基于人差错纠正能力的人因可靠性模型研究

根据人-机系统中人的操作行为具有时序性和差错可纠正性的特点,结合船舶舱室行为形成主因子,开展船舶舱室人因可靠性研究。以人因失误的时序性和差错纠正参数为基础,建立人-机系统中操作者行为模式和人因失误事件树模型。通过对人的差错纠正能力的分析,开展人因可靠性量化模型纠正理论研究。最后,以船舶舱室操作台的监控任务人因可靠性为例进行量化计算,定量评估操作人员执行任务的可靠度。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Modeling Nutrient Export From Coastal California Watersheds

Nitrate and phosphate export coefficient models were developed for coastal watersheds along the Santa Barbara Channel in central California. One approach was based on measurements of nutrient fluxes in streams from specific land use classes and included a watershed response function that scaled export up or down depending on antecedent moisture conditions. The second approach for nutrient export coefficient modeling used anthropogenic nutrient loading for land use classes and atmospheric nutrient deposition to model export. In an application of the first approach to one watershed, the nitrate and phosphate models were within 20% of measured values for most storms. When applied to another year, both nitrate and phosphate models generally performed adequately with annual, storm‐flow, and base‐flow values within 20% of measured nutrient loadings. Less satisfactory results were found when applied to neighboring watersheds with difference percentages of land use and hydrologic conditions. Application of the second approach was less successful than the first approach.     

提高地震台网近震速报精度的一个方法——和达法

本文对和达曲线法鉴别近震直达P波和直达S波的原理进行了详细的讨论,得出确定和达曲线参数的基本公式及用来表示S-P到时差与P到时线性相关程度的相关系数r的计算方法.讨论了利用和达曲线在台网定位中的应用方法.最后研制了利用和达曲线提高震相识别精度的应用程序,并以实例说明该程序的用法.     

跨区域突发事件应急协调机制实现途径探究

突发事件日益呈现出跨区域的特点,研究省内跨区域突发事件应急合作机制已经势在必行。在合作机制中协调性是应对跨区域突发事件的关键因素之一。本文以广东省为例,在分析跨区域突发事件应急机制的基础上,从组织机构、法律规章、跨区域应急文化、资源保障及技术支撑5个方面探讨跨区域应急协调机制的实现途径。     

基于改进风险矩阵法的配气站地震事件序列分析*

为了对天然气配气站进行抗震安全评估,以某天然气配气站为研究对象,通过分析地震事件序列,建立风险矩阵模型,研究系统失效原因及失效概率,评估事件发生后果。结果表明:事件C5,C6风险值相对较低,分别为18.75和15.24;风险矩阵模型能有效减小尖锐边界影响,为配气站采取抗震措施提供理论依据。     

基于事理图谱的电力安全事故预控方法*

为解释全国电力安全事故的演化规律并为预控事故的发生,提出电力安全事故事理图谱的构建与推演方法。以国家能源局发布的全国电力安全生产情况为数据源,使用规则模板提取事件槽对;利用Word2vec训练词向量,通过事件槽相似度计算泛化事件槽,并以热力图矩阵记录泛化权重;采用Neo4j构建事故事理图谱,以泛化权重和事件链的方向预测事故走向。结果表明:方法能够较好地揭示事故演化的关键节点、预演电力安全事故发展路径,为事故的预控提供1种有效的知识服务方案。     

温州城市不同下垫面径流中无机氮的含量及初期冲刷效应

在温州两个采样区分别监测了4场降雨事件,选取交通干道、停车场、小区屋面、小区路面、城市排水系统汇流口、草地等6种下垫面,测定地表降雨径流中溶解铵态氮（NH＋4-N）、溶解硝态氮（NO-3-N）、溶解亚硝态氮（NO-2-N）的含量及基本理化指标.结果表明,温州城市降雨径流中NH＋4-N、NO-3-N和NO-2-N的降雨事件平均浓度（EMC）值分别介于0.40～5.55、0.01～4.70、0～0.87mg·L-1（以N计）之间,九山外河区域氮污染比山下河区域严重,交通干道、居民生活区是氮污染严重的地方,应加以重视.多数下垫面径流中溶解态无机氮以NH＋4-N为主,比例可达50%以上,九山外河区域各下垫面径流中NH＋4-N普遍超过了地表水环境V类水标准.除小区路面以外,各下垫面径流多次出现NH＋4-N的初期冲刷效应,仅小区屋面和汇流口径流中出现过NO--N初期冲刷效应.     

Influence of different weather events on concentrations of particulate matter with different sizes in Lanzhou, China

The formation and development of weather events has a great impact on the diffusion, accumulation and transport of air pollutants, and causes great changes in the particulate pollution level. It is very important to study their influence on particulate pollution. Lanzhou is one of the most particulate-polluted cities in China and even in the world. Particulate matter (PM) including TSP, PM_>10, PM_2.5-10, PM_2.5 and PM_1.0 concentrations were simultaneously measured during 2005-2007 in Lanzhou to evaluate the influence of three kinds of weather events - dust, precipitation and cold front - on the concentrations of PM with different sizes and detect the temporal evolution. The main results are as follows: (1) the PM pollution in Lanzhou during dust events was very heavy and the rate of increase in the concentration of PM_2.5-10 was the highest of the five kinds of particles. During dust-storm events, the highest peaks of the concentrations of fine particles (PM_2.5 and PM_1.0) occurred 3 hr later than those of coarse particles (PM_>10 and PM_2.5-10). (2) The major effect of precipitation events on PM is wet scavenging. The scavenging rates of particles were closely associated with the kinds of precipitation events. The scavenging rates of TSP, PM_>10 and PM_2.5-10 by convective precipitation were several times as high as those caused by frontal precipitation for the same precipitation amount, the reason being the different formation mechanism and precipitation characteristics of the two kinds of precipitation. Moreover, there exists a limiting value for the scavenging rates of particles by precipitation. (3) The major effect of cold-front events on particles is clearance. However, during cold-front passages, the PM concentrations could sometimes rise first and decrease afterwards, which is the critical difference in the influence of cold fronts on the concentrations of particulate pollutants vs. gaseous pollutants.     

准组织化:“互联网+线上应急救援”的实践路径和现实困境*—以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件为例

为响应我国应急管理现代化和信息化建设需要,采用参与式观察、网络民族志和深度访谈方法,从准组织化集体行动视角切入,对河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件中救援模式相对成熟的“互联网+线上应急救援”实践路径和现实困境进行探讨。研究结果表明:线上应急救援实践路径涵盖聚合、运转、高效、离散4个阶段,且以持续不断的行动流呈现,具有准组织化集体行动特征;同时,线上救援形式面临“合法性”不确定、救援质量不稳定、风险评估主观性和政府正式沟通渠道有限性等现实困境,研究结果可为我国应急管理信息化建设提供参考。