矿隐伏盲空区探测难度大、崩落处置爆破设计精度差等问题,以白马铁矿1号溜井盲空区为例,首先基于矿山历史资料,利用钻探手段,初步圈定盲空区异常分布范围;然后运用钻孔激光扫描设备进行三维精确扫描,获得盲空区塌腔三维形态和真实边界,并以实测数据为基础,利用逆向建模方法,构建盲空区三维可视化模型;最后根据盲空区的三维空间特征和分布条件,进行爆破分区及参数优化设计。结果表明:采用钻探圈定结合三维激光精确扫描建模的综合探测方法,可获得露天矿山盲空区的可靠信息,准确掌握盲空区垮塌现状,进而为制定更为精准的爆破设计方案提供重要依据,最终达到消除盲空区的目的。研究结果对保障矿山安全生产具有重要意义,同时可为类似工程提供有益参考。     

跨区域应急协作视角下化工园区空间布局的失衡与应对策略分析

随着工业化进程加快,我国化工园区呈现出数量逐年递增且集中分布的态势,增加了跨区域重大突发事件的风险,如何实现跨区域的应急协作成为化工园区安全规划所面临的重点与难点问题之一。基于此,搜集近15 a全国化工园区的安全事故,采用自组织特征映射神经网络分类方法与多元回归模型研究全国范围内化工园区安全事故的空间分布规律及影响因素,进而从风险分布与应急协作需求的匹配性角度讨论我国现有应急协作机制存在的潜在问题。研究结果表明:我国化工园区整体空间布局呈现出以区域优势为导向的趋势,其选址大多忽略了化工园区集中区域的高风险与应急能力不足的问题,这种布局的失衡使得政府无法形成高效的跨区域应急协作体制;化工园区数量上的增加并非是导致危机事故的主要原因,强调了化工园区自身特征与危机事故严重程度的相关性,区域间应急联动协作在化工园区危机应对过程中的重要作用;最后,从空间布局、跨区域协作角度提出化工园区区域应急协作的相应政策建议。     

飞行安全技术影响因素及其作用机制研究

为通过管控飞行安全技术的影响因素提高飞行员飞行技术水平,从信息感知、信息处理、判断决策和反应行动4个方面分析了影响飞行安全技术的因素,并对影响作用做出假设。采用问卷调查获取数据,并应用结构方程模型定量分析各因素对飞行安全技术的作用。研究结果表明:判断决策相关因素、信息处理相关因素、反应行动相关因素、信息感知相关因素对飞行安全技术的影响程度依次递减;平衡觉、运动觉、视觉、震动觉、听觉通过作用于飞行员的信息感知进而影响飞行安全技术且影响程度依次递减;飞行经验、注意、理论知识、记忆通过作用于飞行员的信息处理进而影响飞行安全技术且影响程度依次递减;空间定向、风险感知、逻辑推理、快速运算通过作用于飞行员的判断决策进而影响飞行安全技术且影响程度依次递减;动作协调性、动作准确性、动作及时性通过作用于飞行员的反应行动进而影响飞行安全技术且影响程度依次递减。     

基于动态元网络的地铁施工安全事故致因分析

为有效避免地铁施工安全事故的发生,将动态元网络的分析方法应用于地铁施工安全事故致因分析,建立地铁施工安全事故网络节点体系,提出重点控制因素。以杭州地铁一号线施工安全事故为例,在充分考虑人的主观能动性后,建立以人员、行为、事件和组织为节点的节点体系,确定节点的数量及节点之间的相互关系,建立施工安全事故网络模型并进行分析,对打击效果进行对比分析,找到比较理想的打击策略,确立节点的重要度排序,研究结果表明:应重点控制有效的监督相关节点,即可有效地避免或者减少此类事故的发生。得出的结论与事故通报结果基本相符,这为避免地铁施工安全事故提供了新的研究思路。     

特长隧道风仓接力通风关键参数及其效果研究

通过长斜井进入正洞施工的特长隧道,往往面临独头通风距离过长、工作面风量不足等问题,造成污染物难以在规定时间排出洞外。以衢宁铁路鹫峰山隧道风仓接力施工通风为依托,采用数值模拟方法研究了风仓长度、隔板长度及风机布置方式对轴流风机通风效率的影响,分析了原压入式通风和风仓接力通风洞内CO运移特性。结果表明,风仓长度从10 m增至25 m时,轴流风机通风效率大幅提高,风仓长度大于25 m时,对轴流风机通风效率的影响不大。设置中隔板会影响空气在风仓内的分流并产生较多旋流,从而降低风机通风效率;轴流风机远离斜井端对称布置,风仓内部风流的引流速度和引流范围最大,风流运动路径最优,通风效率最高。由于压入式通风受限于斜井断面尺寸及现场布置方式,当通风距离超过3 000 m后,无法满足洞内作业环境规定的条件。在正洞与斜井交叉部位设置密封的风仓,形成接力通风,能大幅度延长通风距离,提高通风效率,改善洞内空气质量。     

铜与铜包铝接地线缆短路熔断特性理论计算与试验

为研究用于高压电力系统的临时接地装置抗突然短路能力及短路火灾限制措施,通过铜导体Onderdonk公式的推广算法,得到铜包铝接地线缆熔断电流的理论计算方法,以6 300 kVA大容量变压器为电流源模拟实际工作中挂接地线时可能出现的短路熔断情况,对常用的铜材料接地线缆及轻质铜包铝材料接地线缆在10 kA以上短时大电流下的熔断过程进行了试验。结果表明:绝热过程下接地线缆熔断电流的理论计算结果偏严格,通过计算公式选取接地线缆截面积具有一定的安全裕度;理论等效截面下铜包铝线缆相比铜线缆更不容易发生熔断,12. 9 kA、16. 3 kA、21. 7 kA短路电流下60 mm^2铜层体积比为10%的铜包铝裸导线熔断时间比35 mm^2铜线分别增加32. 0%、30. 1%、24. 3%;外加阻燃护层可以增加铜线缆的熔断时间而对铜包铝线缆熔断时间的影响不明显,但外加护层可以显著减少铜包铝线缆迸溅熔珠的数量,降低熔珠的引燃能力,从而对短路火灾进行有效抑制。