我国防灾减灾领域学科发展及其专业设置——从学位管理制度谈起

我国高校在防灾减灾类人才培养中存在一些现实困境,如:灾害学的学科地位较低、防灾减灾类学科及专业设置不灵活、学校管理制度及其相关条例的约束等。从我国学位管理制度谈起,通过比较分析国内外高校专业设置与交叉学科发展情况,探讨我国防灾减灾领域学科发展及专业设置对防灾减灾人才培养造成的影响,并提出三点建议:一是加大我国学位管理制度的改革,确保落实高校办学自主权;二是对灾害科学的研究走向系统化、社会化,发展国内高等学校防灾减灾类专业本科教育;三是防灾减灾类专业课程设置从横向和纵向上都要体现综合和交叉的学科属性。     

Application of Agriculture‐Developed Demographic Analysis for the Conservation of the Hawaiian Alpine Wekiu Bug

Insects that should be considered for conservation attention are often overlooked because of a lack of data. The detailed information necessary to assess population growth, decline, and maximum range is particularly difficult to acquire for rare and cryptic species. Many of these difficulties can be overcome with the use of life table analyses and heat energy accumulation models common in agriculture. The wekiu bug (Nysius wekiuicola), endemic to the summit of one volcanic mountain in Hawaii, is a rare insect living in an environmentally sensitive alpine stone desert, where field‐based population assessments would be inefficient or potentially detrimental to natural and cultural resources. We conducted laboratory experiments with the insects by manipulating rearing temperatures of laboratory colonies and made detailed observations of habitat conditions to develop life tables representing population growth parameters and environmental models for wekiu bug phenology and demographic change. Wekiu bugs developed at temperatures only found in its environment on sunny days and required the thermal buffer found on cinder cones for growth and population increase. Wekiu bugs required approximately 3.5 months to complete one generation. The bug developed optimally from 26 to 30 °C, temperatures that are much higher than the air temperature attains in its elevational range. The developmental temperature range of the species confirmed a physiological reason why the wekiu bug is only found on cinder cones. This physiology information can help guide population monitoring and inform habitat restoration and conservation. The wekiu bug was a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and the developmental parameters we quantified were used to determine the species would not be listed as endangered or threatened. The use of developmental threshold experiments, life table analyses, and degree day modeling can directly inform otherwise unobservable habitat needs and demographic characteristics of extremely rare insects. Aplicación de Análisis Demográfico de Desarrollo Agrícola para la Conservación del Insecto Weiku Alpino Hawaiano     

自然灾害灾情划分指标研究

本文阐述了灾情分析中的两个基本方面，即损失的规模和损失的深度，提出了灾级和灾度的概念，对于影响灾级和灾度的主要指标也进行了分析。并就时间和空间变化对灾级划分界线的影响作了论述。     

泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标

通过对比单沟和区域泥石流危险性的评估方法 ,提出了利用影响度、危险度和危害度 3项指标判别汇流区泥石流入汇危险性的设想 ,分析了泥石流入汇可能引起堵江的影响因子。作为尝试 ,给出了判别指标的计算公式 ,经实例验证具有较好的实用性 ,可作为规划设计的技术依据。     

中国山区沟谷泥石流危险度的定量判定法

本文根据专家系统调查,确定了一次泥石流冲出物最大方量和泥石流暴发频率作为判定泥石流危险度的主要危险因子。运用灰色关联度分析,优选出10项判定泥石流危险度的次要危险因子,并根据关联序确定了它们的权重。在各危险因子等级划分的基础上,得出了泥石流危险度的定量计算公式。通过实例检验,证明该判定方法具有60％以上的可靠度。     

Thermal cracking of oils from waste plastics

Thermal cracking of decomposed waste plastic oil produces a good yield of olefins. The solvent extraction of such waste plastic oil seems to be efficient for increasing gas yields and recycling monomers. To assess the potential of monomer recovery from municipal waste plastics, the oils were cracked using a laboratory-scale quartz-tube reactor. The waste plastic oils were provided by two commercial plants of the Sapporo Plastic Recycle Co. and the Dohoh Recycle Center Co. in Japan. A model waste plastic oil made in a laboratory was also examined. Yields of ethene, propene, and other products were measured at different temperatures. Two-step pyrolysis reduces coking compared with the direct thermal degradation of plastics. The raffinates from waste plastic oils extracted by sulfolane were also cracked. The primary products were almost the same as those from nontreated oils. The maximum total gas yield was 78wt%–85wt% at 750°C, an increase of about 20wt% compared with that of nonextracted oil. Solvent extraction removes stable aromatic hydrocarbons such as styrene, which is more coked than cracked.     

火灾后钢筋混凝土损伤程度的灰关联分析

由于火灾对钢筋混凝土结构的影响存在不确定性,使得人们不能准确地确定火灾后钢筋混凝土结构的损伤程度,给评估和加固修复带来很大困难。本文运用灰色系统理论中灰关联分析数学模型定量分析了高温下钢筋混凝土梁的3种影响因素,并确定了各因素间的主次关系,为高温后钢筋混凝土结构的安全评估及修复加固提供了理论依据。     

可拓法评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性

为了量化煤矿瓦斯爆炸的可能性,并为防治瓦斯爆炸提供量化指标,借鉴可拓学原理,对煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性进行预评估。首先,详细阐述可拓学评估原理;接着,为了验证煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性可拓评估的可行性,结合某一煤矿实例,比选煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的评价指标,并确定煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的分类标准,构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估的经典域、节域和物元;然后,为了避免确定指标权重的人为主观因素的影响,提出用简单关联函数确定指标权重;最后,计算煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的关联函数值和关联度,确定瓦斯爆炸易发性的等级及其变量特征值。经计算,煤矿爆炸易发性的可拓评估结果为"很小"等级。同时,为了验证可拓评估结果的合理性,将其与模糊评估进行比较,两者所得评估结果相一致。从而表明:将可拓学应用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估是合理可行的。     

影响安全生产状况的经济社会发展指标及灰色关联度分析

为研究我国经济社会发展指标与安全生产状况之间的关系,首先对新中国建立以来安全生产状况的规律性作了分析研究。然后选取了与安全生产密切相关的7个经济社会发展指标,应用灰色系统理论的关联度分析法计算分析了各指标对安全生产状况的影响程度,得出该时期农业产值占GDP的比重对安全生产状况的影响最大,第三产业的影响其次,科技和教育经费的投入指标对安全生产状况的影响度较小的结论,并深入分析探讨了其内在原因。提出了我国在工业化进程中如何解决安全生产问题的意见和建议。     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。