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71.
In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example. 相似文献
72.
Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority. 相似文献
73.
Academic research and development (R&D) labs are a significant part of academic life. But there can be physical, environmental, and experiment quality risks associated to this activity. Academic labs can present specific experiments, which have associated risks for researchers. Academic labs are also characterized by a high turnover of students and many of them are not fully aware of the level of physical and environmental risks of their activity. Accidents in academic labs with injuries and loss of life are facts that have to be tackled through risk management approaches. The objective of this paper is to present an integrated management approach, tackling risk management and analysis methods. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) and PFMEA (Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) enabled, respectively, the analysis of safety and environmental risks. By quantifying the level of risk according to the type of experiment and the research context, it is possible to provide safety to the system. The resulting Digital Poka-Yoke – a mistake-proofing approach – has brought about the desired quality of results in experiments. The proposed approach was validated through a case study monitoring naphthenic corrosion experiments conducted by the Lab of Surface Electrochemistry and Corrosion (LSEC) at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR). As a consequence, this approach is currently in use at this lab. 相似文献
74.
Nowadays, pipelines have been extensively used for transporting oil and gas for long distances. Therefore, their risk assessment could help to identify the associated hazards and take necessary actions to eliminate or reduce the risk. In the present research, an artificial neural network (ANN) and a fuzzy inference system (FIS) were used to prepare a new model for pipeline risk assessment with higher accuracy. To reach this objective, the Muhlbauer method, as a common method for oil and gas pipeline risk assessment, was used for determining important and influential factors in the pipeline performance. Mamdani fuzzy model was developed in Matlab software by considering expert knowledge. The outcomes of this model were used to develop an ANN. To verify the developed model, the inter-phase shore pipe of phase 9–10 refinery in the South Pars Gas field was considered as a case study. The results showed that the proposed model gives a higher level of accuracy, precision, and reliability in terms of pipe risk assessment. 相似文献
75.
Lower flammability limit (LFL), upper flammability limit (UFL), auto-ignition temperature (AIT) and flash point (FP) are crucial hazardous properties for fire and explosion hazards assessment and consequence analysis. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model set was constructed by using expanded chemical mixture databases of chemical mixture hazardous properties. Machine learning based gradient boosting quantitative structure-property relationship (GB-QSPR) method is implemented for the first time to improve the model performance and prediction accuracy. The result shows that all developed models have significantly higher accuracy than other regular QSPR models, with the 5-fold cross-validation RMSE of LFL, UFL, AIT, and FP models being 1.06, 1.14, 1.08, and 1.17, respectively. All developed QSPR models can be used to estimate reliable chemical mixture hazardous properties and provide useful guidance in chemical mixture hazard assessment and consequence analysis. 相似文献
76.
Catchment-Wide Wetland Assessment and Prioritization Using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method TOPSIS 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
It is widely accepted that wetland ecosystems are under threat worldwide. Many communities are now trying to establish wetland
rehabilitation programs, but are confounded by a lack of objective information on wetland condition or significance. In this
study, a multi-criteria decision-making method, TOPSIS (the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution),
was adapted to assist in the role of assessing wetland condition and rehabilitation priority in the Clarence River Catchment
(New South Wales, Australia). Using 13 GIS data layers that described wetland character, wetland protection, and wetland threats,
the wetlands were ranked in terms of condition. Through manipulation of the original model, the wetlands were prioritized
for rehabilitation. The method offered a screening tool for the managers in choosing potential candidate wetlands for rehabilitation
in a region. 相似文献
77.
Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous
areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment
and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced
major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested
in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that
was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard
maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication
of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution
such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard
maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae
nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable
extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated
flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed. 相似文献
78.
79.
The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk,
namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation
of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles
(SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small
potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed
with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed,
such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In
this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to
200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional
point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk
contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain
range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has
deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions
and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project
aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care. 相似文献
80.
Methods for integrated assessment 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
Integrated assessment is an approach that seeks to involve all disciplines in policy-relevant assessment. The process aims
to encompass environmental science, technology and policy problems. The aim is to establish an overview of the environmental
issue in question that attempts to avoid the mistakes of the past associated with narrow, one-sided or unidimensional approaches.
A number of methods are available for such assessments. However, they are also subject to a number of limitations, difficulties
and dilemmas. Integrated methods are inherently complicated and the tradition is that only experts are involved. New more
inclusionary procedures have to be devised in order to involve all stakeholders. They have to be involved in the framing of
the issue and in the value judgements associated with the approach. The dilemmas cannot be solved by integrated approaches,
but they can be mitigated via proper identification, analysis and evaluation of the gains and losses involved. In structuring
the analysis the existence of ignorance has to be accounted for and communicated to the managers and the political decision
makers. The ignorance/uncertainty aspects can be partially accommodated for via an intensification of feasible monitoring
and research so as to minimise the risks of unpleasant surprises.
Electronic Publication 相似文献